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Global demand to rise 3% annually through 2014
Worldwide demand for fertilizers (at the product level) is projected to increase nearly three percent per year to 380 million metric tons in 2014. These gains will reflect an upswing from sluggish growth registered during the 2004 to 2009 period, as pricing moderates from the historical highs posted during 2008 and 2009. A growing global population, increased consumption of high-protein products that require fertilizer-intensive grains, greater crop requirements for biofuel production, and shrinking arable land will require farmers to improve crop yields, providing opportunities for fertilizers. Rising incomes and the development of a middle class in industrializing nations will also create demand for fertilizers as golf industries expand and more individuals have the monetary resources to purchase products designed to enhance lawns and gardens. A more balanced nutrient approach to improving soil fertility will provide opportunities for multi-nutrient and organic fertilizer products.
Phospate, potash among best ag market performers
Agriculture continues to dominate the fertilizer market to the point where overall fertilizer market growth tends to mirror that of the agricultural market. Record-high raw material costs pushed fertilizer prices upward during 2008 and 2009. High input costs, in addition to volatile crop prices and a global recession, led farmers to keep operating costs in check, partially by reducing or postponing fertilizer applications during those years. Demand for fertilizerintensive crops and pricing moderation will benefit fertilizer use, particularly for phosphate and potash types. Multinutrient and organic fertilizers will also benefit as farmers shift toward more balanced nutrient delivery systems. In addition, growth in organic food production will provide opportunities for organic fertilizers.
Housing rebound to boost commercial, consumer uses
The smaller commercial and consumer fertilizer markets are dominated by developed countries, particularly the bedrock US market. These markets were severely impacted by the US housing crisis over the past few years. A turnaround in the US housing market, as well as continued consumer enthusiasm for lawn and garden care and a renewed interest in food gardening, will drive gains. Growth at the global level will also benefit from rising incomes and standards of living in developing nations as a greater emphasis is placed on beautifying homes by establishing and maintaining lawns and gardens. Despite favorable growth, the commercial and consumer fertilizer markets combined will continue to account for less than five percent of the global market.
Central & South America to be fastest growing regional market
Among the regional markets, Central and South America is projected to offer the best growth opportunities through 2014. Brazil has become one of the world’s great agricultural powers, and other countries in the region have similarly boosted their agricultural output by increasing their use of fertilizers. The Africa/Mideast region is also expected to post above average growth, but will remain the smallest regional market.
Details on these and other key findings are contained in a new industry study, it presents historical demand data (1999, 2004, 2009) plus forecasts for 2014 and 2019 by product, market, world region and for 32 countries. The study also considers key market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles global industry competitors, including Agrium, Bunge, CF Industries, K+S, Potash and Yara International.
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