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  5. > Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 83 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With the start up of new production at TEN and Sankofa fields, as well as increasing outputfrom the country's flagship Jubilee field, we expect Ghana to double its crude and gas production over thenext five years. We note an upside risk to our projections arising from the ongoing exploration activitiesover the medium term, but the country's output levels have been suffering from recurring technical issues atthe production facilities. Our outlook for Ghana's downstream sector is more subdued due to ageing andinefficient infrastructure, and we expect only minor production additions over the coming decade.

The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:

- Between 2015 and 2025, we forecast Ghana's oil reserves to decrease by 7.4% from an estimated 700million barrels (mn bbl) to 648mn bbl. However, Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreageoffshore and we acknowledge a strong upside risk from continued exploration.

- Ghana's crude oil and liquids production stood at an estimated 109,200b/d in 2015 and we forecast thisfigure to nearly double to 216,720b/d by the end of 2020. However, recurring technical issues at thefloating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel could lower the expected output from thecountry's key producing Jubilee field.

- We expect Ghana's current refining capacity to remain stable at 45,000b/d over the coming decade. In2015, Ghana produced just 9,000b/d of refined fuels due to outages and low utilisation rates at the TOR.We anticipate the output to increase gradually in the next 10 years due to ongoing maintenance andupgrades at the facility.

- In 2015, estimated refined products consumption in Ghana stood at 78,320b/d, marking a 7.3% y-o-yincrease. Over the coming decade, we forecast the consumption to increase by an average of 4.2% perannum, driven mostly by greater demand in diesel and motor gasoline.

Table Of Contents

Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Tano Basin Blocks Exploration, 2007-2013 12
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2020-2025) 21
Upstream Production - Gas 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2014-2019) 24
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2020-2025) 24
Refining 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2014-2019) 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2020-2025) 34
Gas Consumption 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Oil 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Crude Oil 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2020) 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) 39
Refined Fuels 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) 41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) 44
Industry Risk Reward Index 45
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 48
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 48
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 51
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 51
Ghana - Risk/Reward Index 53
Upstream Index 53
Downstream Index 54
Market Overview 55
Ghana Energy Market Overview 55
Regulatory Overview 55
Licensing Regime 56
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms 56
Fiscal Regime 57
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms 57
Licensing Rounds 57
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 58
Oil Refineries 58
Table: Ghana Oil Refineries 58
Oil Storage Facilities 58
Table: Ghana Main Oil Storage Facilities 58
Oil Trade Facilities 59
Table: Ghana Main Oil Trade Facilities 59
Competitive Landscape 60
Competitive Landscape Summary 60
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector 61
Table: Key Upstream Players 61
Table: Key Downstream Player 62
Company Profile 63
Tullow Oil 63
Latest Updates 63
Table: Major Company Upstream Assets in Ghana 64
Table: Key Financial Data 64
GNPC 65
Latest Updates 65
Table: GNPC Major Upstream Assets In Ghana 66
Table: Key Financial Data 66
Regional Overview 67
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 67
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 75
Glossary 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms 76
Methodology 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Source 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 80
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 82
Table: Weighting 83

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