Green Energy in Asia: Renewable investment, capacity growth and future outlook

Green Energy in Asia: Renewable investment, capacity growth and future outlook

Some key findings from this report...
• Electricity generation in Asia remains dominated by coal. Both China and Australia derive over 75.0% of their electricity from coal whilst over 50.0% of electricity is generated from coal in India.
• Electricity generation in non-OECD Asian countries will nearly triple in volume by 2030, rising to 10,185bn kWh from 3,517bn kWh in 2004 according to the EIA. Most of this additional power generation is expected to be coal-fired.
• Renewable energy source usage is significantly higher in Asia than in the US where renewables comprise just 11.5%. Renewables account for 32.0% of India’s total electricity generation capacity. In China and Japan they represent 21.0% and 20.0% respectively.
• Asia holds the lead the world in hydroelectric power. Installed capacity of SHP in Asia account for more than 70.0% of the world SHP installed capacity..

Green Energy in Asia
Renewable investment, capacity growth and future outlook
The EIA forecasts that robust economic growth and improved standards of living will underpin a massive surge in power consumption in Asia.
China and India account for the world’s largest projected increases in national electric power demand over 2004-2030. Most of this is likely to be fossil fuel based resulting in a surge in GHG emissions. In parallel, growing global concern about climate change will lead to international pressure on high polluting countries like India and China to curb their emissions. Cap and trade systems, once adopted by the US and Australia, will make the case of renewables more attractive in Asia.
Green Energy in Asia: Renewable investment, capacity growth and future outlook is a new management report published by Business Insights that analyses the current trends driving the use of renewable energy in Asia. This report compares the progress of each renewable energy technology in Asia with the rest of the world, identifies the key players and analyzes the potential and outlook for each technology.
Assess the future prospects and investment potential for renewable technologies in Asia with this new report.

This new report will enable you to...
• Benchmark the growth potential for each of the leading renewable energy technologies in Asia using this report’s independent comparative assessment of the five leading technologies.
• Understand the drivers and resistors of the key renewable technologies in Asia with the help of this report’s overview of the factors affecting technologies’ growth including key market trends and the initiatives taken by Asian countries to promote renewable energy.
• Assess the landscape for renewable energy in Asia with this report’s detailed analysis of the market structure including capacity and generation, global comparison, economic conditions and key players.
• Identify the resources, strategies and competitive threat posed by leading players in Asian renewable energy using the key competitor analysis contained in this report

