3Q.2011 Global Mobile Payment Market Forecast 2009 – 2015: Global mobile payments users to hit 893 million in 2015 with $945 billion in transaction value

  • October 2011
  • -
  • IE Market Research Corp.

Summary

Table of Contents

IEMR’s Global Mobile Payment Market Forecast covers annual forecasts of mobile payment users; mobile payment transactions by technology (such as NFC, SMS, WAP, USSD); and mobile payment transactions by type of purchase (such as merchandise, digital products, ticketing, mobile money transfers, bill payments, and pre-paid top-ups). The report is based on IEMR’s Global Consumer Telecommunications Survey-- which covers 50,000 mobile users in 50 markets globally— and is the most extensive country-specific forecasts of its kind.

To this comprehensive forecast, we are adding a PowerPoint presentation and an audio conference with Menekse Gencer, Independent Contributing Analyst at IEMR, Principal at mPay Connect and formerly Director of Business Development, Mobile Payments at PayPal. The presentation and the audio conference provide our clients with an overview of key trends in the global mobile payment market and an overview of exciting developments in the m-payments market globally.

This report will be useful to:

• Strategists and analysts at mobile phone operators and banks/credit card companies responsible for mobile payment strategy development and business analytics
• Developers of mobile payment systems at handset manufacturers
• Device manufacturers in all areas of the telecommunications market that need strategy recommendations on key trends in the global mobile payment industry
• Financial analysts and portfolio managers covering firms in the mobile payment market
• Consultants advising their clients on mobile payment markets
• Researchers who need to gain a better understanding of the global mobile payment market


Executive Summary

Global Mobile Payments transactions to rise to $1.13 trillion in 2014, a CAGR of 94.8%
Mobile payments continued its stellar growth in 2009 with the total number of users increasing to 351.4 million

- Globally, we are expecting the number of mobile payment users to rise to 1.06 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 20.5%.
- On the transaction value side, the gross value of mobile payments transactions was $37.4 billion in 2009. We expect mainstream take-up of mobile payments to happen in the 2011 – 2013 time frame. Our forecast is that in 2014, the gross value of mobile payment transactions will reach $1.13 trillion.

SMS accounted for 76.4% of mobile payment transactions in 2009. This is expected to decline to 58.7% in 2014
Ease of use, ubiquity, and minimal network investments means that SMS will continue to be the transaction technology of choice for mobile operators and users

- Globally, SMS will continue to dominate how customers pay with their mobile devices. Three-quarters of all mobile payments happened through SMS in 2009. We expect the relative share of SMS mobile transactions to decline to 58.7% in 2014.
- SMS is the most often used technology because of its ease of use and ubiquity. The major advantage of SMS is that it does not require investments in mobile networks or user devices and can be implemented in a short period of time.

NFC accounted for 14.9% of mobile payment transactions in 2009. This is expected to increase to 32.8% in 2014
NFC to see take-up in Western Europe and North America with volume shipments of NFC phones in 2011 and contactless infrastructure deployments in the 2009 – 2011 period

- In 2009, there were 861 million NFC transactions globally. We expect this to rise to 35.6 billion transactions in 2014, for a CAGR of 106.4%.
- The key constraint to NFC take-up is the lack of NFC phones and contactless infrastructure outside of key markets such as Japan. We expect NFC phones to appear in volume shipments in 2011. We also expect initial NFC transactions to be centered around public transportation and other ticketing POS transactions.
- While the NFC Forum has selected the single-wire protocol as the phone standard for communication between the NFC chip and the SIM card, we think that, as in all things mobile, there will be fragmentation in standards, depending on the business requirement. This is likely to slow down the take-up of NFC in different markets.

