eBooks: Markets & Forecasts 2008-2015 3rd edition

• Publication date: October 2011

This report takes an in-depth look at the e-book market, and provides industry figures for 2008 to 2015. It breaks down the new digital value chain, identifies stakeholder strategies through some 20 case studies, details their business models and analyses the core technical issues (formats and portability, DRM, electronic ink, etc.). Key questions • What are the latest trends and how is the book publishing market evolving:...

This report takes an in-depth look at the e-book market, and provides industry figures for 2008 to 2015. It breaks down the new digital value chain, identifies stakeholder strategies through some 20 case studies, details their business models and analyses the core technical issues (formats and portability, DRM, electronic ink, etc.).

Key questions

• What are the latest trends and how is the book publishing market evolving: electronic and print?
• What are the different market segments? Which are the most innovative and dynamic?
• Are we seeing a consolidation of the electronic book market? Who are the dominant players and what business models are they employing?
• Which technologies and formats are being used for e-books and their distribution? What role is the cloud playing?
• What costs are involved in publishing and distributing an e-book?
• Is the e-book’s destruction of value offset by new market opportunities?
• What market share do e-books have in the different countries?

> This report ships with a database for 2008-2015:
- e-book market, printed book market (sales)
- reader market (shipments in number of units)
- Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, the United States

Book Publishing Industry in the United States

Contents

The electronic version of this report (PDF) is delivered with a database in Excel and a
presentation (Powerpoint).

1. Executive Summary .. 8
1.1. A rapidly growing market, especially in English-speaking countries 9
1.1.1. Digital books now account for a significant share of the book market .. 9
1.1.2. English-speaking countries are the champions of digital books . 10
1.1.3. The particular model of japan, ruled by mobile devices .. 11
1.2. Upcoming adjustments within the digital landscape ... 11
1.2.1. Still unstable pricing models ... 11
1.2.2. New balances of power along the value chain ... 12
1.3. A relatively minor destruction of value by 2015 .. 14
1.3.1. Chronic decline of the printed book market 14
1.3.2. Progressive growth trend of the digital book market ... 14
1.3.3. However, the rise of digital book sales does not offset the decline of printed book sales .. 14
1.3.4. New opportunities related to digital books .. 15
2. Methodology 16
3. Market structure and key factors .. 18
3.1. Market overview .. 18
3.1.1. Market segmentation .. 18
3.1.2. Trends in products/services 32
3.2. Current market estimates ... 39
3.2.1. Profiles of the various domestic markets 39
3.2.2. Markets by region ... 51
3.3. Key aspects 54
3.3.1. Formats ... 54
3.3.2. DRM Protection ... 67
3.3.3. Metadata to share information on books . 70
3.3.4. Display technologies ... 71
3.3.5. Impacts of regulations . 75
3.3.6. Reading practices ... 78
3.3.7. Reading device preferences ... 82
4. Industrial organisation and strategy . 87
4.1. Industrial structure .. 87
4.1.1. Physical and digital value chains 87
4.1.2. Competitive structure .. 90
4.1.3. Business models . 93
4.2. Player profiles ... 107
4.2.1. Publishers . 107
4.2.2. Aggregators .. 112
4.2.3. Retailers 118
4.2.4. Telecom operators 128
4.2.5. OEMs 133
4.3. Strategic analysis .. 137
4.3.1. 2015: Value creation or destruction? 137
4.3.2. The various literary genres are going digital to varying degrees .. 139
4.3.3. The battle of devices: e-readers vs. tablets .. 143
4.3.4. Avoiding the cannibalisation of paper sales .. 144
5. Markets and forecasts .. 147
5.1. Growth factors ... 147
5.1.1. Analysis of the growth/disruption factors .. 147
5.1.2. Forecast assumptions ... 148
5.2. Market forecasts ... 148
5.2.1. E-book markets are still on the rise ... 148
5.2.2. Decline of the overall book market by 2015 .. 150
5.2.3. English-speaking countries: privileged markets for e-readers .. 151

