Drug and Medication Industry: Forecast Insight: Antibacterials

• Publication date: February 2011

About This Report Over the next decade, the fragmented antibacterials industry will shift away from a blockbuster-business model, as generic erosion of industry leaders and increased competition between new hospital drugs will trigger a decline in revenues of branded antibacterials. While there is a lack of innovation with regards to new community drugs, the hospital segment will remain the only notable source of growth. ...

About This Report

Over the next decade, the fragmented antibacterials industry will shift away from a blockbuster-business model, as generic erosion of industry leaders and increased competition between new hospital drugs will trigger a decline in revenues of branded antibacterials. While there is a lack of innovation with regards to new community drugs, the hospital segment will remain the only notable source of growth.

What's Included in This Report?


* Analysis of the antibacterials industry across the US, Japan, France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the UK.

* Detailed ten-year revenue projections for industry ed antibacterial drugs in each of the seven major industries.

* Thorough assessments of key industry ed antibacterial brands.

* Snapshot of industry dynamics in the Rest of World.

Key Market Facts

In 2009, antibacterial sales in the seven major industry s totalled USD 19.6bn, declining at a growth rate (CAGR) of -1.6% since 2005. This decline was largely caused by generic erosion of industry -leading community brands, such as Zithromax and Klacid, combined with a paucity of product pipelne .
Over the next decade, genericization of key brands will drive a significant decline in industry value, contributing to a loss of sales from Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic, Zosyn/Tazocin, and Zyvox alone of USD 3.2bn by 2019. Combined with growing resistance, this will cause increasing industry fragmentation and reduce the potential for “blockbuster” sales.
The late-stage pipeline, much of which is targeting MRSA, will generate sales totaling nearly USD 2.0bn by 2019. However, Datamonitor predicts that this upside will be insufficient to offset the decline caused by genericization, and total seven major industry sales will fall from USD 19.6bn in 2009 to USD 16.4bn in 2019, with a CAGR of -1.8%.

Why Should You Buy This Report?


* Assess and quantify the industry opportunity for antibacterials, from generic drugs to high-priced hospital brands.

* Get in-depth overview of the changing trends of antibacterial drugs and success factors for leading brands.

* Assess the impact of key issues affecting the antibacterials industry ; generic erosion and growing levels of resistance.

Global Drug And Medication Industry

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
About Datamonitor healthcare 2
About the Infectious Disease pharmaceutical analysis team 2

Summary 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the antibacterials industry 3
Related reports 4
Upcoming related reports 4
CHAPTER 1 MARKET Definition and Overview 10
Market definition for this report 10
Countries and regions included in this report 10
Seven major industry assessment 10
Class analysis 19
Brand analysis 21
Comparison with previous projection 27
Rest of the World snapshot 30
CHAPTER 2 Brand Dynamics 34
Overview of competitive landscape 34
Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic (levofloxacin; Johnson & Johnson/Daiichi Sankyo/Sanofi-Aventis) 40
Zosyn/Tazocin (piperacillin/tazobactam; Pfizer/Taisho Pharmaceutical) 43
Zyvox (linezolid; Pfizer) 45
Cubicin (daptomycin; Cubist Pharmaceuticals/Novartis/Merck & Co.) 49
Merrem/Meropen (meropenem; AstraZeneca/Dainippon Sumitomo) 53
Avelox/Octegra (moxifloxacin; Bayer/Merck & Co.) 56
Tygacil (tigecycline; Pfizer) 59
Vibativ (telavancin; Theravance/Astellas Pharma) 63
Zienam/Primaxin (imipenem/cilastatin; Merck & Co.) 66
Doribax/Finibax (doripenem; Johnson & Johnson/Shionogi & Co.) 69
Invanz (ertapenem; Merck & Co.) 72
Bibliography 76
Journal papers 76
Websites 77
Datamonitor reports 78
Appendix A – Industry Assumptions 79
New product launches 79
Patent expiries 79
Data definitions, limitations and hypothesis s 80
Forecast methodology 81
Appendix B 82
Contributing experts 82
Conferences attended 82
Report methodology 82
About Datamonitor 82
Disclaimer 85


TABLE OF FIGURES
Chart 1: Antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major industries, by type of product (marketed versus pipeline), 2005–19 12
Chart 2: Antibacterial sales ($m) and CAGR (%) in the seven major industries, by region, 2005–19 15
Chart 3: Antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major industries, by country, 2005–19 16
Chart 4: Antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major industries, by drug class, 2005–19 21
Chart 5: Sales of key antibacterial brands/molecules in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009 and 2019 23
Chart 6: Comparison of fluoroquinolone class projections in the seven major industries, 2005–19 28
Chart 7: Comparison of antibacterial industry projections in the seven major industries, 2005–19 29
Chart 8: Rest of the World versus seven major industry sales split for the antibacterials industry, 2009 31
Chart 9: Indexed annual sales of the antibacterials industry in small and emerging industries, 2005–09 32
Chart 10: 2009 and updated sales projection for Levaquin, Cravit, and Tavanic in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 43
Chart 11: 2009 and updated sales projection for Zosyn and Tazocin in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 45
Chart 12: 2009 and updated sales projection for Zyvox in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 49
Chart 13: 2009 and updated sales projection for Cubicin in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 53
Chart 14: 2009 and updated sales projection for Merrem and Meropen in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 56
Chart 15: 2009 and updated sales projection for Avelox and Octegra in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 59
Chart 16: 2009 and updated sales projection for Tygacil in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 63
Chart 17: 2009 and updated sales projection for Vibativ in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 66
Chart 18: 2009 and updated sales projection for Zienam/Primaxin in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 69
Chart 19: 2009 and updated sales projection for Doribax and Finibax in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 72
Chart 20: 2009 and updated sales projection for & Co.’s Invanz in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 75
Chart 21: Methodology for projecting price to remove impact of currency fluctuations on future trend figure 81


TABLE OF TABLES
Data table 1: Key events impacting the antibacterials industry, 2005–19 13
Data table 2: Sales projections for antibacterials in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 24
Data table 3: Comparison of leading branded antibacterial drug sales in the seven major industry s and RoW ($m), 2009 33
Data table 4: Leading branded antibacterial drug sales in the seven major industry s ($m), 2009–19 35
Data table 5: Selected antibacterial compounds in the late-stage Research and Development pipeline, 2011 40
Data table 6: Key factors impacting sales of Levaquin, Cravit, and Tavanic, 2010–19 42
Data table 7: Key factors impacting sales of Zosyn and Tazocin, 2010–19 45
Data table 8: Key factors impacting sales of Zyvox, 2010–19 48
Data table 9: Key factors impacting sales of Cubicin, 2010–19 51
Data table 10: Key factors impacting sales of Merrem and Meropen, 2010–19 54
Data table 11: Key factors impacting sales of Avelox and Octegra, 2010–19 57
Data table 12: Key factors impacting sales of Tygacil, 2010–19 61
Data table 13: Key factors impacting sales of Vibativ, 2010–19 64
Data table 14: Key factors impacting sales of Zienam/Primaxin, 2010–19 67
Data table 15: Key factors impacting sales of Doribax/Finibax, 2010–19 70
Data table 16: Key factors impacting sales of Invanz, 2010–19 73
Data table 17: Datamonitor’s estimated launch dates for antibacterial drugs in the seven major industries, 2010–19 78
Data table 18: Patent expiry dates for antibacterial drugs in the seven major industries, 2010–19 79