Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of its agricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting another extension to the sugar import safeguard, which will provide a short-term boost, we expect the country’s sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient and to post very limited growth over the coming years. However, we continue to forecast steady coffee production growth due to improvements in husbandry techniques. Kenya largely avoided the El Niño-related droughts that affected grain production in southern Africa, but the country will face more expensive corn imports due to elevated regional prices.
- Corn production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 10% to 3.1mn tonnes. Corn production growth will be fairly limited, as subdued prices relative to previous years will limit plantings, while yield growth will be poor. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.
- Wheat consumption growth 2015 to 2020: 12% to 2.1mn tonnes. Kenyans already have a high rate of wheat consumption by regional standards. Improvements in availability and growth in population and incomes will drive consumption.
- Coffee production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 324to 809,000 60kg bags. Growth will be driven by increased financial support from the government in the form of funds and debt relief. In addition, new coffee varieties are likely to help boost yields. Much of this growth will be due to low base effects, however.
Table Of Contents
Kenya Agribusiness Report Q1 2017 BMI Industry View 7 SWOT 10 Industry Forecast 12 Coffee Outlook 12 Latest Updates 12 Table: Kenya - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 12 Table: Risks To Outlook 13 Structural Trends 13 Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) 14 Grains Outlook 14 Latest Updates 14 Table: Kenya - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 15 Table: Risks To Outlook 15 Structural Trends 15 Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Kenya, 2012-2020) 17 Sugar Outlook 17 Latest Updates 18 Table: Kenya - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 18 Table: Risks To Outlook 19 Structural Trends 19 Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) 20 Commodities Price Analysis 21 Global - Global Commodities Strategy 21 Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 21 Upstream Analysis 23 Africa GM Outlook 23 Africa Machinery Outlook 31 Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 31 Africa Fertiliser Outlook 37 Downstream Analysis 42 Food 42 Latest Updates 42 Structural Trends 43 Table: Food Sales (Kenya 2013-2020) 44 Regional Overview 47 Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 47 Competitive Landscape 53 Table: Kenya - Competitive Landscape 53 Demographic Forecast 54 Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) 55 Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) 55 Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) 56 Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) 56 Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 57 Methodology 59 Industry Forecast Methodology 59 Sector-Specific Methodology 60