Afghanistan National Security Markets – 2011-2016

  • January 2011
  • -
  • Homeland Security Research Corporation (HSRC)

2011-2016 Market: $13.7 Billion
To train and equip the Afghani security forces is the cornerstone of the US led coalition strategy, driven by political pressure to ensure the coalition withdrawal plans. It is also driven by economical rational: while the funding of a single US and NATO soldier in Afghanistan costs approximately $1 million per annum, the cost of an ANSF soldier or police officer is less than $50,000 per annum. The Afghan military-security infrastructure is in need of everything from troops training, weapons, trucks and aircraft, to military communication gear,
C-3I systems and counter-IED technologies. The success of this initiative will dictate the course of the conflict and the depth and duration of U.S.-led coalition involvement.
According to our new market report, the cumulative 2011-2016 Afghan national security market is forecasted to reach $13-14 billion.
Along with analyzing the institutions, agencies and procurement services being developed, the report’s 250 pages and 212 tables and figures describe the market by:
Procurement Agencies Policies and Procedures: e.g., US Army Corps of Engineers, CERP, Afghanistan Security Forces Fund, ANA, ANP, Afghan private sector
Technology Needs and Challenges: e.g., Afghan-related training methods and technologies, counter-IED technologies, simplified systems
Afghan End Customers: Afghan government, ANA, ANP, Air Force, intelligence community and private sector
The report covers 103 sub-markets, including:
Light Weapons: e.g., Rifles, Machine Guns, Mortars, Ammunition
Artillery: e.g., Howitzers, Artillery, C3I
Military Vehicles: e.g., Armored Humvees, Ambulances, MRAPs, Medium Tactical Vehicles, Semi-Trailers, Pick-up Trucks
Critical Infrastructure Security: e.g., Utilities ,Transportation, Airports
Military Communications: e.g., Manpack Radios, Vehicle-Mounted Transceivers, Satellite Communications, Secure Voice/Data Systems
Counter-IED Equipment: e.g., Radio and I.R. Jammers, Robots
Maintenance, Upgrade and Refurbishing Services
Perimeter Security: e.g., Construction, Sensors, C-3I Systems
Information Technologies and Biometrics
Military & Police Training
ANA & ANP Facilities Construction
Air Force: e.g., Rotary and Fixed-wing Aircraft, Ground Support Systems
Intelligence: e.g., C3I, SIGINT, ITThe report offers for each sub-market 2010 market size, as well as 2011-2016 forecast and analysis.