WAP / Browser-based payments and USSD will see only limited use in the next five years
Relative share of WAP / Browser-based payments and USSD to remain the same at about 6% and 2.5%, respectively

- Browser-based payments using WAP, HTML or XML saw increasing volumes in 2009. While we expect usage of these technologies to rise at a faster pace than SMS (their CAGR in terms of volumes is 80.6%), there are a number of key constraints impeding better adoption of these technologies.
- From our Global Consumer Telecommunications Survey, we find that many users still perceive mobile internet as more expensive and are concerned about data charges. Also, in our view, the user interface when migrating on-line payment models onto mobile devices does not work very well.
- For USSD, because it uses the signaling channel of GSM networks, our interviews with operators suggest that they either will have to increase network capacity or dimension the network when transaction volumes reach system limits. Another constraint of USSD is weak data encryption capability.

Merchandise Purchases using Mobile Payments to reach $224.4 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 95.7%
Merchandise purchases using mobile payments were $7.4 billion in 2009

- IEMR’s user surveys show that the average transaction value of merchandise purchases globally was about $12.84 per transactions with 576 million transactions for physical goods happening in 2009. We expect the gross value of merchandise purchases using mobile payments to reach $224.4 billion in 2014 with average transactions reaching $17.43, as consumers develop a comfort level for mobile transactions.
- In our view, the key impediment to merchandise purchases (physical goods) is that it requires an extensive merchant network with pre-registration of the user’s bank accounts or credit cards with the “made for mobile” service. That is why we think that merchandise purchase growth will closely track overall growth in mobile payments globally.

Prepaid Top-ups using Mobile Payments to reach $286.4 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 76.7%
Prepaid Top-ups will see traction over the next five years

- IEMR’s user surveys suggest that top-ups for prepaid services such as mobile, fixed line, internet/broadband services and top-ups for other services such as gaming, utility payments, or gift cards will be extremely popular with consumers globally.
- While the gross value of prepaid top-ups in 2009 was only $15 billion, we expect strong growth for this segment with gross value of total transactions to reach $286.4 billion in 2014.
- We think that prepaid top-ups will be extremely popular in developing markets because they allow for small-denominated and frequent transactions that fit the needs of cash-starved societies.
- We also think that prepaid top-ups benefit mobile operators since top-up transactions help them lower distribution costs (they do not need to go to a store to purchase a top-up).

Mobile Money Transfers to reach $148.5 billion in 2014
Mobile Money Transfers to reach $148.5 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 86.2%

- There has been much talk about how money transfers are going to change the future of mobile payments with a great degree of variation among analyst firms and industry associations of the size of this segment of the market.
- IEMR’s user surveys suggest that there is still some reluctance among consumers to use mobile devices to engage in MMT-type transactions. In our view, most MMT-type transactions are not going to be Mobile-To-Mobile transactions, but rather Mobile-to-Cash transactions which will still require physical agents and banks to deliver the cash. Also, typical recipients of cash are older parents and relatives of senders both for domestic and international P2P transactions.
- While adoption will continue to be strong over the next five years, we see considerable variation in different markets. In our view, markets where operators are at the centre of the ecosystem (such as China) will likely see a faster take up than markets where banks are running the mobile payment platforms.

Regional Overview

North American Mobile Payments to rise to $288.4 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 98.7%
North America (Canada and United States) will account for 25% of the world market share for Mobile Payments by Gross Transaction Values

- We see the biggest growth in North America coming from ticketing (CAGR of 138%) and digital purchases (CAGR of 120%).
- The introduction of various devices by Apple has changed the game on consumer acceptance of digital purchases using mobile devices, especially in North America. Our usage surveys suggest that consumers are increasingly comfortable with the use of the mobile device as a payment tool.
- While NFC transactions in North America will grow faster than in Europe or Asia-Pacific, our usage surveys suggest that the level of acceptance for these is fairly low in North America. The number of NFC transactions in Western Europe was 17.4x higher than in North America.

