Organon: PharmaVitae Profile

Organon: PharmaVitae Profile

Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Organon in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Scope

Highlights

Reasons to Purchase

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Key findings 2
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 3
Therapeutic strategy 5
Launch and expiry outlook 8
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 10
Externalization strategy 11
Geographic strategy 12
Molecule type strategy 12
SWOT analysis 14
Strengths 14
Weaknesses 16
Opportunities 17
Threats 20
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 24
Key findings 24
Background 25
Key corporate developments 26
Imminent IPO diverted following Schering-Plough's entry into the fray 27
M&A history 28
M&A strategy 28
Organon M&A 29
Current corporate structure 30
Current management team 31
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 32
Key findings 32
Introduction 33
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2001-06 33
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 34
Product analysis, 2001-06 36
Growth drivers 36
NuvaRing 36
Puregon 37
Growth resistors 37
Remeron 37
Livial 37
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2001-06 39
Operating revenue/cost analysis 41
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 43
Key findings 43
Introduction 44
Revenue and growth rate, 2006-12 44
Product analysis, 2006-12 45
Growth drivers 50
Asenapine 50
Sugammadex 50
Org 50081 (insomnia) 51
NuvaRing 51
Implanon 52
Growth resistors 52
Esmeron 52
Livial 53
Therapy area analysis, 2006-12 55
Central nervous system 57
Urology & sexual health 58
Therapy area focus 59
Launches and expiries analysis, 2006-12 62
Launch portfolio 63
Core portfolio 66
Expiry portfolio 68
Launch/core/expiry configuration 71
Externalization analysis, 2006-12 75
Geographic analysis, 2006-12 81
Molecule type analysis, 2006-12 85
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 90
Key findings 90
Overview 91
Women's health 92
NuvaRing 92
Overview 92
Sales forecast 93
News flow 94
Competitive landscape 95
Another strong year for Organon's number one growth driver 95
Promotional drive remains key factor in NuvaRing's uptake 95
Contraceptive market overview 96
Future market assessment 100
Puregon 101
Overview 101
Sales forecast 102
News flow 102
Competitive landscape 103
Current market assessment 103
Future market assessment 105
Implanon 107
Overview 107
Sales forecast 108
News flow 108
Competitive landscape 108
Current market assessment 109
Future market assessment 111
NOMAC/E2 112
Overview 112
Sales forecast 113
News flow 114
Competitive landscape 114
Future market assessment 115
Org 32686 117
Overview 117
Sales forecast 118
News flow 119
Competitive landscape 120
Future market assessment 120
CNS 122
Asenapine 122
Overview 122
Sales forecast 123
News flow 123
Competitive landscape 124
Future market assessment 126
Sugammadex 127
Overview 127
Sales forecast 128
News flow 129
Competitive landscape 129
Clinical trial progression 130
Future market assessment 131
Remeron 133
Overview 133
Sales forecast 134
News flow 134
Competitive landscape 135
Current market assessment 135
Future market assessment 137
Org 50081 (insomnia) 138
Overview 138
Sales forecast 139
News flow 139
Clinical trial progression 140
Current market assessment 141
Future market assessment 141
Esmeron/Zemuron 143
Overview 143
Sales forecast 144
News flow 144
Competitive landscape 145
Current market assessment 145
Future market assessment 146
R&D pipeline 147
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 148
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 148
References 150
Abbreviations 151
Exchange rates 152
List of Tables
Table 1: Organon Biosciences Executive Committee 31
Table 2: Peer set overview 34
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 39
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 41
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 45
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 55
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 63
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 66
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 68
Table 10: Externally developed portfolio ($m), 2006-12 75
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 85
Table 12: Key products overview 91
Table 13: NuvaRing: overview 92
Table 14: NuvaRing: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 93
Table 15: NuvaRing: news flow 94
Table 16: Organon's non-DTC marketing expenditure in 2006 96
Table 17: Top 10 contraceptive products in 2006 (7MM) 97
Table 18: Puregon/Follistim: overview 101
Table 19: Puregon/Follistim: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 102
Table 20: Puregon/Follistim: news flow 102
Table 21: Implanon: overview 107
Table 22: Implanon: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 108
Table 23: Implanon: news flow 108
Table 24: NOMAC/E2: overview 112
Table 25: NOMAC/E2: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 113
Table 26: NOMAC/E2: news flow 114
Table 27: Org 32686: overview 117
Table 28: Org 32686: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 118
Table 29: Org 32686: news flow 119
Table 30: Asenapine: overview 122
Table 31: Asenapine: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 123
Table 32: Asenapine: news flow 123
Table 33: Sugammadex: overview 127
Table 34: Sugammadex: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 128
Table 35: Sugammadex: news flow 129
Table 36: Remeron: overview 133
Table 37: Remeron: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 134
Table 38: Remeron: news flow 134
Table 39: Org 50081 (insomnia): overview 138
Table 40: Org 50081 (insomnia): sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 139
Table 41: Org 50081 (insomnia): news flow 139
Table 42: Esmeron: overview 143
Table 43: Esmeron/Zemuron: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 144
Table 44: Esmeron/Zemuron: news flow 144
Table 45: Organon's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 147
Table 46: Exchange rates, 2006 152
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Organon and Mid Pharma peer set 3
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Mid Pharma peer set (%), 2006 6
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Organon 8
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 9
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2006 10
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2012 11
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Organon 14
Figure 8: M&A/divestment history 28
Figure 9: Current corporate structure 30
Figure 10: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2001-06 33
Figure 11: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2001-06 35
Figure 12: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2001-06 36
Figure 13: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 40
Figure 14: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 42
Figure 15: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2006-12 44
Figure 16: Top five products by sales ($m), 2006 46
Figure 17: Top five products by sales ($m), 2012 48
Figure 18: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2006-12 49
Figure 19: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2006-12 54
Figure 20: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 56
Figure 21: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2006-12 57
Figure 22: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2006-12 59
Figure 23: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2006 60
Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2012 61
Figure 25: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 64
Figure 26: Core products sales growth ($m), 2006-12 67
Figure 27: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 70
Figure 28: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2006-12 71
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Organon 72
Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 73
Figure 31: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2006-12 77
Figure 32: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2006-12 78
Figure 33: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 79
Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 80
Figure 35: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 81
Figure 36: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2006-12 82
Figure 37: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 83
Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 84
Figure 39: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 86
Figure 40: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2006-12 87
Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 88
Figure 42: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 89
Figure 43: Quarterly sales of top five contraceptives over 2006 ($m) 99
Figure 44: Puregon vs. Gonal-F, quarterly sales ($m), 2003-06 104
Figure 45: US mirtazapine sales ($m), 2002-06 136
Figure 46: 6MM mirtazapine sales ($m), 2002-06 137
Figure 47: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2006 149
Figure 48: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2006-12 150