Children%s Publishing Market Forecast 2013

  • October 2012
  • -
  • Simba Information
  • -
  • 196 pages

Now in its seventh edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 adds even more value as a critical research tool by exploring a much-discussed but little-understood side of the market: children’s e-books. In a pair of nationally representative surveys administered in February and August in 2012 that you just can’t get anywhere else, Simba answers the pressing questions pertaining to this segment: What percentage of adults buy children’s and YA books, and in what format are they buying them? How do e-book buyers and iPad owners view the intersection between children and reading, and what extent do they buy digital children’s books? And finally, how many are buying children’s and YA print and e-books to read for themselves?



With more than three decades worth of wisdom pertaining to the children’s and YA market, Simba examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens, as well as an in-depth look at format trends. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.



This exclusive statistics and analysis in this report include:
  • Proprietary data on children’s e-book adoption levels, as well as exclusive e-book user and iPad owner trend data.

  • Analysis of the bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.

  • Exhaustive demographic review of adult buyers of children’s/YA books

  • Multi-year results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country, which rate different books and genres as well as profiling buyer and retail trends.

  • Category trends for 15 major juvenile categories with five or more years of data.

  • Projections on the children’s/YA market size through 2014


Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 also includes profiles of bestseller performance and financial estimates for companies such as Candlewick Press, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.



This report is the tool to truly understand where the children’s/YA book market truly stands in today’s world of shifting consumer tastes and increased digital book adoption, as well as understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, benchmarking performance, planning short- and long-term growth strategies, and anticipating what comes next.

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary




Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s/YA Book Market and Buyer Demographics

Introduction

Who Are the Buyers?

Children’s Book Buyer Demographics

Gender-Table 1.10

Race-Table 1.11 16

Age Bracket-Table 1.12

Education Level-Table 1.13

Household Income-Table 1.14

Employment Status-Table 1.15

Region-Table 1.16 18

Kind of Residence-Table 1.17

Marital Status-Table 1.18

Number of Children in Household-Table 1.19

Age of Children in Household-Table 1.20 19

Vertical Demographic Overview-Table 1.21




Table 1.1: How Common are the Following Children’s/YA Book Buyers?

Table 1.2: When Parent(s) or Adults are Buying a Children’s/YA Book, who is it usually?

Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.8: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.10: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store

Table 1.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race

Table 1.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket

Table 1.13: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level

Table 1.14: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income

Table 1.15: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status

Table 1.16: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Region

Table 1.17: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book Buyers by Kind of Residence

Table 1.18: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Children’s Consumers by Marital Status

Table 1.19: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book Buyers by Household Children Population

Table 1.20: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household

Table 1.21: Children’s Book Buyers: Key Statistics and Demographics




Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s/YA Book Publishing

Introduction

Children’s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: Revenue Trends

Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less

Trends in Children’s/YA E-Book Adoption

The Value of Series

Success Still Consolidated

Trade Paperback Still The Leading Format

TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important

Retailer and ‘Intermediaries’ Relationships and Influence Changing

Teen Book Market Cooling Slightly; Tween Books Rise




Table 2.1: Growth Trends in Juvenile Trade, Adult Trade and E-Books

Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2012 vs. 2011

Table 2.3: 4th Graders (9-10-year-olds) Reading habits (2002-2011)

Table 2.4: 8th Graders (13-14-year-olds) Reading habits (2002-2011)

Table 2.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Group (2010-2012)

Table 2.6: Print and Digital Children’s Book Purchases (February 2012)

Table 2.7: Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (February 2012)

Table 2.8: Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (All Adults, E-Book Users and iPad Owners) Any Agree, 2012

Table 2.9: Print and Digital Children’s Book Purchases: All Adults (August 2012)

Table 2.10: Print and Digital Children’s Book Purchases: iPad Owners and E-Book Users (August 2012)

Table 2.11: Why Did you Buy a Children’s YA/Print Book? (August 2012)

Table 2.12: Digital: Why Did You Buy A Children’s/YA Digital Title? (August 2012)

Table 2.13: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009

Table 2.14: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010

Table 2.15: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011

Table 2.16: Top NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012

Table 2.17: Average Bestselling Titles per Author (2008-2012)

Table 2.18: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particular Strong Performer in the First Half of 2008-2012?

