1. Market Research
  2. > Transportation
  3. > Logistics and Freight Market Trends
  4. > France Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

France Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views
While the rest of the eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the French economy continues to lag behind the region. While the improving regional economic outlook may provide some limited upside potential, this might not be sufficient to drive a recovery in French manufacturing unless the country first addresses its outstanding
competitiveness issues. While we are likely to see a gradual increase in positive rhetoric towards structural reforms, Hollande is unlikely to become an ambitious reformer of the French model. While we expect some reformers will take baby steps in the right direction, the ability of Hollande to implement sweeping reforms will be restrained by divisions within his own party and core support base, and resistance from the proliferation of special interest groups which will make unilateral reform a troublesome and compromised process.

We expect pressures on the government to engage in more concerted fiscal consolidation to mount over the coming quarters, particularly as lower growth begins to translate into lower government revenues. While France has thus far not fallen prey to the bond vigilantes like the peripheral countries of the eurozone, the country nonetheless
has one of the largest public sector debt piles in Europe and remains susceptible to contagion effects.

Major Forecast Changes
We have downgraded our government budget forecasts for France and now expect the fiscal deficit to arrive at 4.5% of GDP in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015, from 4.0% and 3.7% previously.

Table Of Contents

France Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks To Outlook..5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis. 7
BMI Political Risk Index.. 7
Domestic Politics .. 8
Sarkozy's Return To Weaken Extreme-Right.8
The return of former President Nicolas Sarkozy will make the centre-right UMP a more coherent opposition force. This will pile further
pressure on the ailing Hollande administration, and reduce the growing influence of the extreme- right Front National.
Table: Political Overview8
Long-Term Political Outlook. 10
A Tumultuous Decade Could Lie Ahead10
We expect several dynamics to come to the forefront of France's political scene in the coming decade. These include France's role in
the world, economic reforms, the challenge of demographics and the potential resurgence of left-wing parties after years in the political
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook. 11
SWOT Analysis.. 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Activity 12
Further Stagnation Lies Ahead12
The French economy will fail to achieve meaningful growth over the coming quarters as all sectors of the economy begin to seize up
and t here is a growing risk that the French economy will remain stagnant - or worse - until the next presidential election in 2017.
Table: GDP By Expenditure12
Balance Of Payments. 14
Lack Of Reform Signals Enduring C/A Deficit14
France will continue to run a current account deficit over the coming quarters due to the country's inability to push through meaningful
economic reforms. This will ensure French exports remain uncompetitive.
Table: Current Account 14
Fiscal Policy. 16
Debt Load Set To Soar..16
France's effective abadonment of fiscal deficit targets will increase tensions with the EU Commission, and will lead the debt levels to
soar above 100% of GDP by 2016. The high debt load could ultimately lead to rapidly widening credit spreads once yields start to rise,
and leaves France exposed to interest rate shocks. Our latest forecasts do not envisage debt/GDP levels falling across our ten year
forecast period, and we do not expect the fiscal deficit to fall below 3.0% of GDP until 2018 at the earliest.
Table: Fiscal Policy.16
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast. 19
The French Economy To 2023. 19
A Difficult Decade.19
The French economic model is looking increasingly threatened over the coming decade, with tepid growth, rising debt loads and
persistent unemployment expected to characterise the country's long-term outlook. Despite this somewhat bleak prognosis, we highlight
that we expect France to outperform relative to most of its regional peers.
Table: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forec asts 19
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 21
Operational Risk Index. 21
Operational Risk 22
Table: Developed States - Labour Market Ris k.22
Table: Developed States - Logistics Ris k25
Table: Developed States - Crime And Securit y Ris ks27
Table: Developed States - Trade And Investment Ris k30
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 33
Oil and Gas 33
Table: Headline Forec asts ..33
Table: Oil Production34
Table: Oil Production34
Table: Gas Production.35
Table: Gas Production.35
Infrastructure.. 36
Table: Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Data.37
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data..38
Other Key Sectors 41
Table: Pharm a Sector Ke y Indic ators .41
Table: Telecoms Sector Ke y Indic ators 41
Table: Defence and Securit y Sector Ke y Indic ators ..41
Table: Food and Drin k Sector Ke y Indic ators 42
Table: Autos Sector Ke y Indic ators .42
Table: Freight Ke y Indic ators ..42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions.. 43
Global Outlook 43
Big Emerging Market Revisions.43
Table: Glob al Asumptions .43
Table: Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %..44
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %.45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Amrita

+1 718 303 2019

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Industrial Labels Market by Type, Material, Industry, Mechanism, Printing Technology, Identification Technology, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

Industrial Labels Market by Type, Material, Industry, Mechanism, Printing Technology, Identification Technology, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 9 000
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Growing demand in the parent industries to propel the market for industrial labels” The global market for industrial labels is projected to grow from USD 43.04 billion in 2016 to reach USD 55.95 ...

Future of Logistics

Future of Logistics

  • $ 10 000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Frost & Sullivan

Unbundling of the Supply Chain The supply chain market is becoming more complex in a time-constrained environment as speed of delivery and user experience emerge as critical factors; in fact, instant and ...

Cold Storage Construction Market by Storage Type, Application, and Region - Global Forecasts to 2021

Cold Storage Construction Market by Storage Type, Application, and Region - Global Forecasts to 2021

  • $ 5 650
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

The global cold storage construction market is projected to reach USD 10.47 billion by 2021, at a CAGR of 14.0% between 2016 and 2021. The growth of this market can be attributed to the growth of international ...


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.