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Spain Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The majority of Spanish power generation will be sourced from non-hydropower renewablesand gas-fired power over our 10-year forecast period to 2025. Thermal power growth will come mainlyfrom mothballed capacity being brought back online. Investment into new power sources - especially nonhydropowerrenewables - will be delayed as investors await clarity on policy direction on subsidies afterthe June 2016 national elections.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We have revised our forecasts for coal generation in light of Red Eléctrica de España's latest annualreport indicating coal-fired generation increased by 9 terawatt hours (TWh) between 2014 and 2015. Weexpect that this is a result of the Spanish coal industry being shielded until 2018, after whichtime 'ordered closures' will be enacted.

- Spanish Energy Secretary Pedro Marín has stated that the government possibly intends to remove nuclearpower plants as a generation option over the medium term. We note that this will have a marked impacton nuclear generation over our forecast period if this is implemented, however we await the results of theJune 2016 national elections and an official government policy before removing any Spanish nuclearreactors from our forecasts.

- Our forecasts for nuclear power generation remain unchanged since last quarter.

- Our Country Risk team expect a grand coalition government to be formed after the Spanish nationalelection. The election will be held on June 26 2016, after the 2015 elections failed to produce a clearwinner. We expect the resulting coalition to be mostly pro-renewable electricity, which will help improvethe investment climate for non-hydropower renewables. However, until policy certainty is established, weexpect investment will remain muted.

- Red Eléctrica CEO Juan Lasala has stated that the transmission system operator will seek to increaseinterconnection capacity between Spain and the neighbouring countries of Spain and Portugal to 8,000megawatts.

Table Of Contents

Spain Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Spain 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Spain Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Spain 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Spain 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Spain Power Forecast Scenario 10
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 10
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Table: Nuclear Power Reactors Operating In Spain (March 2016) 15
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025) 21
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025) 22
Electricity Consumption 23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025) 24
Transmission And Distribution 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025) 26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019) 26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025) 27
Industry Risk/Reward Index 28
NAWE Power RRI: US Outperforms Tepid European Power Markets 28
Spain Power Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 33
Market Overview 35
Key Policies And Market Structure 35
Regulation And Competition 35
Sustainable Energy Policies 36
Pricing 37
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States 38
Spain Power Projects Database 39
Competitive Landscape 42
Endesa 42
Iberdrola 43
Red Electrica (REE) 43
Unión Fenosa 43
Company Profile 45
Endesa 45
Iberdrola 48
Regional Overview 52
NAWE Power Key Themes 52
Glossary 60
Table: Glossary Of Terms 60
Methodology 61
Methodology And Sources 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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