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  4. > Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q1 2017

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


>BMI View:
Production prospects look broadly favourable for Ethiopian agriculture over the long term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms of grains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to El Niño. Even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely to remain a net grains importer over the medium term. Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 278% to 973,000 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugar corporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of the plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.

- Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption, although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenya and Uganda.

- 2017 real GDP growth: 7.7% (up from 6.3% in 2016; predicted to average 7.2% from 2016 until 2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 8.5% average in 2017 (up from 8.2% in 2015). Latest Updates & Structural Trends We expect prices of meat and dairy products to remain elevated over 2016 and early 2017 as poor pasture conditions and floods lead to elevated livestock deaths. Ethiopia's cattle herds rely mainly on pasture rather than grains as a source for feed and the recent weather shocks will lead to increasing livestock death. The 2015 droughts led to 200,000 livestock deaths according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and we believe that surviving livestock will remain at risk to floods.

Table Of Contents

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 14
Grains Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 17
Coffee Outlook 17
Latest Updates 17
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 19
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 20
Commodities Price Analysis 21
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 21
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 21
Featured Analysis 23
Ten Emerging Markets Of The Future: Highlighting Key Sectors 23
Table: Key Drivers Of Economic Growth By Sector Classification, 2016-2025 25
Country Summaries 25
Table: Bangladesh - Sector Growth Forecasts 26
Table: Egypt - Sector Growth Forecasts 28
Table: Ethiopia - Sector Growth Forecasts 30
Table: Indonesia - Sector Growth Forecasts 32
Table: Kenya - Sector Growth Forecasts 33
Table: Myanmar - Sector Growth Rates 34
Table: Nigeria - Sector Growth Rates 36
Table: Pakistan - Sector Growth Rates 37
Table: Philippines - Sector Growth Rates 38
Table: Vietnam - Sector Growth Rates 40
Upstream Analysis 41
Africa GM Outlook 41
Africa Machinery Outlook 49
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 49
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 55
Regional Overview 60
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 60
Demographic Forecast 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sector-Specific Methodology 72

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