The Gastrointestinal Market Outlook to 2012

The Gastrointestinal Market Outlook to 2012

As the GIT Market begins to feature increasingly high levels of generic competition, the focus of pharmaceutical R&D strategies has shifted towards new therapy areas such as Crohn’s disease and Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). Although such shifts are becoming the driving force for market transformation, growth rates may remain low due to the increased availability of effective generic medicines and fewer launches of innovative new drugs. ‘The Gastrointestinal Market Outlook to 2012’ is a new report published by Business Insights that provides a detailed epidemiological analysis of key indications within major GIT markets, and examines the factors impacting their prevalence. The dynamics of the market are examined through an analysis of leading brands within each indication and a profile of the pharma companies and market trends influencing the sales of GIT treatments. Forecasts for major product sales over the 2006-12 period are also provided.

Table of Contents
The Gastrointestinal Market Outlook to 2012
Executive Summary 12
Patient potential of GIT therapeutic area 12
Global market analysis 13
Pipeline analysis 14
Competitive landscape 15
Chapter 1 Patient potential of GIT
therapeutic area 18
Summary 18
Introduction 19
Gastroesophageal reflux disorder 21
Overview 21
Diagnosis, treatment and management 22
Epidemiology 23
Forecast epidemiology 25
Peptic ulcer disease 26
Overview 26
Diagnosis, treatment and management 28
Epidemiology 29
Forecast epidemiology 30
Irritable bowel syndrome 32
Overview 32
Diagnosis, treatment and management 33
Epidemiology 34
Ulcerative colitis 37
Overview 37
Diagnosis, treatment and management 38
Epidemiology 39
Forecast epidemiology 40
Crohn’s disease 41
Overview 41
Diagnosis, treatment and management 42
Epidemiology 43
Forecast epidemiology 45
Chapter 2 Global market analysis 48
Summary 48
Introduction 49
Market analysis by country 49
Licensing trends 50
Market analysis by drug class 51
Leading brand dynamics 54
Key events in the GIT market 56
Gastroesophageal reflux disorder and peptic ulcer disease 57
Leading brands of the GERD/PUD market 60
Proton pump inhibitor market analysis 62
Market dynamics 62
Key brands analysis 62
Histamine-2 receptor antagonist market analysis 71
Market dynamics 71
Key brands analysis 71
GERD/PUD sales forecasts to 2012 75
Irritable bowel syndrome 76
Competitive dynamics of IBS subclasses 76
Leading brands of the IBS market 79
GI sensorimotor modulators market analysis 80
Market dynamics 80
Key brands analysis 81
Antispasmodics/anticholinergics 84
Market dynamics 84
IBS sales forecasts to 2012 86
Inflammatory bowel disease: Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis 87
Competitive dynamics of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis subclasses 87
Leading brands of IBD subclasses 90
Immunosuppressants market analysis 92
Market dynamics 92
Key brands analysis 93
Anti-rheumatic agents 97
Market dynamics 97
Key brands analysis 97
Intestinal anti-inflammatory agents 100
Market dynamics 100
Key brands analysis 100
IBD sales forecasts to 2012 102
Total GIT sales forecasts to 2012 103
Chapter 3 Pipeline analysis 106
Summary 106
Introduction 107
Key trends in R&D 107
Increasing penetration of generics in the GERD/PUD market will continue to
limit R&D investment 107
Continuing, yet uncertain focus on drug development in irritable bowel
syndrome 108
Emerging therapies for the management of inflammatory bowel disease 108
New mechanism of action 108
The GIT therapeutic area pipeline 109
Leading drugs in development 110
Profiles of key pipeline products 111
Phase II compounds 111
tetomilast (OPC-6535) 111
Alicaforsen (ISIS 2302) 112
OX-17 113
S-tenatoprazole-Na 114
Phase III compounds 116
Renzapride 116
Kremezin (AST-120) 118
Cimzia (certolizumab pegol) 119
TAK-390MR (dexlansoprazole) 121
Orencia (abatacept) 122
Drugs in registration 125
Ramosetron 125
Recently marketed drugs 126
Amitiza (lubiprostone) 126
Pipeline forecasts 128
Factors affecting forecasts 128
