Mobile VoIP: impacts on mobile operators

Mobile VoIP: impacts on mobile operators

This report analyses how mobile operators may be impacted by the development of VoIP over cellular networks, in the medium and long term. It focuses on the issue of cannibalisation of mobile operators’ voice revenues and the defensive measures that mobile operators could implement.

In our view, cellular VoIP is the flavour of mobile VoIP that has the highest potential impact for mobile operators, although the first significant impacts are not expected until the long term, typically after 2009. VoIP that bypasses cellular using WiFi access and dual-mode devices has more short-term implications for the mobile industry, but it represents in our view less of a threat for the mobile operators. We cover the issues of voice over WiFi as part of our research on fixed–mobile convergence.

Table of contents

Key messages

Figure 1 Three types of mobile VoIP

Cellular VoIP service scenarios

The default cellular voice service is based on VoIP
A soft VoIP client is installed on the phone
Figure 2 Examples of cellular VoIP clients
VoIP in combination with specific mobile IP applications

SWOT analysis of VoIP over cellular for mobile operators

Mobile operators’ strategies for cellular VoIP

Mobile operators’ positioning
Figure 3 Mobile operator strategies for mobile VoIP
Defensive measures against cellular VoIP
Operators’ case studies

Assessing the long-term impacts on a European mobile operator’s voice revenues

Methodology
Market development scenario (2005–2015)
Figure 4 Roadmap for cellular VoIP
Figure 5 Networks
Figure 6 Devices
Figure 7 Competitors
Figure 8 Services and tariffs
Figure 9 Adoption by end users
Impact on voice revenues for 2005–2015
Figure 10 Adoption of cellular VoIP services and potential impact on voice revenues
Figure 11 Evolution of operator’s voice revenues