The global wind turbine market experienced its first decline in over five years in 2010, dropping 15.9% to $42.3 billion as the pace of turbine installations in most countries slowed considerably. Total megawatts (MW) installed was down by 5.3% to 38,079 MW for 2010 and would have been much less if China had not taken a commanding lead in the market, installing almost half of all new global wind capacity during the year. The U.S., on the other hand, only installed half as much new capacity in 2010 as it did in 2009.


Despite continuing to be the largest wind turbine market for 2011, China's will no longer maintain its stratospheric growth in the market. China's wind turbine installations in 2011 will be 19,300 MW, just 2.0% more than in 2010. From a financial perspective the news is much worse, as still dropping turbine prices will force the Chinese wind turbine market down by 7.1% in 2011, a drop that will be only slightly recovered in 2012.


In the short term, curtailment of already installed wind systems because of inadequate transmission systems are going to be a large prohibitive factor against new wind developments in China and, to a lesser extent, in the U.S. and India. SBI Energy sees new wind turbine installations up by 12.0% in 2011 over 2010, but up only another 8.3% in 2012. In fact, it will not be until 2015 or 2016 that transmission issues in China are resolved sufficiently that the country will again achieve double digit growth in wind installations.


The U.S. continues to be the top import country for wind turbine generating sets in 2011, but the UK and Germany rose in ranking over Canada from 2010. Together these four countries account for just over half of all imports. Exports are typically dominated by Denmark and Germany, which together provide 60% of the world’s wind turbine generating set exports. However, total exports will be up significantly in 2011 to $5.9 billion as manufacturers in soft wind markets such as Germany and Spain aggressively expand to other regions. Despite its position as the number one regional market in 2010 and again in 2011, China’s wind turbine industry was almost entirely domestic and the country’s wind turbine manufacturers exported very little product.


The wind turbine market is still most heavily influenced by government subsidies and this will continue through the next decade. The support or neglect of governments for wind energy is the main driver behind SBI Energy's three different forecast scenarios in this report. In the median scenario the world wind turbine market is going to climb to $72.8 billion in 2015, with a world total of 442 GW installed. With only moderate government help, the world market is going to reach $138.8 billion in 2020 with a cumulative 876 GW of wind turbines installed world wide. However, with poor government support the 2020 wind turbine market could be as low as $66.6 billion, and with exceptional government support the market could reach up to $326.9 billion at the end of the decade.

Table Of Contents

Chapter 1 Executive Summary

The Global Wind Turbine Market

Figure 1-1 Wind Turbine Installations by Country by Year, 2006-2010 (in MW)

Wind Turbine Competitors

Figure 1-2 Market by Competitor, 2011 (in percent)

China

U.S.

India

Figure 1-3 Top Five Global Wind Turbine Market Countries, 2006-2010 (in billion $)

Germany

Spain

Wind Turbine Generating Set Imports and Exports

Figure 1-4 Exports of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2000-2020 (in billion $ and percent)

Wind Turbine Market Forecast

Figure 1-5 Global Cumulative Installed Wind Forecast, 2011-2020 (in GW)

China Forecast

U.S. Forecast

India Forecast

Figure 1-6 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast by Country, Median Scenario, 2011-2020 (in billion $)

Germany Forecast

Spain Forecast

Wind Turbine Market Trends

Figure 1-7 Key Drivers and Barriers Affecting the Wind Turbine Market

Wind Turbine Costs and Energy Prices

Table 1-1 Estimated Levelized Cost of New U.S. Generation Resources, 2016* (2009 $/megawatt-hour; MWh)

The Offshore Wind Turbine Market

Table 1-2 Cumulative Offshore Wind Installations by Geographical Region, 2006-2020 (in MW)

Curtailment Concerns

Wind Turbines: Bigger is Better

Figure 1-8 Average Size of Installed Wind Turbines, 2006-2011 (in kW)

Employment Trends

Table 1-3 Wind Industry Jobs by Country, 2010-2020

Financial Trends: FITs and Investments

Figure 1-9 Countries with Wind Feed in Tariffs, 2011

Small Turbine Trends

Chapter 2 Introduction

Scope

Methodology

A Note on Trade Codes and Import and Export Data

Table 2-1 Wind Turbine Import and Export HS Codes

Terminology

Wind Turbine Technology

Table 2-2 Turbine Component Weights and Costs (in percent)

