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"Total telecoms retail revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific will grow at a CAGR of 2.3%, increasing from USD278 billion in 2015 to USD319 billion in 2021."

Competition is strong in the telecoms market in emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) due to the presence of three or more operators in each key market (except Philippines), and pressure on pricing has restricted growth in this region. Revenue for core services (voice and messaging) will decline, but growth in mobile data, IoT, fixed broadband and IPTV services will compensate for this, generating positive overall growth during 2015-2021.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:
- a 5-year forecast of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for EMAP, as a whole and for 11 key countries
- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
- an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
- a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led research programmes and our consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/EMAP-Nov2016.

REPORT COVERAGE


Regions modelled:

- Emerging AsiaPacific (EMAP)

Countries modelled individually
- Bangladesh
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Myanmar
- Pakistan
- Philippines
- Sri Lanka
- Thailand
- Vietnam


Key performance indicators

Connections
Mobile
- Handset, mobile broadband1, IoT2
- Prepaid, contract
- 2G, 3G, 4G/5G
- Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
- Narrowband voice, VoBB
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Voice traffic
Fixed and mobile
- Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue
Mobile
- Service3 , retail
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset, mobile broadband1 , IoT2
- Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed
- Service3 , retail
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


ARPU
Mobile:
- SIMs, handset
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset voice, data

Table Of Contents

The Emerging Asia-Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021
Executive summary
9.Telecoms retail revenue for emerging Asia-Pacific will continue to grow at a 2.3% CAGR, despite a decline in core voice and messaging revenue
10.Increasing mobile data traffic and smartphone penetration will result in strong mobile data revenue growth in EMAP
11.Operator strategies and government programs will determine the growth of fixed networks
12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in EMAP
13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15.Geographical coverage: National broadband initiatives and advancements in 4G are driving up the number of connections in Malaysia and Thailand
16.Market context: Malaysia has the highest mobile SIM population penetration and fixed broadband household penetration in EMAP
17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile data, IoT, fixed broadband and IPTV will drive telecoms retail revenue growth in EMAP
18.Mobile penetration: Consumers in EMAP countries will slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour
19.Mobile connections: 4G will grow strongly, accounting for 50% of all mobile connections in EMAP by the end of the forecast period
20.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow to 69% of all handsets in EMAP by 2021 as LTE penetration increases
21.Mobile broadband: Mobile broadband will be relevant for countries with low fixed coverage and for mobile workers
22.Mobile ARPU: Pricing pressure due to increasing competition in EMAP will bring down the overall ARPU
23.Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic is expected to grow faster than mobile data revenue
24.Fixed services: Increased user demand drives fixed infrastructure investments, which increases the number of fixed connections
25.Fixed broadband: Large fibre deployments and cable TV digitisation characterise the EMAP region
26.Key drivers at a glance for each market in emerging Asia-Pacific
27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
28.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
29.Individual country forecasts
30.China: China will remain unique because although it is an emerging market, it has world-leading advanced technologies
31.China - mobile: MVNO growth will slow down and IoT will drive mobile population penetration in the long term
32.China - fixed: Operators and ISPs in China will continue to carry out ambitious investment plans for NGA deployment
33.Indonesia: Both mobile data and fixed broadband services will experience strong growth in Indonesia
34.Indonesia - mobile: Handset data growth rate will fall due to competitive pricing pressures
35.Indonesia - fixed: Entry of new players and aggressive competition will push ASPU downwards
36.Malaysia: Total telecoms retail revenue will decline slowly due to market saturation in Malaysia
37.Malaysia - mobile: Pricing wars are hampering the effective monetisation of 4G data
38.Malaysia - fixed: Fixed network expansion in new areas will drive growth in this market
39.Philippines: Telecoms retail revenue in Philippines will grow at a CAGR of 4.6% during 2015-2021
40.Philippines - mobile: Operators will aggressively expand their 4G networks until 2018
41.Philippines - fixed: Operators are investing in increased fibre connectivity, expanding into more villages and metro areas
42.Thailand: Mobile handset data growth will be slow, despite rapidly growing data traffic, mainly due to competitive pricing
43.Thailand - mobile: 2G decommissioning will help user migration to higher speeds (3G/4G)
44.Thailand - fixed: Next-generation access networks will drive the growth of multi-play services
45.Vietnam: The overall growth of Vietnam's telecoms market will start to decline following a period of rapid development
46.Vietnam - mobile: Mobile penetration is already high and only mild growth is forecast, unless new drivers such as a 4G launch emerge
47.Vietnam - fixed: The fixed broadband market in Vietnam will continue to experience healthy growth in the future
48.About the authors and Analysys Mason
49.About the authors
50.About Analysys Mason
51.Research from Analysys Mason
52.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, emerging Asia- Pacific, 2015-2021
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia- Pacific
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia- Pacific, 2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015- 2021
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021 5
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, emerging Asia- Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021), by country, emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), China, 2011-2021
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, China, 2015-2021
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, 2015-2021
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, China, 2011- 2021
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2011-2021
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, 2011-2021
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, China, 2011-2021
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, China
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Indonesia, 2011-2021
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Indonesia, 2015-2021
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, 2015-2021
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2011- 2021
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2011-2021
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, 2011-2021
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Indonesia, 2011-2021
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Malaysia, 2011-2021
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Malaysia, 2015-2021
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, 2015-2021
Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2011- 2021
Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2011-2021
Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia, 2011-2021
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Malaysia, 2011-2021
Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Philippines, 2011-2021
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Philippines, 2015-2021
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Philippines, 2015-2021
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Philippines, 2011-2021
Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Philippines, 2011-2021
Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Philippines, 2011-2021
Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Philippines, 2011-2021
Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Thailand, 2011-2021
Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Thailand, 2015-2021
Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, 2015-2021
Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Thailand, 2011- 2021
Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2011-2021
Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, 2011-2021
Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Thailand, 2011-2021
Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Vietnam, 2011-2021
Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Vietnam, 2015-2021
Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, 2015-2021
Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2011- 2021
Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2011-2021
Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, 2011-2021
Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Vietnam, 2011-2021
Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam

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