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  4. > Germany Power Report Q4 2016

Germany Power Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 88 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The outlook for conventional generation capacity in Germany remains bleak as the country pursues its energy transition - with utilities that have exposure to thermal assets likely to continue to be squeezed financially due to an influx of subsidised renewables capacity. A brief uptick in gas-fired generation in 2016 - due to lower European gas prices - is likely to be short-lived and we retain our view that coal will remain the dominant thermal generation fuel over our 10-year forecast period.


Latest Updates

- As a consequence of very low European gas prices, the short-term prospects for gas-fired power generation in Germany have improved significantly and profitability at many German gas-fired power plants has improved to the point where they are currently more profitable than coal-fired facilities. On the back of these improved pricing dynamics we have revised our forecast for growth in gas-fired generation in 2016 to 4.80% and to reflect fuel switching (from -4.2%).

- This revision doe not, however, reflect a change to our core views for the German market. We emphasise that this rebound in gas generation is unlikely to last heading into 2017. We believe that gas prices are likely to rebound from very low levels heading into the winter and our commodities team also expects global coal prices to fall back. This means that we expect coal-fired generation to remain more profitable than gas-fired generation over our 10-year forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Germany Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Germany 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Germany Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Germany 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Germany 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Germany Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 34
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 34
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 35
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 36
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 38
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 38
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 39
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 41
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 41
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 41
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk/Reward Index 42
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index 42
Germany Power Risk/Reward Index 47
Rewards 47
Risks 48
Market Overview 49
Key Policies And Market Structure 49
Regulation And Competition 49
Sustainable Energy Policies 50
Germany Power Projects Database 53
Table: Germany Major Projects - Power 53
Competitive Landscape 56
E ON/Uniper 56
RWE 57
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) 57
Vattenfall 57
Verbund 58
Germany Power Report Q4 2016$$
Company Profile 59
RWE 59
E ON/Uniper 65
Regional Overview 74
NAWE Power Key Themes 74
Glossary 82
Table: Glossary Of Terms 82
Methodology 83
Methodology And Sources 83
Industry Forecast Methodology 83
Sources 86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 86
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 88

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