Parts of a Nacelle Assembly

Figure 2-1 The parts of a Wind Turbine

Direct and Indirect Drives

Figure 2-2 A Direct Drive Wind Turbine

Table 2-3 Comparison of Direct and Indirect Wind Turbines

Onshore versus Offshore Wind Turbines

Wind Energy Associations Worldwide

Table 2-4 Wind Associations and Groups

Chapter 3 The Market

The Global Wind Turbine Market

Figure 3-1 Global Wind Turbine Capacity and Electricity Generated by Wind, 2006-2010 (in GW for capacity and billion kWh for generation)

Figure 3-2 Global Wind Market, 2006-2010 (in billion $ and GW Installed)

Asia is Chasing Europe for Regional Wind Lead

Table 3-1 Cumulative Wind Capacity by Geographical Region, 2006-2010 (in MW)

China Now Leads Wind Turbine Installations

Figure 3-3 Wind Turbine Installations by Country by Year, 2006-2010 (in MW)

Figure 3-4 Top Five Global Wind Turbine Market Countries, 2006-2010 (in billion $)

Offshore Becoming a Competitive Market

Table 3-2 Cumulative Offshore Wind Installations by Geographical Region, 2006-2010 (in MW)

Top National Markets

Figure 3-5 Top 10 Countries for Single Year Wind Installations and Cumulative Installs, 2010 (in percent)

China

Figure 3-6 China’s Wind Turbine Import, Export and Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)

Table 3-3 Top Chinese Provinces for Yearly and Cumulative Wind Installations, 2010 (in MW installed)

Figure 3-7 Total Wind Turbines by Province/Municipality, 2010 (in MW)

Table 3-4 China’s Onshore and Offshore Wind Installations by Year, 2006-2011 (in MW)

U.S.

Figure 3-8 U.S. Wind Turbine Import, Export and Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)

Table 3-5 Top U.S. Import and Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)

Figure 3-9 Total Wind Turbine Installations by State, 2010 (in MW)

Table 3-6 Top U.S. States for Yearly and Cumulative Wind Installations, 2010 (in MW installed)

India

Figure 3-10 India’s Wind Turbine Import, Export and Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)

Table 3-7 Top Indian Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)

Table 3-8 India’s Wind Installations by State, March 2007- March 2011 (in MW)

Germany

Figure 3-11 Germany’s Wind Turbine Import, Export and Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)

Table 3-9 Top German Import and Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)

Table 3-10 Germany’s Onshore and Offshore Wind Installations by Year, 2006-2011 (in MW)

Spain

Figure 3-12 Spain’s Wind Turbine Import, Export and Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)

Table 3-11 Top Spanish Import and Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)

Others

Table 3-12 Total Offshore Wind Capacity by Country, 2006-2011 (in MW)

Wind Turbine Generating Set Imports and Exports

Figure 3-13 Exports of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2000-2011 (in billion $ and percent)

Figure 3-14 YoY Change in Global Wind Turbine Exports and Wind Capacity Additions, 1998-2011 (in percent)

Top Wind Turbine Generating Set Trade Countries

Table 3-13 Top 10 Export Countries of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)

Table 3-14 Top 10 Import Countries of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)

Chapter 4 Market Trends

Global Use of Wind Energy

Figure 4-1 Global Use of Renewable Energy by Type, 2006-2010 (in billion kWh and percent)

Figure 4-2 Total Global Renewable Energy Capacity by Country, 2010 (in GW)

Drivers and Barriers for the Wind Turbine Market

Figure 4-3 Key Drivers and Barriers Affecting the Wind Turbine Market

Wind Energy Requirements Around the World

Table 4-1 Countries with Wind-Specific Energy Generation Requirements, 2010

China’s Current Five Year Energy Plan and the Seven Wind Bases

Table 4-2 China’s Wind Base Program, 2010-2020 (in MW)

Wind Turbine Costs and Energy Prices

Table 4-3 Wind Turbine Cost Structure (in percent)

Wind Turbine Manufacturing Costs

Figure 4-4 Average Wind Turbine Prices, 2000-2011 (in $/kW)

Figure 4-5 Producer Price Index for Turbines and Generator Sets, and Parts of Same, 2000-2011 (index)

Comparing Wind Energy Costs to Other Types of Electricity Generation

Table 4-4 Levelized Cost of Wind Energy and Financial Gap by Country, 2008 (in $/MWh)

Table 4-5 Estimated Levelized Cost of New U.S. Generation Resources, 2016* (2009 $/MWh)

Curtailment Concerns

Transmission and Connection Issues

Utilization Capacity of Wind Systems

Table 4-6 Capacity Factor by Type of Electricity Generation, 2008 (in percent)

Wind Energy Curtailment in China

Wind Energy Curtailment in the U.S.

