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Peru Mining Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Peru's mining industry will be a regional growth outperformer, supported by a strong copper project pipeline, low operating costs and a favourable business environment over the coming years. Latest Updates & Structural Trends

- Peru's extractive industry will experience significant growth over our forecast period to 2020. We expect the sector's value to climb from USD22.3bn in 2016 to USD31.3bn by 2020, averaging 8.4% annual growth. In particular, we expect copper to outperform in terms of production growth due to a strong project pipeline and continued investment. Silver and gold will also benefit from a number of key projects and improving precious metals prices, while tin and zinc output posts slower growth. The country will remain a top global producer of each of these minerals.

- Peru's copper production continues to outpace expectations, prompting another increase to our growth forecast. We now expect the country's copper production to increase by 38.0% to 2.2 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016, from the previous forecast of 18.0% growth. Projects including MMG's Las Bambas, Freeport McMoRan's Cerro Verde expansion, and Hudbay Minerals' ramp up at the Constancia mine will continue to drive growth over the next few quarters, helping Peru overtake China as the world's second largest copper producer by the end of the year.

Table Of Contents

Peru Mining Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Peru Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Copper: On Track To Be Second Largest Global Producer 10
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 10
Table: Peru - Key Copper Projects 10
Structural Trends 11
Gold: Improving Prices To Support Growth 15
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 15
Table: Peru - Key Gold Projects 16
Structural Trends 16
Hochschild and Buenaventura To Dominate Sector 17
Protests To Continue Against The Sector 19
Lead: Output To Edge Higher 20
Table: Lead Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 20
Table: Peru - Key Lead Projects 20
Structural Trends 21
Silver: High Ore Grades Boost Production 23
Table: Silver Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Peru - Key Silver Projects 25
Tin: Production To Stagnate 26
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 26
Minsur To Scale Back Investment 27
Zinc: Improving Prices To Pose Upside Risk 29
Latest Developments 29
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020) 29
Table: Peru - Key Zinc Projects 30
Structural Trends 30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 33
Peru Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Industry Rewards 33
Country Rewards 33
Risks 33
Industry Risks 33
Country Risks 34
Americas: Risk/Reward Index 35
Key Takeaways 35
Latest Revisions 36
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index 36
Regulatory Development 38
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 38
Commodities Forecast 42
Commodities Outlook 42
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 42
Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Peru - Largest Listed Mining Firms Financial Data, 2015 45
Company Profile 46
Buenaventura - Q4 2016 46
Latest Results 48
Table: Cia de Minas Buenaventura - Key Financial Data 48
First Quantum - Q4 2016 48
Latest Results 51
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data 51
Global Company Strategy - Grupo Mexico - Q4 2016 53
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 54
Company Background 54
Company Strategy 57
Table: Grupo Mexico - Key Financial Data 58
Table: Copper - Operational Highlights, 2015 59
Regional Overview 60
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sources 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68

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