Japan's mobile market - Softbank calls the tune

In January 2006 we published our views on the impact of new competition in Japan’s mobile market – the first such competition for twelve years. Then we rated Softbank as the principal disruptive force, with Vodafone the hardest hit. In the event, Softbank bought Vodafone KK in March 2006, immediately acquiring a subscriber base of 15 million. Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son announced a ‘price war’ on the eve of the introduction of mobile number portability in October, but IT problems and confusion around Softbank Mobile tariffs saw KDDI taking the early gains. The first half of 2007 will see the launch of eMobile (HSDPA) and IPMobile (TD-CDMA), while WiMAX operator YOZAN continues to struggle with its strategy to overcome initial setbacks. In the near term, we believe that the impact of new mobile entrants in 2007–2008 will be minimal compared to the disruption caused by Softbank Mobile, as it attempts to build market share and leverage its content assets. Longer term, we believe eMobile will struggle to gain share and thus may resort to a VoIP over mobile strategy.

Table of contents

Market development scenario: 2007–2010
Strategy summary
Figure 2 YOZAN service and technology strategy
Source: company data, Ovum
Technology roadmaps
High-speed packet access
LTE and ‘Super 3G’
CDMA migration options
WiMAX in Japan
TD-CDMA
PHS
Infrastructure and coverage
Pricing strategy
Conclusions

Table of figures

Figure 1 New mobile entrants: key statistics
Figure 2 YOZAN service and technology strategy
Figure 3 Technology migration plans: all operators
Figure 4 Relative monthly ARPU by country
Figure 5 Key components of Softbank’s Gold Plan and White Plan
Figure 6 Japanese wireless data plans