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Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

After an extremely poor first-half of the year, we are now forecasting the Nigerian construction sector will see a recession in 2016. Despite the relaxation of the naira peg, investors are remaining on the sidelines. Furthermore, renewed violence in the Delta region is exacerbating the government's struggle in raising adequate revenue to undertake the major infrastructure it planned in its 2016 budget. Chinese credit will be a key lifeline for growth, although will not benefit the whole industry.


Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We forecast -2.6% y-o-y real growth in Nigeria's construction sector over 2016, with growth only marginally set to recover in 2017 at 3.2%. The private sector remains on the sidelines in terms of investment and the government is suffering from reduced revenues making their expansive budget unrealistic. China has continued to sign major infrastructure deals which will support growth going forwards.

- We expect the transport sector to outperform, given the Chinese credit line and the dominant position Chinese firms have in developing major projects in the sector. The 2016 federal budget also had a large focus on transport, although we note government financed projects are more susceptible to delays.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Nigeria 2016-2022) 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Nigeria 2016-2016) 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 17
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 18
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 18
Table: Key Projects: Transport 26
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 27
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 27
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities 34
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 35
Industry Forecast Scenario 35
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview 36
Table: Key Projects: Construction And Social Infrastructure 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Nigeria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 43
Rewards 43
Risks 44
SSA Infrastructure RRI: Volatile Markets Highlight Regional Risks 45
Table: SSA RRI 53
Market Overview 54
Competitive Landscape 54
Table: Equities 61
Company Profile 62
Julius Berger Nigeria Plc 62
Setraco Nigeria Limited 64
Methodology 66
Industry Forecast Methodology 66
Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q4 2016$$
Sector-Specific Methodology 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Sector-Specific Methodology 72
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

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