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  5. > Germany Power Report Q3 2016

Germany Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 92 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Germany will not diverge from the Energiewende and there will be structural changes to theway power is generated and consumed. This will continue to take a toll on traditional utilities - with littleindication that the newly designed 'electricity market 2.0' will reverse this situation. Strong, albeit slowergrowth, in renewables-based electricity generation will continue to depress wholesale electricity prices anddrive thermal generation out of the electricity.

Latest Updates

- We have largely retained our forecast for growth in electricity generation, consumption and capacity thisquarter. Germany will not diverge from its renewables-focused energy policy - despite the ongoingimplementation of the 'energy market 2.0' and reforms to slow the pace and reduce the cost of theEnergiewende (energy transition). As such, renewables capacity will continue to grow - ensuring thatwholesale electricity prices remain depressed and margins at thermal plants - especially gas plants withhigher marginal costs - will continue to be squeezed.

- In line with our views, and Germany's status as a global leader in renewables-based electricity generation,it was reported that 90% of total power demand was met using renewables for a few hours on May 82016. The influx of renewable-based electricity supply sent wholesale electricity prices into negativeterritory. This meant that higher marginal cost thermal capacity was forced to pay wholesale electricitybuyers to take the electricity - emphasising the ongoing threat to thermal capacity in Germany.

- These dynamics pose an existential threat to utilities such as E.ON and RWE. Utilities are struggling toadapt as thermal capacity is squeezed out of the generation mix by an influx of subsidised wind and solarcapacity, which has priority access to the grid. At its annual general meeting in June 2016, 99.68% ofE.ON's shareholders approved plans to spin-off its fossil-fuelled generation assets and supply and tradingbusiness into a new entity known as Uniper. It is hoped the move will allow the slimmed down E.ON tofocus on growth areas such as renewables, networks and energy services - without having to focus on itsdeclining thermal assets.

- To this end, we maintain that the Energiewende has broken the gas-fired generation model in Germanyand the outlook for gas power remains bleak amid low wholesale electricity prices and negative sparkmargins. As such, we have maintained our forecast for gas-fired electricity generation to contract by4.2% in 2016.

Table Of Contents

Germany Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Germany 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Germany Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Germany 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Germany 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Germany Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 32
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 33
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 34
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 34
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 37
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 37
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 38
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 40
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 40
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 40
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk/Reward Index 42
NAWE Power RRI: US Outperforms Tepid European Power Markets 42
Germany Power Risk/Reward Index 47
Rewards 47
Risks 47
Market Overview 49
Key Policies And Market Structure 49
Regulation And Competition 49
Sustainable Energy Policies 50
Germany Power Projects Database 54
Table: Germany Major Projects - Power 54
Competitive Landscape 59
EON 59
RWE 60
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) 61
Vattenfall 61
Verbund 62
Company Profile 63
RWE 63
EON 69
Regional Overview 78
NAWE Power Key Themes 78
Glossary 86
Table: Glossary Of Terms 86
Methodology 87
Methodology And Sources 87
Industry Forecast Methodology 87
Sources 90
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 90
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 91
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 92

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