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  4. > United Kingdom Power Report Q4 2016

United Kingdom Power Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 81 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The UK's decision to leave the EU has had little impact on our already-muted forecasts for theUK power sector. Our forecasts for conventional power generation were already downbeat due to a failureto mobilise investment into new capacity - with economic and political uncertainty following the Brexit voteonly serving to cement this prevailing view.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

- The material impact of Brexit on our power forecasts - at this stage - is minimal. We do not anticipatemajor changes to regulation or climate targets (although meeting them remains a different matter) andmaintain that electricity generation will grow by an annual average of just 0.3% between 2016 and 2025,with capacity growing by an annual average of 0.5% and consumption growing at 0.4%.

- We have left our forecasts for generation and capacity unchanged because they already reflect a failure tomobilise investment into conventional generation capacity, which will ensure supply margins remaintight over the next few years. With few conventional power projects moving out of planning and into theconstruction phase, we have long argued that it is unclear as to how the government would realise itsplans to draw GBP100bn into the power sector by the early 2020s - and Brexit has cemented this view.

- We still expect the UK to follow through with plans to close all remaining coal capacity by 2025 as mostremaining plans are about 50 years old and the best case for new nuclear capacity is it will be delayedfurther. In this environment, gas power generation remains the most viable alternative.

- A major downside risk to our forecast is that investment in the conventional power sector now collapsescompletely, planned cross-border transmission links could be delayed and capacity margins narrowfurther as ageing capacity is taken offline without being replaced. The UK may be left with no otheroption than to extend the lives of remaining coal plants in the absence of other alternatives - reneging onits plan to shut all coal facilities by 2025.

- The biggest upside is the new post-Brexit government, under the leadership of Prime Minister TheresaMay, may decide to pursue fiscal stimulus measures in order to show the UK is still open for businessand - with the government pushing ahead with flagship infrastructure projects such as Hinkley Point Cand a new fleet of gas power plants.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (United Kingdom 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
United Kingdom Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2015-2019) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 9
United Kingdom Power Forecast Scenario 10
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 10
Table: UK - Coal Capacity 21
Table: UK Planned Nuclear Projects 28
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 31
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 32
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 33
Electricity Consumption 33
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 34
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 35
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 35
Table: Planned Interconnections Will Boost Power Supply 37
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 37
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 38
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 38
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 38
Industry Risk/Reward Index 39
Europe - NAWE Power RRI: North America Eclipses Western Europe 39
United Kingdom Power Risk/Reward Index 45
Rewards 45
Risks 46
Market Overview 47
Key Policies And Market Structure 47
Regulation And Competition 47
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill 49
Sustainable Energy Policies 50
Pricing 51
United Kingdom Power Projects Database 52
Competitive Landscape 55
EDF Energy 55
National Grid 55
EON 56
RWE npower 56
SSE 57
Scottish Power 57
Centrica 57
Company Profile 59
EDF 59
Table: EDF's 2015 Key Financial Results 61
Table: France's Energy Transition Law - Main Provisions 64
Regional Overview 67
NAWE Power Key Themes 67
Glossary 75
Table: Glossary Of Terms 75
Methodology 76
Methodology And Sources 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Sources 79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 81

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