List of Tables

Table 1: Breakdown of comic books sales by Apple device 27
Table 2: Statistics of the tourism-related publishing industry in France* .. 29
Table 3: Comparison of self-publishing services offered by e-book retailers ... 33
Table 4: Benefits and disadvantages of various book distribution strategies from the author’s perspective ... 33
Table 5: Most frequently pirated book types 38
Table 6: Formats of available books 38
Table 7: Status of the US book market 39
Table 8: Digital book value chain in the US . 40
Table 9: Status of the Canadian book market .. 41
Table 10: Digital book value chain in Canada (excluding Quebec) 41
Table 11: Digital book value chain in Quebec (Canada) 42
Table 12: Status of the Japanese book market .. 43
Table 13: Digital book value chain in Japan ... 44
Table 14: Status of the UK book market 45
Table 15: Digital book value chain in the UK . 45
Table 16: Status of the German book market 46
Table 17: Digital book value chain in Germany .. 47
Table 18: Status of the French book market .. 48
Table 19: Digital book value chain in France . 48
Table 20: Status of the Spanish book market 49
Table 21: Digital book value chain in Spain ... 50
Table 22: Status of the Italian book market 51
Table 23: Digital book value chain in Italy .. 51
Table 24: Relative weight of the digital book market with respect to the total book market (printed + digital) .. 52
Table 25: Production costs of a simple book in ePub and AZW/MOBI by eBook Architects . 59
Table 26: Production costs of a complex book in ePub and AZW/MOBI by eBook Architects .. 59
Table 27: Production costs of an EPUB file containing metadata .. 59
Table 28: Costs of digitising a printed book ... 60
Table 29: Types of formats offered for download by different platforms 61
Table 30: Benefits and disadvantages of ePub 3 enhanced books and book applications ... 64
Table 31: Reading devices and platforms supporting e-book retailer applications 65
Table 32: Significant initiatives in the field of color electronic ink ... 73
Table 33: Characteristics of displays by type of technology .. 74
Table 34: Application of the one-price policy and VAT rates to printed and digital books in each country 77
Table 35: E-book acquisition methods ... 80
Table 36: Types of e-books downloaded or consulted in France, 2010 . 80
Table 37: Share of revenues from e-books in total revenues (%) .. 91
Table 38: Market shares of the most common digital reading devices in the US, mid-2011 . 92
Table 39: Price list of e-books sold on the Apple iBookstore based on an initial sales price in EUR . 95
Table 40: Publisher revenues on the sale of an e-book according to the wholesale or agency models 96
Table 41: Benefits and disadvantages of the wholesale and agency models 96
Table 42: Estimated sales of e-books by Amazon according to type of contract with publishers .. 98
Table 43: Observed sales price for “Unleashing the super ideavirus” by Seth Godin .. 112
Table 44: List of aggregators by country of origin 113
Table 45: List of bookstore chains with indication of digital activity, if applicable 118
Table 46: Estimated revenues related to Kindle sales (hardware) and Kindle e-books (files) . 120
Table 47: List of available formats for On the gathering storm on Smashwords .. 128
Table 48: Positioning of various telecom operators along the digital book value chain ... 129
Table 49: Examples of equipment manufacturers moving up the value chain in order to provide e-books . 134
E-book, markets & forecasts, 2008-2015
www.idate-research.com © IDATE 2011 6
Table 50: Financial performance of CBS’ publishing activity (Simon & Schuster) ... 139
Table 51: Evolution of the relative penetration rates of e-readers and tablets . 144
Table 52: Comparative summary of the prices of the 2010 bestsellers on the Barnes & Noble Nook Store ... 145
Table 53: Market share of digital books in value and volume by country, in 2015 ... 149

