Gastric Cancer Drug Discoveries: what the future holds

  • March 2011
  • -
  • Espicom Business Intelligence

Original analysis of the clinical potential and commercial prospects for companies, launched products and pipeline candidates put into current market context

Original analysis of the clinical potential and commercial prospects for companies, launched products and pipeline candidates put into current market context.

The market is set for rapid and significant growth
There is room for considerable change in the gastric cancer market as improved therapies seek to improve patient outcomes for advanced disease. Over the next seven years, Espicom expects to see the market grow by 133% from US$846 million in 2010, to US$1.97 billion in 2017, with the targeted therapies accounting for most of this growth. While competition amongst these targeted therapies will intensify from 2013/4, Roche will continue to dominate this market with Herceptin, which was recently approved in Japan.

Next generation chemotherapy
While targeted therapies are expected to grow rapidly, it is chemotherapy agents which are leading the current market. One notable success of recent years is Roche’s Xeloda, which is replacing 5-FU in the US and EU, where it has been approved as a first-line treatment in gastric cancer since March 2007. With US patents in force until 2013, Xeloda is the only branded chemotherapeutic for gastric cancer not facing generic competition at present.

The rise of targeted therapies
Espicom believes that by 2017, targeted therapies will account for over 60% of the gastric cancer market. Competition for Herceptin will initially come from GSK’s Tykerb/Tyverb, but Roche’s Avastin, Merck’s Erbitux and Lilly’s ramucirumab are just some of those waiting in the wings over the coming period. One of the most promising candidates is Bayer’s Nexavar where very promising PII trial results have given optimism for its prospects.

More Information...

Critical Business Insights from this report which...

Provides independent, reliable 7-year forecasts, market share and unique product scoring which give you real insights to the current and future business landscape
Evaluates the competitive environment – assess winners and losers and know their pipeline content and status
Covers major launched products and significant pipeline candidates
Identifies promising mid-stage development candidates
Forecasts the launch timeframe for new products or indications
Summarises current clinical thinking on gastric cancer

Table Of Contents


Contents

List of Charts.v
Executive Summary.1
Market Analysis.2
Current Market.2
Next-Generation Chemotherapy.2
Targeted Therapy3
Future Market.4
Sales Forecasts.7
Competitive Analysis8
Competitor Ratio Analysis10
Rese arch and De velopment12
VEGF Pathway Inhibitors 13
EGFr Inhibitors. 13
Other Targeted Therapies of Interest 14
Chemotherapy. 15
Background Information16
What is Gastric Cancer?.16
The Stages of Gastric Cancer .16
Survival Rates.17
Risk Factors for Gastric Cancer.17
Preventing Gastric Cancer18
Current Treatments.18
Surgery.18
Chemotherapy.18
Radiation Therapy.19
Why are New Treatments Needed?19
Patient Statistics.19
Gastric Cancer Products.20
Targeted Therapies .22
Approved Products.22
Herceptin22
Phase III Products.31
Afinitor31
Avastin.38
Erbitux.53
Ramucirumab62
Tykerb/Tyverb66
Phase II Products74
AMG 10274
AMG 38676
ARQ 197.79
AUY92283
GDC-044986
Nexavar.89
Nimotuzumab95
Olaparib102
Telatinib105
Tremelimumab107
Gastric Cancer Drug Discoveries
TSU-68 109
Vectibix111
Phase I Products.118
Axitinib118
BMS-833923.118
Brivanib.118
CUDC-101118
Recentin .118
Vandetanib.118
Chemotherapy119
Approved Products.119
Taxotere119
Teysuno.132
Xeloda. 136
Phase II Products. 145
Alimta. 145
Ixempra 150
Tesetaxel 154
Appendix.157
Phase Transition Probability. 157
Source Material. 158

List of Tables

The Potential Launch Landscape for Gastric Cancer.4
Gastric Cancer Sales Forecasts (2010-2017).7
Competitor Ratio Analysis Scores.10
Drugs in Clinical Development for Gastric Cancer 12
TNM Stage Grouping16
Five-year Gastric Cancer Survival Rates (US) 17
Targeted Therapies for Gastric Cancer20
Chemotherapy for Gastric Cancer.21
Herceptin Sales by Company (2009-2017).30
Herceptin Sales by Indication (2009-2017).30
Afinitor Sales by Indication (2009-2017).37
Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)50
Avastin Sales by Indication (2009-2017).50
Erbitux Sales by Company (2009-2017)60
Erbitux Sales by Indication (2009-2017)61
Ramucirumab Sales by Indication (2014-2017)65
Tykerb/Tyverb Sales by Indication (2009-2017).72
Studies in Metastatic CRC with EGFr-Targeting Monoclonal Antibodies in Irinotecan-Refractory Patients98
Safety Profiles of Leading Anti-EGFr Products and Nimotuzumab99
Efficacy of Docetaxel in the Treatment of NSCLC Patients Previously Treated with a Platinum-Based CT Regimen (Intent-to-Treat Analysis)
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2009-2017)130
S-1 Sales (2009-2017) 135
Xeloda Sales by Company (2009-2017). 143
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2009-2017). 143
Probability of Launch. 157

List of Charts

Gastric Cancer Sales by Therapy (2010)2
Market Share by Product (2010)4
Market Share of Gastric Cancer Therapies (2010)5
Market Share of Gastric Cancer Therapies (2017).5
Market Share by Product (2017)6
Major Players in Gastric Cancer by Market Share (2010).8
Major Players in Gastric Cancer by Market Share (2017).9
Competitor Ratio Analysis Scores. 11
HER2 Signalling Pathway22
Herceptin Sales (2009-2017)30
Afinitor Mode of Action 31
Afinitor Sales (2009-2017).37
Avastin Mode of Action38
Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)49
Avastin Sales by Indication, 2010.52
Avastin Sales by Indication, 2017.52
Erbitux Sales (2009-2017)60
Ramucirumab Sales (2014-2017)65
Tykerb/Tyverb Total Sales (2009-2017)72
Tykerb Sales by Indication, 201773
AUY922 Mode of Action Within a Cancer Cell.83
Nexavar’s Dual Mode of Action89
Schematic of EGFr Inhibition in Tumourigenesis.111
TAX 317 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Best Supportive Care 123
TAX 320 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Vinorelbine or Ifosfamide Control. 124
Taxotere Sales (2009-2017) 129
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2010).130
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2017) 131
S-1 Sales (2009-2017). 134
Xeloda Sales (2009-2017) 142
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2010) 143
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2017)144

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