Table Of Contents

1 Executive Summary 16
1.1 Major Findings 16
1.2 Major Conclusions 24
1.3 Afghan National Security Organization 29
1.4 ANSF and Private Sector Security Market - 2011-2016 30
2 Scope, Methodology and Assumptions 35
2.1 Scope 35
2.2 Methodology 35
2.3 Terms of Reference 37
2.4 Scenario Assumptions 38
3 Market Analysis 39
3.1 Market Drivers 39
3.2 Market Inhibitors 40
3.3 Business Opportunities and Challenges 41
3.4 Market SWOT Analysis 42
3.5 Market Competitive Analysis 43
3.6 Market Dynamics 44
4 Afghanistan - Background 45
4.1 Country Profile 45
4.2 Ethnic Groups 46
4.3 The Political Structure 48
5 The Afghan Economy 50
5.1 The Afghan Economy at a Glance 50
5.2 Agriculture 51
5.3 Natural Resources 52
5.4 Infrastructure 53
5.5 Telecommunications 54
5.6 The Smuggling Economy 54
5.7 Economic Development 54
5.8 Foreign Aid 56
5.9 Local Procurement 58
5.1 Economic Development, Challenges 59
5.11 The Afghan Economy and Opium 60
6 Insurgency in Afghanistan 64
6.1 Afghani Insurgenency Groups 66
6.1.1 The Taliban 66
6.1.2 Haqqani Network 68
6.1.3 Hezb-E Islami Gulbuddin 69
6.2 Insurgency Strengths and Weaknesses 69
6.3 Insurgency Activity Trends 71
6.4 Afghani Civilian Casualties 71
6.5 Insurgency and Land Transportation 73
6.6 The role of IED Attacks 74
7 International Security Assistance Force 75
7.1 The ISAF activities 75
7.2 The ISAF Strength 75
7.3 ISAF Structure 77
7.4 US and ISAF Fatalities 78
7.5 ISRF Afghani and Regional Facilities 79
8 The Current US Strategy in Afghanistan 80
8.1 Key Goals 80
8.2 Lessons Learned 80
8.3 US and NATO Strategy: Priority Tasks 82
8.4 US Strategy in Pakistan 82
8.5 US Counter-Insurgency Tactics 83
9 Afghan National Security Organizations 84
9.1 Security Institutions 84
9.2 National Security Council 85
9.3 Ministry of Defense (MoD) 85
9.4 Ministry of Internal Affairs (MoI) 86
9.5 The Afghan National Police (ANP) 88
9.6 National Directorate of Security (NDS) 89
9.7 Afghan Government Security Missions 89
10 Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) - Market Background 92
10.1 Strength 92
10.2 Organizational Structure 92
10.3 Afghanistan Combined Security Transition Command 94
10.4 ANSF Funding 94
10.5 ANSF Salaries 95
10.6 ANSF Fatalities 96
10.7 ANSF Attrition 96
11 Afghan Government National Security Market - 2011-2016 98
11.1 ANA, ANP and Intel Community Markets - 2011-2016 98
12 The Afghan National Army (ANA) 100
12.1 Background 100
12.2 ANA Structure 103
12.3 ANA Recruiting and Retention 104
12.4 Combat Readiness Assessment 104
12.5 Ethnic and Factional Considerations 105
13 Afghan National Army (ANA) Market - 2011-2016 106
13.1 ANA Market - Background 106
13.2 ANA Market - 2011-2016 107
13.3 ANA Equipment Price List 108
14 Afghan National Air Force 110
14.1 Overview 110
14.2 Development Plan Through 2016 111
14.3 Air Force Facilities 112
15 Afghan National Air Force Market - 2011-2016 113
15.1 Fixed and Rotary Wing Aircrafts Market - 2011-2016 113
15.2 Air Force Auxiliary Equipment Market - 2011-2016 114
15.3 Air Force Service and Refurbishment Market - 2011-2016 115
15.4 Summary: Air Force Market - 2011-2016 116
16 The Afghan National Police (ANP) 117
16.1 Background 117
16.2 ANP Funding 120
16.3 ANP Recruiting and Retention 121
16.4 ANP Equipment 121
16.5 ANP Assessment 122
16.6 ANP Reform Programs 122
16.7 ANP “Focused District Development” Program 124
16.8 ANP Procurement Chain 125
17 Afghan National Police (ANP) Market - 2011-2016 126
17.1 ANP Itemized Price Lists 126
17.2 The Afghan National Police Market - 2011-2016 126
18 Afghan Intelligence Community 128
18.1 Scope 128
18.2 Major Findings 129
19 Afghan Intelligence Community Market - 2011-2016 130
19.1 Intelligence Community Market 130
19.2 Intelligence Community Command, Control and Communication Systems Market - 2011-2016 131
19.3 Intelligence Community SIGINT Equipment Market - 2011-2016 131
19.4 Intelligence Community Land Based Imagery Market - 2011-2016 132
19.5 Intelligence Community Information Technology Market - 2011-2016 132
19.6 Intelligence Community Other Equipment Market - 2011-2016 133
19.7 Intelligence Community Service and Refurbishment Market - 2011-2016 133
19.8 Summary: Intelligence Community Market - 2011-2016 135
20 Afghan Private Sector Homeland Security Market - 2011-2016 137
20.1 Background 137
20.2 Cost of Security 138
20.3 Afghan Private Sector Security Market - 2011-2016 140
21 Afghan National Security: Foreign Funding Agencies, Policies and Processes 141
21.1 Afghan Security Funding - Background 141
21.2 The “Afghanistan Security Forces Fund” 142
21.2.1 Policy and Procedures 142
21.2.2 Operations and Maintenance 144
21.3 Pseudo-Foreign Military Sales Procedures 145
21.4 Legal Provisions for Assisting the Afghan Security Forces 148
21.5 The Joint Contracting Command- Afghanistan (JCC-I/A) 149
21.6 US Security Forces Funding “CERP” 150
22 Light Weapons and Ammunition Market - 2011-2016 151
22.1 Market Background and Analysis 151
22.2 M16 Rifles Market - 2011-2016 152
22.3 Light Machine Gun Market - 2011-2016 152
22.4 Heavy Machine Guns Market - 2011-2016 153
