Opportunities and Pitfalls in the Mobile Broadcast TV Market, 2006 - 2012 (Review Report)

Opportunities and Pitfalls in the Mobile Broadcast TV Market, 2006 - 2012 (Review Report)

Introduction

This brief addresses the adoption of mobile broadcast TV in North America, Europe and Asia-Pac. Datamonitor considers that there will be notable opportunities in the sector, despite the fact that the initial hype of subscriber growth might not be met.

Scope

Outlines key trends in the mobile broadcast TV sector including recent launches, trails and dynamics that are affecting the adoption of the service. Highlights different mobile broadcast TV business models, service flows and revenue streams including broadcast led, MNO led and wholesale approaches. Outlines benefits and challenges with each different bearer technology including DVB-H, MediaFLO, DAB-IP and DMB-T. Outlines mobile broadcast TV subscription growth from 2006 - 2012 in 22 countries across Europe, North America and Asia-Pac.

Highlights

Datamonitor considers that there are significant barriers for mass adoption for mobile broadcast TV and that addressing these issues will be fundamental for the growth of the service. Barriers include spectrum allocation, device functionality and competition from alternative entertainment sources. Broadcast video content will have to adapt to the mobile environment. These changes will be driven by both user consumption habits and the functionality of the handsets themselves. Datamonitor considers that the repurposing of content will be essential in adding value to services and further promoting mass adoption. Datamonitor predicts at the end of 2006 there were around 4.4 million mobile broadcast TV subscribers. This subscriber base is forecasted to grow to c65.6 million in 2010 and c155.6 million by 2012 with a CAGR of 66.2%.

Reasons to Purchase

Gain insight into key challenges facing the widespread implementation and adoption for mobile broadcast TV services. Understand different bearer technologies and the challenges and benefits with each including power consumption and spectrum capacity demands. Access forecasts for service uptake and revenue potential in both mature and developing markets.

DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
METHODOLOGY 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Introduction 2
The mobile broadcast TV market 2007 (Market Focus) 2
The mobile broadcast TV value chain (Strategy Focus) 2
The mobile broadcast TV format war (Technology Focus) 3
Databooks 3
THE MOBILE BROADCAST TV MARKET 2007 (MARKET FOCUS) 8
Summary 8
Video content becomes an integral part of handset functionality 8
Mobile phone growth is escalating - particularly in Asia-Pac 9
What is mobile broadcast television? 10
Consumers desire multifunctional audio-visual handsets 11
Live services provide mixed messages regarding potential adoption habits 11
Trials aim to make the jump to live services in a variety of markets during 2007 11
DVB-H set to have the strongest foothold in Europe with services already deployed 12
3 Italia illustrates strong adoption despite missing subscriber targets 12
Virgin Mobile and BT Movio mobile broadcast service has lackluster responses from consumers 12
DigitAlb launch free DVB-H service to consumers in Albania 13
North America begins to go live in 2007 with Verizon and AT&T 13
Asia-Pac is an increasingly complicated and diverse mobile broadcast market 13
Japan and South Korea shows strong mobile broadcast growth 13
Barriers for adoption could hinder the uptake of mobile broadcast TV services 14
Spectrum capacity remains a hindrance for adoption - although not as much as originally expected 15
Certain device constraints still need to be overcome 15
Competition from alternative content sources is the biggest issue for adoption 16
Consumer education is the most important issue - you need to see it to believe it 17
Asia-pacific set to continue dominance of mobile broadcast TV usage 17
Strong growth expected - but not as quickly as first thought 18
Asia-Pacific expected to have the most subscribers by 2012 19
Germany is expected to be Europe's largest market with Italy not far behind by 2012 19
USA expected to be the largest national market by 2012 21
China expected to be the largest Asia-Pacific market by 2012 21
Market outlook for mobile broadcast TV remains positive - but with reservations 23
THE MOBILE BROADCAST TV VALUE CHAIN (STRATEGY FOCUS) 24
Summary 24
Content providers aim for cross-platform distribution and to expand audiences 25
Multiple content distribution looks to expand audience reach and brand through innovative delivery 25
Mobile broadcast TV has unique time and place usage habits 26
Mobile broadcast TV highlights a potential 'new primetime' for content viewing 26
Consumers watch mobile broadcast TV services on-the-go but also, surprisingly, at home 27
Repurposing content will be essential to promote service adoption 28
Mobile network operators look to add value to their network and generate revenue 29
Change and path dependency: creating positive network externalities through mobile broadcast TV 29
Revenue generation is not considered as the primary driver for mobile broadcast TV adoption 30
Interactivity through SMS and MMS could generate revenue for mobile broadcast TV players 30
Global mobile broadcast TV revenue is expected to show substantial growth until 2012 30
Mobile broadcast TV can be implemented through a variety of business models 31
Outlining different business models: assessing revenue streams and services flows 31
Broadcast led approaches will be particularly attractive to free-to-air services 32
Mobile operator led business models creates the MNO as a potential broadcaster 33
Wholesale business models offer less risk for MNOs and broadcasters 34
Subscription models will be the primary business model initially 35
Advertising models has potential as long as ROI is met and a large subscriber base is established 35
Potential opportunities for players in a limited market 36
THE MOBILE BROADCAST TV FORMAT WAR (TECHNOLOGY FOCUS) 37
Summary 37
Effective video management is essential for mobile broadcast TV services 37
Traditional broadcast communications providers expanding into the mobile broadcast TV environment 37
The generic mobile broadcast TV infrastructure value chain 38
The physical creation of content remains similar to most broadcast services 38
Mobile broadcast service management: advantaging from scalable solutions 39
Scalable and content agnostic solutions are increasingly important 40
Competing bearer technologies provide different challenges and benefits for providers 40
DAB derivative solutions are currently available across the globe 41
Spectrum availability is already present for DAB derivative solutions in most regions 42
Time to market is one of the biggest benefits for DAB derivative solutions 42
Challenges for DAB derivative solutions include network infrastructure elements and receiver performance 42
MediaFLO provides a potential walled garden approach for mobile broadcast TV services 43
MediaFLO technologies look for UHF, VHF and L-Band spectrum capacity 44
FLO offers benefits through guaranteed spectrum space and greater channel capabilities 44
A closed environment might prove detrimental in the long-run 44
DVB-H service provides an open solution based from traditional digital broadcasting technology 44
Spectrum capacity issues remain and issue in some markets for DVB-H services 46
DVB-H technology benefits from open standards and strong commercial backing 46
Spectrum remains a particular challenge - particularly in US service deployment 46
Growing potential for unified mobile broadcast TV systems in the future 47
Open standards are the way forward for mobile broadcast TV adoption 47
Promoting interoperability: Qualcomm's Universal Broadcast Model (UBM) chip 47
Consumers are technology agnostic 47
THE MOBILE BROADCAST TV MARKET: SUBSCRIBER NUMBERS, 2006 - 2012 (DATABOOK) 49
Introduction 49
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in North America, 2006 - 2012 50
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the USA, 2006 - 2012 51
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Canada, 2006 - 2012 52
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Europe, 2006 - 2012 53
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Benelux, 2006 - 2012 54
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in France, 2006 - 2012 55
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in France, 2006 - 2012 55
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Germany, 2006 - 2012 56