Table 4-7 Wind Curtailment by Area, 2007-2010 (in GWh and % of potential wind generation)

Offshore Trends

Table 4-8 Typical Onshore and Offshore Wind Farm Characteristics, 2008

Figure 4-6 Cumulative Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations by Type, 2010 (in %)

Wind Turbines: Bigger is Better

Figure 4-7 Average Size of Installed Wind Turbines, 2006-2011 (in kW)

Towards the 20 MW Turbine

Figure 4-8 Largest Capacity Wind Turbine by Year, 1985-2009

Average Wind Turbines Size Will Continue to Grow

Employment Trends

Table 4-10 Wind Industry Jobs by Country, 2010-2020

Financial Trends

Wind FITs

Figure 4-9 Countries with Wind Feed in Tariffs, 2011

Non-FIT Government funding

Investments in the Wind Market

Table 4-11 Renewable and Wind Investments, 2004-2010 (in billion $)

Figure 4-10 Global Wind Investments, 2004-2011 (in thousand $/MW)

Research Trends

Wind Research Funding

Table 4-12 Government Wind Research Funding in Key Countries, 2006-2010 (in million $)

Key Research Focus Areas

Small Turbine Trends

Figure 4-11 Small Wind Turbine Installations for the U.S., UK and China, 2009-2011 (in cumulative number of systems installed and cumulative MW installed)

Hybrid Wind Systems

Chapter 5 Global Wind Turbine Forecast

A Note on the different Scenarios

Global Forecast

Figure 5-1 Global Cumulative Installed Wind Forecast, 2011-2020 (in GW)

Figure 5-2 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast, 2011-2020 (in billion $)

Wind Growth will be moderate in the short term

Figure 5-3 Cumulative Global Wind Forecast by Country, 2011-2015 (in GW)

Table 5-1 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast, 2011-2015 (in billion $)

The Wind Market’s Long Term Forecast

Figure 5-4 Global Wind Forecast by Country, 2016-2020 (in GW)

Table 5-2 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast, 2016-2020 (in billion $)

Figure 5-5 Key Geographic Wind Turbine Markets (Median Scenario), 2010, 2020 (in percent of market)

Pricing Forecast

Figure 5-6 Average Wind Turbine Prices Forecast, 2011-2020 (in $/kW)

Exports to Decline in Long Term

Figure 5-7 Export Forecast of Wind Turbine Generating Sets (Median Scenario), 2011-2020 (in billion $ and percent)

Offshore Forecast

Table 5-3 Total Offshore Wind Capacity by Country, 2010-2020 (in MW)

China Forecast

Figure 5-8 China Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)

Table 5-4 China Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)

U.S. Forecast

Figure 5-9 U.S. Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)

Table 5-5 U.S. Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)

India Forecast

Figure 5-10 India Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)

Table 5-6 India Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)

Germany Forecast

Figure 5-11 Germany Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)

Table 5-7 Germany Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)

Spain Forecast

Figure 5-12 Spain Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)

Table 5-8 Spain Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in MW)

Upcoming Countries

Table 5-9 Forecast of Other Major Wind Countries, 2010-2020

Chapter 6 Competitors

First Tier Competitors

Figure 6-1 Market by Competitor, 2011 (in percent)

Dongfang Electric Corporation

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-2 DEC’s Wind Revenue and Wind Turbines Produced, 2007-2011 (in million yuan and MW)

Products

New Developments

Enercon

Overview

Performance

Table 6-1 Enercon’s Cumulative Wind Turbine Installations by Country, November 2010 (in MW)

Products

Table 6-2 Enercon’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

Gamesa

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-3 Gamesa’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in million euros and MW)

Products

Table 6-3 Gamesa’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

General Electric

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-4 GE’s Energy Infrastructure Segment Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in billion $ and units shipped)

Products

Table 6-4 GE’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

Goldwind

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-5 Goldwind’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Installed, 2006-2011 (in million yuan and MW)

Products

Table 6-5 Goldwind’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

REpower

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-6 REpowers’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Installed, 2006-FY2011 (in million euros and MW)

Products

Table 6-6 REpower’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

Siemens

Performance

Figure 6-7 Siemens’ Renewables Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in million euros and MW)

Products

Table 6-7 Siemens’ Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

Sinovel

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-8 Sinovel’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Installed, 2008-2011 (in million yuan and MW)

Products

Table 6-8 Sinovel’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

Suzlon

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-9 Suzlon’s Consolidated Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2008-2011 (in billion rupees and MW)

Products

Table 6-9 Suzlon’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

Vestas

Overview

Performance

Figure 6-10 Vestas’ Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in million euros and MW)

Products

Table 6-10 Vestas’ Wind Turbine Products, 2011

New Developments

Second Tier Competitors

Clipper Windpower

Mingyang

Nordex

United Power

Appendix: Company Contact Information

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