GIT pipeline forecasts 129
Chapter 4 Competitive landscape 132
Summary 132
Introduction 133
Market share 133
AstraZeneca 136
Overview 136
Sales focus by drug class 136
Marketed product portfolio 137
R&D pipeline 138
Strategic analysis 139
Sales and promotions 139
Growth drivers 139
Growth constraints 139
Wyeth 141
Overview 141
Sales focus by drug class 141
Marketed product portfolio 142
R&D pipeline 143
Strategic analysis 144
Sales and promotions 144
Growth drivers 145
Growth constraints 145
Abbott 146
Overview 146
Sales focus by drug class 146
Marketed product portfolio 147
R&D pipeline 148
Strategic analysis 149
Sales and promotions 149
Growth drivers 150
Growth constraints 150
Johnson & Johnson 151
Overview 151
Sales focus by drug class 151
Marketed product portfolio 152
R&D pipeline 153
Strategic analysis 154
Sales and promotions 154
Growth drivers 154
Growth constraints 155
Takeda 156
Overview 156
Sales focus by drug class 156
Marketed product portfolio 157
R&D pipeline 158
Strategic analysis 159
Sales and promotions 159
Growth drivers 159
Growth constraints 160
Novartis 161
Overview 161
Sales focus by drug class 161
Marketed product portfolio 162
R&D pipeline 163
Strategic analysis 164
Sales and promotions 164
Growth drivers 165
Growth constraints 165
Astellas 166
Overview 166
Sales focus by drug class 166
Marketed product portfolio 167
R&D pipeline 168
Strategic analysis 169
Sales and promotions 169
Growth drivers 169
Growth constraints 170
Eisai 171
Overview 171
Sales focus by drug class 171
Marketed product portfolio 172
R&D pipeline 172
Strategic analysis 173
Sales and promotions 173
Growth drivers 173
Growth constraints 173
Altana 175
Overview 175
Sales focus by drug class 175
Marketed product portfolio 176
R&D pipeline 176
Strategic analysis 177
Sales and promotions 177
Growth drivers 177
Growth constraints 177
Procter & Gamble 178
Overview 178
Sales focus by drug class 178
Marketed product portfolio 179
R&D pipeline 179
Strategic analysis 180
Sales and promotions 180
Growth drivers 180
Growth constraints 181
Chapter 5 Appendix 184
IMS data 184
Licensing status 184
Index 186
Index 186
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Global GIT market share by geography, 2006 49
Figure 2.2: Licensing status of global GIT sales, 2005-06 ($bn) 50
Figure 2.3: Competitive dynamics of the global GIT market by drug class, 2006 53
Figure 2.4: Competitive dynamics of the leading 10 brands in the global GIT market, 2005-06 55
Figure 2.5: Competitive dynamics of the global GERD/PUD market, 2005-06 59
Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of the leading 10 brands in the global GERD/PUD market, 2005-06 61
Figure 2.7: Competitive dynamics of the global IBS market, 2005-06 78
Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the leading 10 brands in the global IBS market, 2005-06 80
Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of the global IBD market, 2005-06 89
Figure 2.10: Competitive dynamics of the leading 10 brands in the global IBD market, 2005-06 92
Figure 3.11: Prevailing R&D approaches 107
Figure 3.12: The GIT pipeline by indication and stage of development, 2006 109
Figure 3.13: Recently launched products and late-stage R&D compounds indicated for the GIT therapeutic area, 2006 110
Figure 4.14: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global GIT market, 2006 135
Figure 4.15: AstraZeneca’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 136
Figure 4.16: Wyeth’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 141
Figure 4.17: Abbott’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 146
Figure 4.18: J&J’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 151
Figure 4.19: Takeda’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 156
Figure 4.20: Novartis’ GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 161
Figure 4.21: Astellas’ GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 166
Figure 4.22: Eisai’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 171
Figure 4.23: Altana’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 175
Figure 4.24: P&G’s GIT sales, 2006 ($m) 178
