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Global new housing demand to rise 3% annually through 2014
The global recession of 2009 dealt a severe blow to housing markets in much of the world, most noticeably in the industrialized countries. New housing construction dropped so sharply in North America, Western Europe and Japan that those countries are expected to enjoy the fastest growth in housing construction through 2014. Despite rapid recovery rates in these areas, the level of new housing activity in 2014 will generally remain below that of a decade earlier. Worldwide, demand for new housing through 2014 is projected to advance 3.0 percent per annum, generating the construction of 53 million new housing units. Among the developing regions, the most rapid growth in new housing units will be in the Africa/Mideast region. Growth in population and household formation will support 3.9 percent annual growth in new housing construction through 2014 to eleven million units, although a significant share of the new housing built in sub-Saharan Africa will merely satisfy basic needs for shelter.
Most new housing units to be in Asia/Pacific region
The largest number of new housing units will be generated in the Asia/Pacific region, where an expected rise in new housing construction of 2.0 percent per annum will result in 31.7 million new units. That pace represents a deceleration from the 2004-2009 experience, primarily because of tepid growth of just one-half of one percent annually in the large Chinese market. Slowing population growth and a relatively high base of new construction following gains in the 1999- 2009 period will temper gains in new housing construction through 2014 in China. Although new housing construction in China will grow much more slowly than the global average, total new Chinese units will still exceed onequarter of the world total in 2014.
Global housing stock to rise 1.8% annually
The world housing stock was 1.9 billion units in 2009, roughly two percent larger than the number of households. The Asia/ Pacific region had the largest housing stock, with its nearly one billion units accounting for 52 percent of the world total; China alone represented 23 percent of the world total. The Africa/Mideast region had the second largest housing stock in 2009, with 292 million units, or 15 percent of the world total. In the aggregate, Western Europe and North America together accounted for just under one-fifth of the housing stock. The world stock of housing is forecast to rise 1.8 percent annually through 2014 to nearly 2.1 billion units. Growth in the housing stock will be slower than during the period from 1999 to 2009, in line with a deceleration in new household formation. The most rapid increases in the housing stock will be in the Africa/ Mideast region, where population growth will be well in excess of the global average. Gains will be driven both by new household formation and by efforts to expand the availability of housing for families who currently share space in one house. Central and South America will also record housing stock growth in excess of the world average, with increases of 2.1 percent per year through 2014 to 141 million units. While the Asia/ Pacific region will retain its position as the leader in housing stock, annual growth will be slightly below the world average, with a deceleration in housing construction in China moderating housing stock growth in the region.
This new industry study, World Housing presents historical data on new housing and housing stock (1999, 2004 and 2009) plus forecasts for 2014 and 2019 by type, world region and major national market. The study also considers the effects of market environment trends and indicators on world housing demand.
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