Table of Contents
Green Energy in Asia
Executive summary xii
Market development xii
Australia xiii
China xiv
India xv
Japan xvi
Other Asian countries xvii
Future outlook xvii
Abbreviations xix
Chapter 1 Market development 22
Summary 22
Overview of the electricity sector in Asia 23
Installed capacity 23
Overview of renewable energy in Asia 24
Wind power 25
Solar power 26
Biopower 27
Hydropower 28
Geothermal power 30
Chapter 2 Australia 32
Summary 32
Introduction 33
Overview of power generation in Australia 34
Demand and supply situation and outlook 35
Overview of renewable energy in Australia 36
The Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET) 38
Other initiatives 38
State government initiatives 39
Wind power 39
Overview 39
Key players 42
Drivers of wind power 42
Resistors of wind power 43
Solar power 44
Overview 44
Key players 45
Drivers of solar power 45
Resistors of solar Power 47
Biopower 47
Overview 47
Drivers of biopower 48
Resistors of biopower 48
Hydropower 49
Overview 49
Key players 51
Drivers of hydropower 51
Resistors of hydropower 51
Geothermal power 52
Overview 52
Key players 54
Drivers of geothermal power 55
Resistors of geothermal power 55
Conclusions 56
Chapter 3 China 58
Summary 58
Introduction 59
Overview of power generation in China 60
Demand and supply situation and outlook 61
Overview of renewable energy in China 62
Renewable Energy Law 64
Wind power 65
Overview 65
Key players 68
Drivers of wind power 68
Resistors of wind power 69
Solar power 69
Overview 69
Key players 71
Drivers of solar power 72
Resistors of solar power 72
Biopower 73
Overview 73
Key players 74
Drivers of biopower 74
Resistors of biopower 74
Small-hydro power 74
Overview 74
Key players 76
Drivers of small-hydro power 76
Resistors of small-hydro power 77
Large-hydro power 78
Overview 78
Key players 79
Drivers of large-hydro power 79
Resistors of large-hydro power 80
Geothermal power 80
Overview 80
Conclusions 81
Chapter 4 India 84
Summary 84
Introduction 85
Overview of power generation in India 86
Demand and supply situation and outlook 87
Overview of renewable energy in India 90
Government initiatives 91
Wind power 92
Overview 92
Key players 94
Drivers of wind power 95
Resistors of wind power 96
Solar power 97
Overview 97
Key players 99
Drivers of solar power 99
Resistors of solar power 100
Biopower 101
Overview 101
Key players 102
Drivers of biopower 102
Large-hydro power 103
Overview 103
Key players 104
Drivers of large-hydro power 104
Resistors of large-hydro power 105
Small-hydro power 106
Overview 106
Key players 107
Drivers of small-hydro power 107
Resistors of small-hydro power 108
Geothermal power 108
Overview 108
Key players 110
Drivers of geothermal power 110
Resistors of geothermal power 110
Conclusions 110
Chapter 5 Japan 114
Summary 114
Introduction 115
Overview of power generation in Japan 115
Demand and supply situation and outlook 118
Overview of renewable energy in Japan 119
The Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) 121
Wind power 122
Overview 122
Key players 124
Drivers of wind power 125
Resistors of wind power 125
Solar power 126
Overview 126
Key players 127
Drivers of solar power 128
Resistors of solar energy 129
Hydropower 130
Overview 130
Key players 131
Drivers of hydropower 131
Resistors of hydropower 131
Biopower 132
Overview 132
Key players 133
Drivers of biopower 133
Resistors of biopower 133
Geothermal power 134
Overview 134
Key players 137
Drivers of geothermal power 137
Resistors of geothermal power 137
Conclusions 138
Chapter 6 Other Asian countries 140
Summary 140
Indonesia 141
Introduction 141
Wind power 142
Solar power 142
Biopower 143
Hydropower 143
Geothermal power 143
Philippines 144
Introduction 144
Wind power 145
Solar power 146
Biopower 146
Hydropower 146
Geothermal power 146
South Korea 147
Introduction 147
Wind power 148
Solar power 149
Biopower 149
Hydropower 150
Geothermal power 150
Thailand 150
Introduction 150
Wind power 151
Solar power 151
Hydropower 151
Geothermal power 151
Chapter 7 Future outlook 154
Summary 154
The outlook for power generation in Asia 155
OECD Asia 155
Non OECD Asia 156
CO2 emissions 159
Renewable energy outlook 160
Wind power 160
Solar power 160
Biopower 161
Hydropower 161
Geothermal power 162
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Net electricity generation capacity by source, 2005 24
Figure 1.2: Wind power, installed capacity, 2006 26
Figure 1.3: Solar power, installed capacity, 2005 27
Figure 1.4: Biopower, installed capacity, 2005 28
Figure 1.5: Hydropower, installed capacity, 2005 29
Figure 1.6: Geothermal, installed capacity, 2005 30
Figure 2.7: Net electricity generation by source, 2005 34
Figure 2.8: Electricity generation in Australia, 2005 and ABARE projections 36
Figure 2.9: Share of renewables, electricity generation, 2005 37
Figure 2.10: Share of renewables, electricity generation, 1960-61 to 2001-02 37
Figure 2.11: Cumulative wind power capacity (MW), 2000-2006 40
Figure 2.12: Distribution of wind installed capacity in Australia 41
Figure 2.13: Cumulative solar power capacity in Australia (MWp), 1992-2005 45
Figure 2.14: Cumulative hydropower capacity (MW), 1996-2004 49
Figure 2.15: Hydropower installed capacity by state, 2005 50
Figure 2.16: Key players 51
Figure 2.17: Increasing expenditure and geothermal licenses and geothermal license applications in
Australia, 2000-2007 53
Figure 2.18: Potential geothermal sites in Australia 54
Figure 3.19: Net electricity generation capacity by source, 2006 60
Figure 3.20: Growth rate of power consumption and generation capacity in China, 1980-2005 61
Figure 3.21: Share of renewables by generation capacity in China, 2005 63
Figure 3.22: Cumulative wind power generation capacity (MW), 2000-2006 66
Figure 3.23: Distribution of wind resource in China 67
Figure 3.24: Key Players in China 68
Figure 3.25: PV annual installation and cumulative in China, 1976-2005 70
Figure 3.26: PV generation capacity by sector (MWp) in China, 2005 70
Figure 3.27: Cumulative SHP generation capacity, 1950-2005 75
Figure 4.28: Net electricity generation capacity by source in India, March 2007 86
Figure 4.29: Evolution of electricity generation by fuel in India, 1971-2004 87
Figure 4.30: Power supply, demand and shortage in India, 1997-2006 88
Figure 4.31: Electricity generation capacity in India, 2006-07 vs. 2011-12 89
Figure 4.32: Share of renewables, generation capacity in India, 2005 90
Figure 4.33: Cumulative wind power generation capacity in India (MW), 2000-2006 93
Figure 4.34: Wind resources in India 94
Figure 4.35: Key players in India 95
Figure 4.36: Cumulative large-hydro generation capacity (GW), 1960-2007 103
Figure 4.37: Potential geothermal provinces in India 109
Figure 5.38: The ten electric companies in Japan by service area 116
Figure 5.39: Net electricity generation in Japan by source, 2005 117
Figure 5.40: Composition of electric power production in Japan from the ten EPCs, EPDC, and
others (1000 GWh) 119
Figure 5.41: Share of renewables, electricity generation in Japan, 2005 120
Figure 5.42: Ten electric power companies purchasing volume of green power 121
Figure 5.43: Cumulative wind power generation capacity in Japan (MW), 2006 123
Figure 5.44: Key Players in Japan 124
Figure 5.45: Cumulative solar power generation capacity (MW), 2006 126
Figure 5.46: Key players in Japan 128
Figure 5.47: Cumulative geothermal power generation capacity in Japan (MW), 1966-2005 135
Figure 5.48: Locations of geothermal power plants in Japan 136
Figure 6.49: Share of renewables, generation capacity in Indonesia, 2005 142
Figure 6.50: Share of renewables, generation capacity in the Philippines, 2006 145
Figure 6.51: Share of renewables, generation capacity in South Korea, 2004 148
Figure 7.52: Net electricity generation in OECD Asia by fuel, 2004-2030 156
Figure 7.53: Annual growth of electricity generation by region, 2004-2030 157
Figure 7.54: Net electricity generation in non-OECD Asia by fuel, 2004-2030 158
Figure 7.55: World CO2 emission forecast by region, 2004-2030 159
List of Tables
Table 4.1: Forecast for grid-interactive renewable power (excluding large-hydro), 2007-2022 92
Table 4.2: Existing solar photovoltaic systems in India, 2006 98
Table 4.3: Potential geothermal provinces in India 108