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Spain, 2006 - 2012 57
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the UK, 2006 - 2012 58
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the Nordics, 2006 - 2012 59
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Italy, 2006 - 2012 60
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the New EU 10, 2006 - 2012 61
Mobile Broadcast TV subscribers in RoE, 2006 - 2012 62
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in RoWE, 2006 - 2012 63
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Asia-Pac, 2006 - 2012 64
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in China, 2006 - 2012 65
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Japan, 2006 - 2012 66
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Malaysia, 2006 - 2012 67
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Singapore, 2006 - 2012 68
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Hong Kong, 2006 - 2012 69
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in India, 2006 - 2012 70
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in South Korea, 2006 - 2012 71
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in New Zealand, 2006 - 2012 72
Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Australia, 2006 - 2012 73
THE MOBILE BROADCAST TV MARKET: SUBSCRIPTION REVENUE NUMBERS, 2006 - 2012 74
Introduction 74
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in North America, 2006 - 2012 75
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the USA, 2006 - 2012 76
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Canada, 2006 - 2012 77
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Europe, 2006 - 2012 78
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Benelux, 2006 - 2012 79
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in France, 2006 - 2012 80
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Germany, 2006 - 2012 81
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Spain, 2006 - 2012 82
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the UK, 2006 - 2012 83
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the Nordics, 2006 - 2012 84
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Italy, 2006 - 2012 85
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the New EU 10, 2006 - 2012 86
Mobile Broadcast TV subscription revenue in RoE, 2006 - 2012 87
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in RoWE, 2006 - 2012 88
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue Asia-Pac, 2006 - 2012 89
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in China, 2006 - 2012 90
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Japan, 2006 - 2012 91
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Malaysia, 2006 - 2012 92
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue Singapore, 2006 - 2012 93
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Hong Kong, 2006 - 2012 94
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in India, 2006 - 2012 95
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in South Korea, 2006 - 2012 96
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in New Zealand, 2006 - 2012 97
Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Australia, 2006 - 2012 98
APPENDIX 99
Definitions 99
Further reading 100
Ask the analyst 100
List of Tables
Table 1: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in North America, 2006 - 2012 50
Table 2: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the USA, 2006 - 2012 51
Table 3: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Canada, 2006 - 2012 52
Table 4: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Europe, 2006 - 2012 53
Table 5: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Benelux, 2006 - 2012 54
Table 6: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in France, 2006 - 2012 55
Table 7: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Germany, 2006 - 2012 56
Table 8: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Spain, 2006 - 2012 57
Table 9: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the UK, 2006 - 2012 58
Table 10: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the Nordics, 2006 - 2012 59
Table 11: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Italy, 2006 - 2012 60
Table 12: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the New EU 10 61
Table 13: Mobile Broadcast TV subscribers in RoE, 2006 - 2012 62
Table 14: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in RoWE, 2006 - 2012 63
Table 15: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Asia-Pac, 2006 - 2012 64
Table 16: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in China, 2006 - 2012 65
Table 17: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Japan, 2006 - 2012 66
Table 18: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Malaysia, 2006 - 2012 67
Table 19: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Singapore, 2006 - 2012 68
Table 20: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Hong Kong, 2006 - 2012 69
Table 21: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in India, 2006 - 2012 70
Table 22: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in South Korea, 2006 - 2012 71
Table 23: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in New Zealand, 2006 - 2012 72
Table 24: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Australia, 2006 - 2012 73
Table 25: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in North America, 2006 - 2012 75
Table 26: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the USA, 2006 - 2012 76
Table 27: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Canada, 2006 - 2012 77
Table 28: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Europe, 2006 - 2012 78
Table 29: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Benelux, 2006 - 2012 79
Table 30: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in France, 2006 - 2012 80
Table 31: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Germany, 2006 - 2012 81
Table 32: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Spain, 2006 - 2012 82
Table 33: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the UK, 2006 - 2012 83
Table 34: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the Nordics, 2006 - 2012 84
Table 35: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Italy, 2006 - 2012 85
