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United Kingdom Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have incorporated plans to phase out the UK's remaining coal-fired power capacity by 2025into our forecasts - based on our view that Amber Rudd's announcement will simply accelerate a trend thatis already in play. The biggest challenge will be mobilising investment into replacement capacity amiddelays to the UK's flagship nuclear project - something that could require reform of the country's existingcapacity mechanism so as to incentivise gas.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

- We have decided to factor the UK's plans to close all of its coal-fired capacity by 2025 into our 10-yearforecasts. There are a number of factors that underpin this forecast - not least that coal plants in the UKare already being closed down due to tightening EU emissions directives, as well as the UK's carbonprice floor and plunging gas prices amid global oversupply.

- Engie, for example, announced in February 2016 that it would close its 1 gigawatt (GW) Rudgely powerplant in Staffordshire earlier than expected: in the summer of 2016. Utility SSE similarly announced theclosure of it 2GW Fiddler's Ferry power plant in the same week. The closures are a result of decliningprofitability as wholesale power prices fall on the back of lower commodity prices, and a rise in carboncosts.

- In January 2016, the UK's Institution of Mechanical Engineers released a report stating that the UK willface an unprecedented 'energy gap' within the next 10 years. The institute claims that, without plans tostimulate investment in a fleet of new gas plants, policies to stop unabated coal-fired generation and thephasing out of nuclear reactors will combine to create a supply crunch.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (United Kingdom 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
United Kingdom Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
United Kingdom Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: UK - Coal Capacity 16
Table: UK Planned Nuclear Projects 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 28
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 29
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 30
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 31
Electricity Consumption 32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 33
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 33
Table: Planned Interconnections Will Boost Power Supply 35
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 35
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 37
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index 37
United Kingdom Power Risk/Reward Index 43
Rewards 43
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Key Policies And Market Structure 45
Regulation And Competition 45
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill 47
Sustainable Energy Policies 48
Pricing 49
United Kingdom Power Projects Database 51
Competitive Landscape 54
EDF Energy 54
The National Grid Company 54
EON 55
RWE npower 55
SSE 55
Scottish Power 56
Centrica 56
Company Profile 58
EDF 58
Regional Overview 65
NAWE Power Regional Overview 65
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Methodology 73
Methodology And Sources 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sources 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

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