Mobile Payments in Western Europe to rise to $350.4 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 91.3%
Cautious attitude towards mobile will prevail, but NFC, ticketing, and digital purchases will see some traction
- As in North America, the biggest growth in Western Europe will be coming from ticketing (CAGR of 134%) and digital purchases (CAGR of 116%).
- Our user surveys show that most consumers are very cautious about how they bank and have easy access to bank branches and don’t view mobile banking as a necessity.
- NFC will see take-up in Western Europe. Over the last three years, there have been several deployments of NFC payments using mobile devices, primarily focusing on travel and public transport payments due to current contactless infrastructure already in place in many European public transportation authorities.

Mobile Payments in Asia Pacific to rise to $316 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 94.1%
Mobile Payment Transaction Values in Asia Pacific to reach $316 billion in 2014

- Asia Pacific will see strong growth, both in terms of transaction values and user cases. We expect that in 2014, there will be 622 million mobile payments users in the Asia Pacific region with over 62 billion user cases.
- Gross Value of Transactions in Asia Pacific will reach $316 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 94.1%.
- The market is quite diverse in terms of what is transacted. Although prepaid top-ups will continue to be the largest category, we expect that its share of total transactions (in terms of transaction value) will decline from 40% in 2009 to 25% in 2014.
- Money transfer is another large mobile payment category in the Asia Pacific due to the large number of migrant workers both within countries and internationally (such as China, India, Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc.)

Mobile Payments in Eastern Europe to rise to $49 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 91.7%
Mobile Payment Transaction Values in Eastern Europe to reach $49 billion in 2014

- We expect that in 2014, there will be 49.5 million mobile payment users in Eastern Europe with over 6 billion user cases.
- Gross Value of Transactions in Eastern Europe will reach $49 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 91.7%.
- Prepaid top-ups continue to have the highest share of gross transaction value with estimated transaction value of $12.3 billion in 2014.
- However, it is ticketing that will see the highest growth rate over the next five years. We expect that transaction value of ticketing in Eastern Europe will reach $7.3 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 134.4%. The average transaction size for ticketing will rise from $2.95 in 2009 to $6.70 in 2014.
- In Eastern Europe, most operators will focus on using the mobile phone balance on small purchases such as parking and digital content. Most of these services are SMS or STK based.

Mobile Payments in South and Central America to rise to $51.8 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 101.4%
Mobile Payment Transaction Values in South and Central America to reach $51.8 billion in 2014

- We are estimating that in 2014, there will be 75.3 million mobile payments users in South and Central America with over 8.4 billion user cases.
- Gross Value of Transactions in South and Central America will rise to $51.8 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 101.4%.
- We think that merchandise purchases will replace prepaid top-ups as the largest mobile payment segment in 2014. We expect that transaction value in merchandise purchases will rise from $298 million in 2009 to $13 billion in 2014.
- Mobile payments in Latin America are focused on food and ticket purchases. For example, Tigo Cash in Paraguay offers mobile wallets which can be used to transfer money, top up airtime and pay for products at Pizza Hut, Burger King, etc. The service had 150,000 customers by end-2008 within six months of launch.

Mobile Payments in Middle East and Africa to rise to $75.7 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 99.2%
Mobile Payment Transaction Values in Middle East and Africa to reach $75.7 billion in 2014

- We expect that the number of mobile payment users in Middle East and Africa will increase from 53.3 million in 2009 to 171.2 million in 2014. The average transaction size will rise rapidly over the next five years, and we forecast that gross transaction value in the region will reach $75.7 billion in 2014.
- Although SMS will continue to be the most prevalent technology for mobile payment, the number of transactions using NFC will be growing over the next several years. We expect that there will be 5.8 billion NFC mobile payment transactions in 2014.
- As the chart shows, prepaid top-ups will continue to be the largest mobile payment segment in Middle East and Africa. Transaction value of prepaid top-ups will rise to $19.8 billion in 2014.
- However, it is ticketing that will see the highest growth in transaction value over the coming years. We expect that it will grow from only $116.6 million in 2009 to $11.8 billion in 2014 (CAGR of 144.5%).


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