CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Key findings 2
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 3
Therapeutic strategy 5
Launch and expiry outlook 9
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 12
Externalization strategy 13
Geographic strategy 14
Molecule type strategy 15
SWOT analysis 17
Strengths 17
Weaknesses 20
Opportunities 21
Threats 23
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 29
Key findings 29
Background 30
Key corporate developments 30
1925-2002 30
2002-present: the Roche alliance era 31
M&A history 33
Roche Group 34
Chugai steers Japanese entry of Roche/Genentech pipeline 34
Current corporate structure 35
Current management team 37
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 38
Key findings 38
Introduction 39
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2001-06 39
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 41
Product analysis, 2001-06 44
Growth drivers 45
Tamiflu 45
Rituxan 46
Neutrogin 46
Herceptin 47
Evista 47
Kytril 47
Growth resistors 48
Alfarol 48
Epogin 48
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2001-06 49
Operating revenue/cost analysis 51
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 54
Key findings 54
Introduction 55
Revenue and growth rate, 2006-12 55
Product analysis, 2006-12 56
Growth drivers 62
Avastin 62
Rituxan 63
Herceptin 63
ED-71 63
R744 64
Others 64
Growth resistors 65
Epogin 65
Furtulon 65
Other 65
Therapy area analysis, 2006-12 68
Oncology 71
Urology & sexual health 71
Immunology & inflammation 72
Infectious disease 72
Gastroenterology 73
Therapy area focus 73
Launches and expiries analysis, 2006-12 77
Launch portfolio 77
Core portfolio 81
Expiry portfolio 84
Launch/core/expiry configuration 87
Externalization analysis, 2006-12 90
Geographic analysis, 2006-12 98
Molecule type analysis, 2006-12 102
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 108
Key findings 108
Overview 109
Oncology 110
Rituxan 110
Overview 110
Sales forecast 111
Newsflow 111
Competitive landscape 112
Avastin 114
Overview 114
Sales forecast 115
Newsflow 116
Competitive landscape 117
Herceptin 119
Overview 119
Sales forecast 120
Newsflow 120
Competitive landscape 121
Neutrogin 123
Overview 123
Sales forecast 124
Newsflow 124
Competitive landscape 124
Key competitors 127
Cardiovascular & hematology 128
Epogin 128
Overview 128
Sales forecast 129
Newsflow 129
Competitive landscape 130
Key competitors 132
Urology & sexual health 133
Evista 133
Overview 133
Sales forecast 134
Newsflow 134
Competitive landscape 134
Key competitors 136
Infectious diseases 137
Tamiflu 137
Overview 137
Sales forecast 138
Newsflow 138
Competitive landscape 139
Key competitors 142
R&D pipeline 143
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 148
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 148
References 150
Abbreviations 151
Exchange rates 152
List of Tables
Table 1: Chugai Pharmaceutical Executive Committee 37
Table 2: Peer set overview 41
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 49
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 51
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 56
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 68
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 77
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 81
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 84
Table 10: Externally developed portfolio ($m), 2006-12 91
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 102
Table 12: Key products overview 109
Table 13: Rituxan: overview 110
Table 14: Rituxan: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 111
Table 15: Rituxan: news flow 111
Table 16: Avastin: overview 114
Table 17: Avastin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 115
Table 18: Avastin: news flow 116
Table 19: Herceptin: overview 119
Table 20: Herceptin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 120
Table 21: Herceptin: news flow 120
Table 22: Neutrogin: overview 123
Table 23: Neutrogin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 124
Table 24: Neutrogin: news flow 124
Table 25: Epogin: overview 128
Table 26: Epogin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 129
Table 27: Epogin: news flow 129
Table 28: Evista: overview 133
Table 29: Evista: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 134
Table 30: Evista: news flow 134
Table 31: Tamiflu: overview 137
Table 32: Tamiflu: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 138
Table 33: Tamiflu: news flow 138
Table 34: Stockpiling vs. prescription Tamiflu sales ($m), 2005-06 140
Table 35: Chugai's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 143
Table 36: Chugai's indication broadening pipeline (Phase I-registration) 144
Table 37: Exchange rates, 2006 152
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Chugai and Japanese Pharma peer set 3
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Japanese Pharma peer set (%), 2006 6
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Chugai 9
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 11
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2006 12
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2012 13
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Chugai 17
Figure 8: M&A/divestment history 33
Figure 9: Chugai Pharmaceutical's global network 36
Figure 10: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2001-06 39
Figure 11: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2001-06 42
Figure 12: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2001-06 45
Figure 13: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 50
Figure 14: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 53
Figure 15: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2006-12 55
Figure 16: Top 5 products by sales ($m), 2006 58
Figure 17: Top 5 products by sales ($m), 2012 60
Figure 18: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2006-12 62
Figure 19: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2006-12 66
Figure 20: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 69
Figure 21: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2006-12 70
Figure 22: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2006-12 73
Figure 23: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2006 75
Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2012 76
Figure 25: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 79
Figure 26: Core products sales growth ($m), 2006-12 83
Figure 27: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 86
Figure 28: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2006-12 87
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Chugai 88
Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 89
Figure 31: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2006-12 93
Figure 32: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2006-12 94
Figure 33: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 95
Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 96
Figure 35: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 98
Figure 36: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2006-12 99
Figure 37: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 100
Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 101
Figure 39: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 103
Figure 40: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2006-12 104
Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 105
Figure 42: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 106
Figure 43: Direct competition in the Japanese neutropenia market 127
Figure 44: Direct competition in the Japanese anemia market 132
Figure 45: Direct competition in the Japanese osteoporosis market 136
Figure 46: Quarterly neuraminidase antiviral sales in Japan, ethical sales ($m), Q1-Q4 2006 141
Figure 47: Direct competition in the Japanese influenza market 142
Figure 48: Chugai's R&D and indication broadening pipeline, Phase I-registration 145
Figure 49: Chugai's pipeline by molecule type 146
Figure 50: Chugai's pipeline by therapy area 147
Figure 51: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2006 149
Figure 52: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2006-12 150
