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Russia Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: International sanctions that are weakening the economy, coupled with low oil prices, underlineour bearish outlook over the Russian construction sector. We currently forecast Russia's constructionindustry to contract by 1.8% in real terms in 2016 - a mild improvement compared to the deep 6.7%contraction of 2015 - as a result of low base effects and the adjustment of the economy to the new oil priceenvironment.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Russia's actions in Ukraine have resulted in international sanctions, some of which target loans from theEuropean Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB).

These sanctions will continue to have a significant impact on the Russian government's capacity to fundinfrastructure projects.

- Middle Eastern and Chinese construction companies will increase their market share in Russia'scompetitive landscape as a result of Western sanctions imposed after the country's actions surroundingthe Ukraine crisis. Shifting the balance away from European firms will diversify Russia's options forfunding and project delivery.

- Our Country Risk team maintains a bearish outlook over the Russian economy and forecasts a continuedrecession of -1.2% GDP real growth in 2016 before returning to weak growth from 2017 onwards.Russia's annexation of Crimea and perceived belligerence towards Ukraine, in addition to falling oilprices, have triggered significant rouble volatility and massive private net capital outflows. The flight ofcapital, which could have otherwise been deployed to productive investment domestically, has worsenedthe investment outlook.

- We maintain our view that political risk will continue to curtail construction industry growth ascorruption is endemic and public policy remains opaque, convoluted and subject to frequent change.

Table Of Contents

Russia Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Russia 2015-2025) 8
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Russia) 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Bleak Infrastructure Outlook To Continue In 2016 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2015-2025) 11
Structural Trends 12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 18
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2015-2025) 19
Structural Trends 19
Harsh Investor Climate 24
Table: Key Projects: Transport 27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 28
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2015-2025) 28
Structural Trends 29
Table: Key Projects: Energy and Utilities 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview 36
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2015-2025) 36
Structural Trends 36
Government Policies To Support Housing Market 42
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects 44
Table: Key Projects: Construction and Social Infrastructure 44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 45
Russia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 45
Rewards 45
Risks 45
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors 47
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 52
Market Overview 53
Competitive Landscape 53
Table: Competitive Landscape 53
Company Profile 55
Mostootryad No19 55
Methodology 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sector-Specific Methodology 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology 63
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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