Table 36: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the New EU 10 86
Table 37: Mobile Broadcast TV subscription revenue in RoE, 2006 - 2012 87
Table 38: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in RoWE, 2006 - 2012 88
Table 39: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue Asia-Pac, 2006 - 2012 89
Table 40: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in China, 2006 - 2012 90
Table 41: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Japan, 2006 - 2012 91
Table 42: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Malaysia, 2006 - 2012 92
Table 43: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue Singapore, 2006 - 2012 93
Table 44: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Hong Kong, 2006 - 2012 94
Table 45: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in India, 2006 - 2012 95
Table 46: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in South Korea, 2006 - 2012 96
Table 47: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in New Zealand, 2006 - 2012 97
Table 48: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Australia, 2006 - 2012 98
List of Figures
Figure 1: Mobile subscribers including pre-pay, 2006-2012 9
Figure 2: Simplified model for mobile video consumption 10
Figure 3: Crossroads of mobile broadcast TV 14
Figure 4: Global mobile broadcast TV subscribers, 2006 - 2012 18
Figure 5: Regional comparison of mobile broadcast TV subscribers, 2006 - 2012 19
Figure 6: European mobile broadcast subscribers, 2012 20
Figure 7: United States mobile broadcast TV subscribers, 2006 - 2012 21
Figure 8: Major Asia-Pac market comparison for mobile broadcast TV subscribers , 2006 - 2012 22
Figure 9: Simplified value chain of players in the mobile broadcast TV sector 24
Figure 10: 2006 02 & Arqiva Oxford Trial Results: Average service use by time of day 27
Figure 11: 2006 02 & Arqiva Oxford Trial Results: Average service use by location 28
Figure 12: Conservative forecast for mobile broadcast TV revenue, 2006 - 2012 31
Figure 13: Broadcast led mobile broadcast TV business model 32
Figure 14: Mobile network operator led mobile broadcast TV business model 33
Figure 15: Wholesale mobile broadcast TV led business model 34
Figure 16: Simplified downstream mobile broadcast TV infrastructure value chain 38
Figure 17: Overview of major mobile broadcast bearer technologies 41
Figure 18: Qualcomm's FLO network components 43
Figure 19: Time slicing through a DVB-H system 45
Figure 20: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in North America, 2006 - 2012 50
Figure21: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the USA, 2006 - 2012 51
Figure22: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Canada, 2006 - 2012 52
Figure 23: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Europe, 2006 - 2012 53
Figure 24: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Benelux, 2006 - 2012 54
Figure 25: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in France, 2006 - 2012 55
Figure 26: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Germany, 2006 - 2012 56
Figure 27: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Spain, 2006 - 2012 57
Figure 28: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the UK, 2006 - 2012 58
Figure 29: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the Nordics, 2006 - 2012 59
Figure 30: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Italy, 2006 - 2012 60
Figure 31: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in the New EU 10 61
Figure 32: Mobile Broadcast TV subscribers in RoE, 2006 - 2012 62
Figure 33: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in RoWE, 2006 - 2012 63
Figure 34: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Asia-Pac, 2006 - 2012 64
Figure 35: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in China, 2006 - 2012 65
Figure 36: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Japan, 2006 - 2012 66
Figure 37: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Malaysia, 2006 - 2012 67
Figure 38: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Singapore, 2006 - 2012 68
Figure 39: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Hong Kong, 2006 - 2012 69
Figure 40: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in India, 2006 - 2012 70
Figure 41: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in South Korea, 2006 - 2012 71
Figure 42: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in New Zealand, 2006 - 2012 72
Figure 43: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Australia, 2006 - 2012 73
Figure 44: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in North America, 2006 - 2012 75
Figure45: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the USA, 2006 - 2012 76
Figure46: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Canada, 2006 - 2012 77
Figure 47: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Europe, 2006 - 2012 78
Figure 48: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Benelux, 2006 - 2012 79
Figure 49: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in France, 2006 - 2012 80
Figure 50: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Germany, 2006 - 2012 81
Figure 51: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Spain, 2006 - 2012 82
Figure 52: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the UK, 2006 - 2012 83
Figure 53: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the Nordics, 2006 - 2012 84
Figure 54: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Italy, 2006 - 2012 85
Figure 55: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in the New EU 10 86
Figure 56: Mobile Broadcast TV subscription revenue in RoE, 2006 - 2012 87
Figure 57: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in RoWE, 2006 - 2012 88
Figure 58: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue Asia-Pac, 2006 - 2012 89
Figure 59: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in China, 2006 - 2012 90
Figure 60: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Japan, 2006 - 2012 91
Figure 61: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Malaysia, 2006 - 2012 92
Figure 62: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue Singapore, 2006 - 2012 93
Figure 63: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in Hong Kong, 2006 - 2012 94
Figure 64: Mobile broadcast TV subscription revenue in India, 2006 - 2012 95