Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

  • June 2013
  • -
  • Navigant Research
  • -
  • 17 pages


Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid,
and Battery Electric Vehicles: 2013-2020

Hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles are becoming an increasingly important part of the automotive market. The growth in sales of these vehicles is being driven not only by the appeal of the vehicles themselves, but also by consumer demand for vehicles that cost less to operate than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, by government influence on the market, and by a rebounding economic environment.

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), which today account for 2% of global light duty vehicle sales, are expected to grow to almost 4% by 2020. While HEVs are largely accepted as a part of the automotive market in many regions, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) remain a new technology with challenges inherent in new markets. Nevertheless, Navigant Research forecasts that the PEV market will grow rapidly in many regions as a result of rising fuel prices, falling PEV prices, and increasing availability of PEV models. The result is a PEV market that will reach 3 million vehicles sold in 2020, representing 3% of the global light-duty vehicle market. The leading market for PEV sales in 2020 will be Japan, with nearly 900,000 vehicles sold that year.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric passenger cars and light duty trucks. The report includes comprehensive data for sales along with underlying forecast assumptions for the consumer and fleet markets. Forecasts for annual vehicle sales by electric vehicle drivetrain, with comparisons to competing drivetrains, extend through 2020, segmented by world region and key countries.


Key Questions Addressed:

• How many hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles will sell each year through 2020?
• What are the key factors driving growth in the electrified vehicle market?
• What will be the penetration of hybrids and PEVs within the total annual vehicle market?
• How do hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicle sales compare to other alternative drivetrains through 2020?
• What are the plug-in and hybrid models expected to be launched by OEMs in the next few years?
• What are the anticipated gas and diesel prices through 2020?
• What incentives are available for PEV purchases?
• How many hybrid and plug-in vehicles will be sold to fleet customers?

Who needs this report?

• Automotive OEMs
• Electric vehicle component suppliers
• Electric motor manufacturers
• Battery manufacturers
• EV charging equipment manufacturers
• Utilities
• Government agencies
• Industry associations
• Investor community

Table Of Contents

Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1 Market Assumptions
1.2 Market Forecasts
2. Data Assumptions
2.1 Background
2.2 Vehicle Definitions
2.3 Vehicle Availability
2.4 Economic Assumptions
2.5 Government Incentives
2.6 Vehicle Pricing
2.7 Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations
2.8 Fuel Prices
3. Market Forecasts
3.1 Light Duty Vehicles
3.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicles
3.3 Plug-In Electric Vehicles
3.4 Conclusions and Recommendations
4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes


List of Charts and Figures


• Annual Light Duty Electric Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Average Fuel Price by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013 2020
• Cumulative Number of Light Duty Vehicles by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Fleet/Commercial Percentage of HEV/PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020


List of Tables

• Incremental Cost for EV Drivetrains, Select Regions: 2012
• Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, North America: 2012-2015
• Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Europe: 2012 2015
• Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2012-2015
• Gross Domestic Product by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
• Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Light Duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV Incentives by Country: 2013
• Average Gasoline Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Average Diesel Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual Light Duty Vehicle Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Cumulative Light Duty Vehicles by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Cumulative Light Duty Vehicles by Drivetrain by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013 2020
• Growth Rate of Annual HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• HEV Share of Total Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013 2020
• Growth Rate of Annual PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• PHEV Share of Total Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013 2020
• Growth Rate of BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• BEV Share of Total Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual HEV Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual PHEV Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Annual BEV Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
• Fleet/Commercial Percentage of HEV/PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020

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