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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 128 pages

BMI View: We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Central Asian telecommunications market as a whole. There are some growth opportunities in the region, particularly with regard to 3G and 4G technology Uptake. Nevertheless, state interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the course of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned MegaCom and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better compete in the mobile market. This therefore does not appear to be a risk that is going to end in the short or long term. Kazakhstan is the most attractive of the region and its ascension to the WTO in June 2015 should lead to wide-scale privatisation of state-owned enterprises, Including in the telecoms sector. Transitions to 3G will continue to be vital across the region and though 4G is available, it will remain too expensive for mass uptake.

Key Data

-Altel, the mobile subsidiary of state-owned incumbent operator Kazakhtelecom, reportedly reached 2.1mn subscribers as of May 15 2015, representing annual growth of around 100%. The company expected to reach 3mn subscribers by the end of 2015, as it continued the rollout of its 2G/3G/4G network across the country. Altel is the only licensed provider of 4G in Kazakhstan, a situation which has been criticised by rival operators in the mobile sector. Altel also planned to stop providing services over CDMA technology on July 1 2015.

-Kyrgyzstan's operators MegaCom, Sky Mobile (Beeline) and NurTelecom's mobile subsidiary O! registered 67.66% (around 1.9mn), 80.25% (2.2mn) and 79.49% (1.5mn) of their respective SIM cards as of May 1, according to the National Communications Agency. All operators were required to register their SIM cards by August 8. The combined total of 5.6mn registrations to date implies that the operators now need to register around an extra 2mn SIMs by the deadline.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Key Data 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
Kazakhstan 12
Structural Trends 12
Fixed Line 13
Broadband 14
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) 15
Kyrgyzstan 16
Fixed Line 17
Broadband 17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2012-2019) 18
Tajikistan 19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Tajikistan 2012-2019) 19
Mobile 19
Fixed Line 20
Broadband 21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Tajikistan 2012-2019) 22
Turkmenistan 22
Mobile 22
Fixed Line 23
Broadband 24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2019) 25
Uzbekistan 26
Fixed Line 27
Broadband 27
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2012-2019) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index, Q1 2016 32
Market Overview 34
Kazakhstan 34
Mobile 34
Table: Kazakhstan 34
Fixed Line 40
Internet/Broadband 42
Pay-TV 45
Kyrgyzstan 48
Mobile 48
Table: Kyrgyzstan In Regional Perspective 48
Mobile 48
Market Share And Net Additions 50
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, March 2015 52
Fixed Line 57
Internet/Broadband 57
Tajikistan 60
Mobile 60
Table: Tajikistan 60
Mobile Growth 61
Market Share And Net Additions 62
Usage (MOU/ARPU) 63
Fixed Line 65
Internet/Broadband 65
Turkmenistan 67
Mobile 67
Table: Turkmenistan 67
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, June 2015 69
Fixed Line 74
Internet/Broadband 74
Uzbekistan 77
Table: Uzbekistan 77
Mobile 77
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, September 2015 80
Fixed Line 86
Broadband 87
Regulatory Development 90
Regulatory Overview 90
Kazakhstan 90
Table: Kazakhstan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 90
Kyrgyzstan 93
Table: Kyrgyzstan - Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities 93
Tajikistan 95
Table: Tajikistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 95
Turkmenistan 97
Table: Turkmenistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 97
Uzbekistan 99
Table: Uzbekistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 99
Competitive Landscape 101
Table: Key Players - Central Asia Telecoms Sector 101
Company Profile 102
Kazakhtelecom 102
Kyrgyztelecom 107
Tajiktelecom 111
Uzbektelecom 114
Demographic Forecast 117
Demographic Outlook 117
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 118
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 118
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 119
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 119
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 120
Glossary 122
Table: Glossary Of Terms 122
Methodology 124
Industry Forecast Methodology 124
Sources 126
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 126
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 127
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 128

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