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South Africa Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We have made a downward revision to our historical data and forecast for the handset market value in South Africa, to reflect lower household income data from our Retail team as well as newly sourced trade data for handsets and components. We nevertheless retain our view that the handset market will outperform, as the depreciation of the rand over 2013-2016 has squeezed demand for higher value PC and AV devices. Our Country Risk team expects the rand to stabilise from 2017, which will allow rising demand for smartphones, tablets, supported by an increasing supply of low-cost devices, as well as previously deferred PC purchases, to drive a return to growth in US dollar terms.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments

- Following a downgrade to our handset market value data, we now forecast the total value of the consumer electronics market to reach USD5.72bn in 2016, compared to our previous forecast of USD6.4bn.

- Computer Sales: USD1.67bn in 2016 to USD1.92bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.1%. This is a slight upgrade due to the rand's recovery from multi-year lows in early 2016, but a return to sharp currency depreciation poses downside risks.

- AV Sales: USD941mn in 2016 to USD984mn in 2020, a CAGR of 0.3%. Digital camera demand cannibalisation will continue to be a drag on growth, while the TV set market has a mixed outlook due to considerable scope for upgrades, but also intensifying price competition.

- Handset Sales: USD3.11bn in 2016 to USD3.28bn in 2020, a CAGR of 1.5%. Handset spending growth forecast to slow as smartphone prices continue to fall and market saturation approaches, but it will continue to outperform and remain the largest segment of the South African consumer electronics market over 2016-2020.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Recent Developments 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (South Africa 2014-2020) 17
Industry Risk Reward Index 18
Table: Middle East And Africa Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 21
Market Overview 22
Computers 22
Table: PC Sales (South Africa 2014-2020) 22
AV Devices 28
Table: AV Sales (South Africa 2014-2020) 28
Mobile Handsets 34
Table: Mobile Communications (South Africa 2014-2020) 34
Industry Trends And Developments 42
Table: Africa Consumer Electronics Trade, 2010-2015 42
Table: South Africa Consumer Electronics (CE) Trade, 2010-2015 43
Regulatory Development 47
Table: Regulatory Authority 47
Table: National Broadband Policy Targets 48
Competitive Landscape 49
South Africa Consumer Electronics Companies 49
Consumer Electronics Vendors - EMEA, 2015 53
Table: Computer Hardware 53
Table: TV Sets 53
Table: Mobile Handsets 54
Retailers 54
Table: Major Electronics Retailers 54
Table: E-commerce And Online Retailers 55
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 59
South Africa Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2016$$
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology 62
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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