22.5 Mortars, Grenade Launchers and Other Light Weapons Market - 2011-2016 153
22.5.1 Grenade Launchers 153
22.5.2 81mm Mortars 154
22.5.3 Other Light Weapons 154
22.5.4 Mortars and Other Light Weapons Market 154
22.6 Summary: Light Weapons Market - 2011-2016 155
22.7 Light Weapons Price List 158
23 Artillery Market - 2011-2016 160
23.1 155mm Howitzer Market - 2011-2016 160
23.2 Other Artillery Market - 2011-2016 161
23.3 Artillery: Auxiliary Equipment Market - 2011-2016 161
23.3.1 Fire Direction Centers 161
23.3.2 Artillery C-3I and Communication Equipment 161
23.3.3 Auxiliary Equipment Market 162
23.4 Summary: Artillery Market - 2011-2016 162
23.5 Artillery Price List 164
24 Military Wheeled Vehicles Market - 2011-2016 165
24.1 Humvee Market - 2011-2016 165
24.2 Armored Humvee Market - 2011-2016 166
24.3 Humvee Ambulances Market - 2011-2016 168
24.4 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles Market - 2011-2016 168
24.5 Medium Tactical Vehicles Market - 2011-2016 170
24.6 Line Haul Tractor Market - 2011-2016 171
24.7 20-T Dump Truck Market - 2011-2016 172
24.8 Soft Vehicles Market - 2011-2016 173
24.9 Other ANA and ANP Vehicles Market - 2011-2016 173
24.1 Summary: Military Wheeled Vehicles Market - 2011-2016 173
24.11 ANA and ANP Vehicles Equipment Price List 175
25 Critical Infrastructure Security Market - 2011-2016 176
25.1 Scope 176
25.2 Afghanistan Infrastructure Background 177
25.2.1 Electric Utilities Infrastructure Security 177
25.2.2 Transportation Security 177
25.3 Utilities (Electric, Water and Gas) Infrastructure Security Market - 2011-2016 177
25.4 Land Transportation Infrastructure Security Market - 2011-2016 178
25.5 Airport Security Market - 2011-2016 178
25.6 Communication Infrastructure Security Market - 2011-2016 181
25.7 Other Critical Infrastruture Markets - 2011-2016 181
25.8 Summary: Critical Infrastructure Security Market - 2011-2016 182
26 ANA and ANP Communication Equipment Market - 2011-2016 184
26.1 Market Background 184
26.2 Manpack Squad Radios Market - 2011-2016 184
26.3 Vehicle-Mounted Tranceivers Market - 2011-2016 185
26.4 Satellite Monitoring and Intercept Systems Market - 2011-2016 186
26.5 Secure Voice/Data Equipment Market - 2011-2016 187
26.6 Switchboards Market - 2011-2016 187
26.7 Other Communication Gear Market - 2011-2016 188
26.8 Summary: Communication Equipment Market [$M] - 2011-2016 189
26.9 Communication Equipment Price List 191
27 Counter-IED Market Outlook - 2011-2016 192
27.1 IEDs in Afghanistan - Background 192
27.1.1 IEDs Incidents 192
27.1.2 “Passive Infrared” and Explosively Formed Projectile IEDs 194
27.1.3 IED Countermeasures 194
27.1.4 Radio IED Jammers - Triggers 195
27.2 Man-Portable IED Jammers Market - 2011-2016 196
27.3 Vehicle-Mounted Jammer Market - 2011-2016 196
27.4 Other Counter IED Equipment Market - 2011-2016 197
27.5 Summary: Counter-IED Market: Equipment Sales, Service and Refurbishment - 2011-2016 198
28 ANA and ANP Training Market - 2011-2016 200
28.1 ANSF Training Market Background 200
28.2 ANA Training Market Background 201
28.2.1 Training Organization 201
28.2.2 Training Programs 203
28.2.3 Training Centers 204
28.3 ANP Training Market Background 205
28.3.1 Organization 205
28.3.2 ANP Training Program 206
28.4 ANA and ANP Training Markets - 2011-2016 207
29 Perimeter Security Market - 2011-2016 209
29.1 Scope and Market Background 209
29.2 Perimeter Security Construction, Electronic Sensors and C3 Systems Market - 2011-2016 210
29.3 Perimeter Security Service Market - 2011-2016 211
30 Afghanistan Security-Related IT and Biometrics Market - 2011-2016 212
30.1 Scope 212
30.2 Internet and Mobile Communications: Background 213
30.3 Security IT and Biometrics Market - 2011-2016 214
30.3.1 Security IT Market 214
30.3.2 I.D. Cards Market 215
30.3.3 Security IT and Biometrics: Market Summary 215
31 ANA and ANP Facilities Construction Market - 2011-2016 217
32 Appendix A: Doing Business in Afghanistan 218
32.1 Introduction 218
32.2 Judicial and Regulatory Issues 220
32.3 Predictability of Government Policies and Actions 220
32.4 Corruption 220
32.5 Trade Policy and Trade Facilitation 221
32.6 Customs Administration 221
32.7 Trade Facilitation Services 222
32.8 The Afghan Informal Business Arrangements 222
32.9 Property Rights 224
32.1 Electricity and Infrastructure 226
32.11 Transportation 228
32.12 Telecommunications 229
32.13 Access to Land 230
32.14 Corruption 231
32.15 Skilled Labor Shortage 232
32.16 Legal and Regulatory Issues 233
32.17 Trade Policy 234
32.18 Cost of Shipping 236
32.19 Business Services 236
32.2 Starting a Business in Afghanistan 239
32.21 Protecting Investors 240
32.22 Paying Taxes 240
32.23 Enforcing Contracts 241
32.24 Key Government Agencies in Afghanistan 241
33 Appendix B: The 2010 White House Annual Review of Afghanistan and Pakistan 242
33.1 Background 242
33.2 Overall Assessment 242
33.3 Summary of Findings 243
33.3.1 Al-Qa’ida 243
33.3.2 Pakistan 244
33.3.3 Afghanistan 245
34 Appendix C: Acronyms and Abbreviations 247

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