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Estimated prevalence of major GIT indications in the seven major pharmaceutical
markets, 2005 20
Table 1.2: Estimated prevalence of GERD across the seven major markets, 2006 23
Table 1.3: Forecast epidemiology of GERD across the seven major markets, 2006-12 25
Table 1.4: Estimated prevalence of PUD in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2006 29
Table 1.5: Forecast epidemiology of PUD across the seven major markets, 2006-12 31
Table 1.6: Estimated prevalence of IBS in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2006 34
Table 1.7: Forecast epidemiology of IBS across the seven major markets, 2006-12 36
Table 1.8: Estimated prevalence of ulcerative colitis in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2006 39
Table 1.9: Estimated epidemiology of UC across the seven major markets, 2006–12 40
Table 1.10: Estimated prevalence of Crohn’s disease in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2006 43
Table 1.11: Forecast prevalence of Crohn’s disease across the seven major markets, 2006–12 45
Table 2.12: Market size ($m) and growth (%) of drug classes within the global GIT market, 2002- 06 51
Table 2.13: Market size ($m) and growth (%) of leading brands in the global GIT market, 2005–06 54
Table 2.14: Market size ($m) and growth (%) of drug classes within the global GERD and PUD market, 2002-06 57
Table 2.15: Market size ($m) and growth (%) of leading GERD/PUD products, 2005–06 60
Table 2.16: GERD/PUD sales forecast, 2006-12 ($m) 75
Table 2.17: Market size (US$) and growth (%) of drug classes within the global IBS market, 2002- 06 76
Table 2.18: Market size ($m) and growth (%) of leading IBS brands, 2005–06 79
Table 2.19: IBS sales forecast, 2006-12 ($m) 86
Table 2.20: Market Share ($m) and growth (%) of drug classes within the global IBD market, 2002-06 87
Table 2.21: Market size ($m) and growth (%) of leading IBD brands, 2005–06 90
Table 2.22: IBD sales forecast, 2006-12 ($m) 102
Table 2.23: GIT therapeutic sales forecasts by drug class, 2006-12 ($m) 103
Table 3.24: GIT pipeline sales forecasts, 2006-12 ($m) 129
Table 4.25: Market share ($m) and growth (%) of leading corporations in the global GIT market, 2005-06 133
Table 4.26: AstraZeneca’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 137
Table 4.27: AstraZeneca’s R&D product pipeline, 2006 138
Table 4.28: Promotional spend on major GIT drugs by AstraZeneca, 2005-06 ($m) 139
Table 4.29: Wyeth’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 142
Table 4.30: Wyeth’s R&D product pipeline, 2006 144
Table 4.31: Promotional spend on major GIT drugs by Wyeth, 2005-06 ($m) 144
Table 4.32: Abbott’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 147
Table 4.33: Abbott’s R&D product pipeline, 2006 148
Table 4.34: Promotional spend on major GIT drugs by Abbott, 2005-06 ($m) 149
Table 4.35: J&J’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 153
Table 4.36: J&J’s R&D product pipeline, 2006 153
Table 4.37: Promotional spend on major drugs by J&J, 2005-06 ($m) 154
Table 4.38: Takeda’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 157
Table 4.39: Takeda’s R&D product pipeline, 2006 158
Table 4.40: Promotional spend on major drugs by Takeda, 2005-06 159
Table 4.41: Novartis’ GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 162
Table 4.42: Novartis’ R&D product pipeline, 2006 164
Table 4.43: Promotional spend on major drugs by Novartis, 2005-06 ($m) 164
Table 4.44: Astellas’ GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 167
Table 4.45: Astellas’ R&D product pipeline, 2006 168
Table 4.46: Promotional spend on major drugs by Astellas, 2005-06 169
Table 4.47: Eisai’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 172
Table 4.48: Eisai’s R&D product pipeline, 2006 172
Table 4.49: Promotional spend on major drugs by Eisai, 2005-06 173
Table 4.50: Altana’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 176
Table 4.51: Promotional spend on major drugs by Altana, 2005-06 177
Table 4.52: P&G’s GIT portfolio sales, 2005-06 ($m) 179
Table 4.53: P&G’s R&D product pipeline, 2006 180