Table 2.19: Top Ten Trade Categories (2007-2011)

Table 2.20: How Would you Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?

Table 2.21: Children’s Titles by Age Range on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)

Table 2.22: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business is Trending?




Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

Introduction

New York Times Series Bestsellers

USA Today Bestsellers

Bestselling Books, Authors, Imprints and Categories

Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists

New Titles

Bestselling Authors

Leading Imprints

Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title




Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT and USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2012

Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.4: Top 20 New York Times Series Imprints, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.8: Top 20 NYT and USA Today Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.9: Top 20 NYT and USA Today Authors, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.10: Top 20 NYT and USA Today Imprints, July 2011-June 2012

Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison

July 2010-June 2012

Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2011-June 2012




Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Introduction

Leading Children’s Publishers

Candlewick

Disney Publishing Worldwide

Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers

HarperCollins

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Macmillan

Penguin Group (USA)

Random House

Scholastic

Simon and Schuster

Size of the Children’s Publishing Market

Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue

Forecast for Balance of 2012 and Beyond

January-April Comparisons (2012-2011)




Table 4.1: Scholastic Revenue, FY 2001-2012

Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2010-2014P

Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2009-2014P

Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales

Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns




Chapter 5: Category Trends

Introduction

The Top Categories

USA Today Bestseller Data

Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released

Children’s/YA Category Analysis

Action and Adventure

Animals

Family and Relationships

Fantasy

Graphic Novel

History

Horror

Horror and Ghost

Humor

People and Places

Religion

Schools and Education

Science Fiction

Social Issues

Social Science




Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009

Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010

Table 5.3: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011

Table 5.4: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012

Table 5.5: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010

Table 5.6: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011

Table 5.7: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012

Table 5.8: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2007-2011

Table 5.9: Select Category Ratings, Seven-Year Overview

Table 5.10: Action and Adventure Bestseller Performance

Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Action and Adventure

Table 5.12: Animals Bestseller Performance

Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Animals

Table 5.14: Family and Relationships Bestseller Performance

Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Family and Relationships

Table 5.16: Fantasy Bestseller Performance

Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - Fantasy

Table 5.18: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance

Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel

Table 5.20: History Bestseller Performance

Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - History

Table 5.22: Horror Bestseller Performance

Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Horror

Table 5.24: Horror and Ghost Bestseller Performance

Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - Horror and Ghost

Table 5.26: Humor Bestseller Performance

Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - Humor

Table 5.28: People and Places Bestseller Performance

Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - People and Places

Table 5.30: Religion Bestseller Performance

Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Religion

Table 5.32: Schools and Education Bestseller Performance

Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Schools and Education

Table 5.34: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance

Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction

Table 5.36: Social Issues Bestseller Performance

Table 5.37: Vital Statistics - Social Issues

Table 5.38: Social Science Bestseller Performance

Table 5.39: Vital Statistics - Social Science




Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Introduction

Where Books Are Being Purchased

Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing

Barnes and Noble

Books-A-Million

Operating Performance at the Big Two Chains

Superstores and Small Format Store Closings

Online Bookselling

Amazon.com

Barnes and Noble and Books-A-Million

Channel Breakdown for All Book Buyers vs. Children’s Book Buyers

Attitudes and Opinions about Shopping Among Children’s Book Buyers




Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends

Table 6.2: Number of Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box

Table 6.3: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2012

Table 6.4: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2007-2011

Table 6.5: Books-A-Million Revenue Allocation (2012-2011)

Table 6.6: Bookstore Chains’ Operating Performance, 2007-2012

Table 6.7: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2007-2012

Table 6.8: Bookstore Chains’ Operating Performance, 2007-2012

Table 6.9: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2007-2011

Table 6.10: Amazon’s Media Sales vs. Electronic Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales, Q12007-Q12012

Table 6.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer

Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer

Table 6.13: Overview of U.S. Adults and Children’s Book Buyers: Attitudes and Opinions on Shopping (Any Agree)




Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Conclusions

Other Recommendations




Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits

Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2010-2014P




Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers

Candlewick Press

Disney Publishing Worldwide

Hachette Book Group

HarperCollins Publishers

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Macmillan

Penguin Group (USA)

Random House Inc.

Scholastic Corp.

Simon and Schuster Inc.

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