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  5. > Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 94 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Central America's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently acrosssectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 2019/20. Along the way, the different sectors of themarket will be forced to fight against headwinds that will directly impact output growth across somecountries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations, as well as an improving realGDP outlook for the region, demand will outstrip supply in the livestock and grains sectors over the nextfive years. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, orroya) and the potential impact of La Niña (which has a 50-75% chance of appearing in H216 and lingeringinto H117) on food security in the region.

Key Forecasts

- We expect coffee production in the key producer nation of Guatemala for 2015/16 to reach 3.32mn 60kgbags. As the effects of roya have eased and regional prices remain elevated, output will accelerate acrossthe region to 2019/20.

- We see demand for corn in Guatemala reaching a level of 2.6mn tonnes in 2016 and 2.7mn tonnes in2017.

- We see pork output in Panama reaching 35,500 tonnes by 2020 and consumption reaching 59,100 tonnesby the same date. These figures have been revised upwards thanks to an increase in US Department ofAgriculture (USDA) data for pork consumption and production in Panama for 2015, which shifted ourviews for the subsequent years in the local livestock sector.

- Our forecast for sugar output in 2015/16 in the key producer nation of Guatemala is 2.97mn tonnes. By2020 output will reach a level of 3.13mn tonnes.

- 2016 real GDP growth (regional average): 3.8% (down from 3.9% in 2015)

- 2016 consumer price inflation (regional average): 2.2% (up from 1.7% in 2015)

Table Of Contents

Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Livestock Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Central America - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 13
Table: Selected Countries - Beef and Veal Production and Consumption 14
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production and Consumption 14
Grains Outlook 15
Latest Updates 15
Table: Central America - Corn Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production and Consumption 17
Coffee Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Central America - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production and Consumption 20
Sugar Outlook 22
Latest Updates 22
Table: Central America - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production and Consumption 24
Commodities Price Analysis 25
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 25
Upstream Analysis 27
Americas GM Outlook 27
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 33
Americas Machinery Outlook 40
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 43
Downstream Analysis 47
Food 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends 47
Table: Food Sales (Central America 2013-2020) 49
Regional Overview 51
Demographic Forecast 58
Demographic Outlook 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025) 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025) 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025) 61
Demographic Outlook 63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 64
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 66
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025) 71
Demographic Outlook 73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025) 74
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025) 74
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025) 76
Demographic Outlook 78
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 79
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 79
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 81
Demographic Outlook 83
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025) 84
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025) 84
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025) 85
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025) 85
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025) 86
Demographic Outlook 87
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025) 89
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025) 89
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025) 90
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025) 90
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025) 91
Methodology 93
Industry Forecast Methodology 93
Sector-Specific Methodology 94

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