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  4. > United States Power Report Q4 2016

United States Power Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 86 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Growth in natural gas-fired capacity and renewables will be the pillars of the US power marketas a result of the availability of cheap natural gas and the extension of tax credits for wind and solar powerplants. Meanwhile, investment in power infrastructure will be necessary for the system to keep up withgrowth in intermittent renewables and distributed energy solutions. In the absence of support from publicfunding, nuclear power will struggle amid low wholesale power prices and growing competition with othertechnologies, leading to early reactor retirements.



Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- We have revised down our forecast for nuclear power capacity and generation through to 2025 as lowwholesale power prices, environmental regulations and lack of policy support for nuclear have promptedutilities to plan the retirement of unprofitable plants ahead of schedule or when licences expire. Our viewthat policy support would be the only upside to the nuclear power sector is also in play, as in August theNew York State Public Service Commission approved subsidies that will allow the state's strugglingnuclear plants to continue to operate.

- As we expect Hillary Clinton to be the next president of the US, we believe the country's energy policyover the next four years will align with the direction set by the Environmental Protection Agency's CleanPower Plan (CPP), regardless of whether the plan is eventually implemented. We believe a Clintonpresidency will not deviate from the Obama administration policy agenda on the environment and powersector, underpinning our upbeat long-term forecast for the US renewables sector.

- The US power transmission and distribution sector will offer sizeable business opportunities tocompanies across the spectrum of EPC providers, electric utilities and new market entrants targeting thesmart grid. Significant investment in power infrastructure will be necessary over the coming decade forthe US electric system to keep up with growth in intermittent renewable energy, DES and cybersecuritythreats. The Senate's Energy Policy Modernization Act (EPMA) takes important steps to facilitate publicand private investment in those critical areas. In July, the Senate voted with a large majority to moveforward with the EPMA and to enter formal negotiations for reconciling the EPMA with a more divisiveenergy bill approved by the House of Representatives in 2015.

Table Of Contents

United States Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (United States 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
United States Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United States 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United States 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
United States Power Forecast Scenario 12
Table: US Nuclear Reactors - Planned Retirements And Additions 19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 28
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 30
Transmission and Distribution 30
Table: Canada-US Power Transmission Lines Under Development 35
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 36
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 37
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index 37
United States Power Risk/Reward Ratings 43
Rewards 43
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Key Policies And Market Structure 45
Regulation And Competition 45
Table: Epma - Most Relevant Provisions For The Power Sector 46
Sustainable Energy Policies 47
Table: EPA's Clean Power Plan - Winners And Losers 48
Pricing 51
United States Power Projects Database 53
Competitive Landscape 56
Table: Pending And Completed Acquisition Deals 57
Pacific Gas And Electric Company (PGandE) 58
Southern California Edison (SCE) 58
Exelon 58
NextEra Energy (FPL And NextEra Energy Resources) 59
Southern Co 60
Dominion 60
American Electric Power 61
Mid-American/PacifiCorp 61
Xcel Energy 62
Duke Energy Corporation 62
Company Profile 63
Duke Energy 63
Table: Policy Scenarios Under Us Presidential Candidates 69
Latest Developments 70
Regional Overview 72
NAWE Power Key Themes 72
Glossary 80
Table: Glossary Of Terms 80
Methodology 81
Methodology And Sources 81
Industry Forecast Methodology 81
Sources 84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 84
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 85
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 86

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