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Kenya Agribusiness Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of its agricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting another extension to the sugar import safeguard, which will provide a short-term boost, we expect the country’s sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient and to post very limited growth over the coming years. However, we continue to forecast steady coffee production growth due to improvements in husbandry techniques. Kenya largely avoided the El Niño-related droughts that affected grain production in southern Africa, but the country will face more expensive corn imports due to elevated regional prices.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 10% to 3.1mn tonnes. Corn production growth will be fairly limited, as subdued prices relative to previous years will limit plantings, while yield growth will be poor. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.

- Wheat consumption growth 2015 to 2020: 12% to 2.1mn tonnes. Kenyans already have a high rate of wheat consumption by regional standards. Improvements in availability and growth in population and incomes will drive consumption.

- Coffee production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 324to 809,000 60kg bags. Growth will be driven by increased financial support from the government in the form of funds and debt relief. In addition, new coffee varieties are likely to help boost yields. Much of this growth will be due to low base effects, however.

Table Of Contents

Kenya Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 12
Coffee Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Kenya - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) 14
Grains Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Kenya - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Kenya, 2012-2020) 17
Sugar Outlook 17
Latest Updates 18
Table: Kenya - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) 20
Commodities Price Analysis 21
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 21
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 21
Upstream Analysis 23
Africa GM Outlook 23
Africa Machinery Outlook 31
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 31
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 37
Downstream Analysis 42
Food 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 43
Table: Food Sales (Kenya 2013-2020) 44
Regional Overview 47
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 47
Competitive Landscape 53
Table: Kenya - Competitive Landscape 53
Demographic Forecast 54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) 55
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) 55
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) 56
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) 56
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sector-Specific Methodology 60

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