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Peru Mining Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Peru's mining industry will experience solid growth in both value and production, supported bycompetitive operating costs, a stable business environment and a significant project pipeline over ourforecast period to 2020.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

- Peru's extractive industry will experience significant growth over our forecast period to 2020. We expectthe sector's value to climb from USD19.7bn in 2016 to USD24.1bn by 2020, averaging 4.1% annualgrowth. In particular, we expect copper and gold to outperform in terms of production growth due tostrong project pipelines and continued investment. Silver and lead will also benefit from a number of keyprojects, while tin and zinc output posts slower growth. The country will remain a top global producer ofeach of these metals.

- Copper projects account for the largest proportion of new mine projects and expansions. The Peruviangovernment estimates that the country's 2016 mining investments will total USD6.5bn. The sector isdominated by global copper mining majors including Southern Copper (a division of Grupo México),Freeport McMoRan and Glencore Xstrata, which are boosting output by both expanding existingoperations and undertaking new investment projects. Increasing Chinese investment and mining activitywill stem from MMG and Chinalco.

- Ongoing metal price weakness, anti-mining protests, and illegal mining will remain key challenges toPeru's mining industry. While these factors may result in project delays, Peru's low operating costs,supportive political environment and significant project pipeline will offset any production declines.

- Peru's mining sector will be supported by the country's vast mineral reserves, open investmentframework, and low operating costs. Peru will remain competitive relative to other Americas miningjurisdictions and we expect mining firms will continue to invest in the country. While the country'soverall tax levels are relatively higher than its regional peers, miners in Chile still face elevated labour,electricity and water costs compared to Peru.

Table Of Contents

Peru Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Peru Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Copper: Strong Growth To Provide Economic Tailwinds 9
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 9
Structural Trends 9
Table: Peru - Major Copper Projects 13
Gold: Steady Climb Ahead 14
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 14
Structural Trends 14
Hochschild and Buenaventura To Dominate Sector 15
Protests To Continue Against The Sector 17
Lead: Modest Gains After Strong 2015 18
Table: Lead Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 18
Structural Trends 18
Silver: Production To Remain Solid 20
Table: Silver Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 20
Structural Trends 20
Risks Slated To Downside 21
Table: Peru - Key Silver Projects 22
Tin: Minsur Cost Cutting To Limit Growth 23
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 23
Minsur To Scale Back Investment 24
Zinc: Declining Ore Grades To Weigh On Growth 26
Latest Developments 26
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 26
Table: Peru - Key Zinc Projects 27
Structural Trends 27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 30
Peru Risk/Reward Index 30
Rewards 30
Industry Rewards 30
Country Rewards 30
Risks 30
Industry Risks 30
Country Risks 31
Americas - Risk/Reward Divergence To Emerge 31
Key Takeaways 31
Latest Revisions 32
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index 33
Regulatory Development 34
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 34
Commodities Forecast 38
Commodities Outlook 38
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 38
Competitive Landscape 39
Table: Peru - Largest Listed Mining Firms Financial Data 40
Company Profile 41
Buenaventura 41
Latest Results 43
Table: Buenaventura - Key Financial Data 44
Global Company Strategy - Grupo Mexico - Q2 2016 45
Table: Grupo Mexico - Key Financial Data 48
First Quantum - Q2 2016 50
Latest Results 53
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data 54
Regional Overview 56
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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