List of Figures

Figure 1: Evolution of the book market (North America, EU5, Japan) 9
Figure 2: Share of digital books in the overall book market in 2011, by country . 9
Figure 3: Digital market in 2011, by country .. 10
Figure 4: Evolution of the book market (North America, EU5, Japan) .. 15
Figure 5: Content-sharing feature on Safari Books Online 20
Figure 6: Subscription price to some online dictionaries and encyclopedias 21
Figure 7: Britannica thematic applications on the Apple Store .. 21
Figure 8: Forecast of digital textbook sales in the US ... 22
Figure 9: The note-taking function on NOOKstudy ... 22
Figure 10: St Valentine Limited Edition of the Sony Reader with 14 pre-loaded Harlequin novels . 23
Figure 11: Harlequin novels on the Nintendo DS console ... 23
Figure 12: Mobile phone displaying a "keitai shosestu" .. 25
Figure 13: Ave!Comics solution by Aquafadas 27
Figure 14: Sales of travel guides in the USA, UK and Australia between 2006 and 2010 .. 29
Figure 15: Sales of maps in the USA, UK and Australia between 2006 and 2010 .. 29
Figure 16: Digital Comics Service on Sony PSP . 31
Figure 17: iBooks Application on iPad . 31
Figure 18: QOOQ: a cooking-oriented tablet ... 32
Figure 19: List of Apple-certified aggregators for distribution on the North American iBookstore ... 33
Figure 20: Enhanced digital book sold on the US Kindle Store ... 34
Figure 21: Choose a story ... 35
Figure 22: Story synopsis before jumping in ... 35
Figure 23: Discussion of a book on the Google+ social network . 36
Figure 24: Reading Life feature within the Kobo for iPad application .. 37
Figure 25: "Genre Map" on the BookCountry dedicated social network created by Penguin .. 37
Figure 26: Digital book market by region, 2009-2011 . 52
Figure 27: Total book market (printed + digital) by region, 2009-2011 53
Figure 28: E-reader sales by region, 2009-2011 . 53
Figure 29: New usages of the ePub 3 format adapted to manga 57
Figure 30: Producing process of an e-book by an house conversion house ... 60
Figure 31: Use of PDF, ePub and AZW (Kindle) formats by American publishers based on their field of activity62
Figure 32: Formats actually used or whose use is anticipated by Spanish publishers ... 63
Figure 33: Enhanced book of KADATH, Guide of the Unknown City in ePub 3 format .. 64
Figure 34: Netflix application suggesting the user to subscribe on the website .. 66
Figure 35: Amazon’s Kindle application mentioning the removal of the link to the Kindle store . 66
Figure 36: Free applications platform for accessing Nook books via different devices ... 67
Figure 37: E-book loans in public libraries in the US in late 2010 ... 68
Figure 38: Life cycle of an e-book entirely run by Adobe 70
Figure 39: Comparison of the current Fujistu Flepia e-reader (right) with a next generation prototype (left) .. 74
Figure 40: Use of digital books and e-book purchases among American book buyers ... 78
Figure 41: Progression of the use of digital books .. 79
Figure 42: Demographic profile of e-book buyers in the US ... 79
Figure 43: Sales of printed (‘physical’) and e-books at Sourcebooks . 81
Figure 44: Penetration rate of the various reading device types in the United States, 2010-2011 . 82
Figure 45: Preferred type of device for acquiring e-books in the United States, in 2011 82
Figure 46: Preferred type of device for reading e-books in the United States, in 2011 ... 83
Figure 47: Tablet uses . 83
Figure 48: Location of use of tablets/e-readers ... 84
Figure 49: Average time per reading session (week-ends) . 84
Figure 50: Penetration rate of tablets and e-readers by gender and age-group in the US . 85
Figure 51: Penetration rate of tablets and e-readers by education level and income in the US . 85
Figure 52: Willingness to pay according to device .. 86
Figure 53: Paper book value chain .. 87
Figure 54: Digital book value chain . 88
Figure 55: Disintermediation along the digital value chain .. 90
Figure 56: Evolution of the number of fiction and non-fiction literature bestsellers sold under the agency model
by Amazon and Barnes & Noble 97
Figure 57: Evolution in the number of romance bestsellers sold under the agency model by Amazon and
Barnes & Noble .. 98
Figure 58: Preference for pay-per-book vs subscription model ... 98
Figure 59: Subscription plans to the Harlequin Presents book series . 99
Figure 60: E-book subscription and distribution mechanisms on mobile phones .. 100
Figure 61: Pick & Mix offer for the Lonely Planet Mexico travel guide .. 103
Figure 62: Sponsorship of a selection of e-books by DirecTV ... 104
Figure 63: Inserted add on the front page of an e-book download in PDF format 104
Figure 64: Inserted adds on the Kindle: screensaver and navigation menu . 105
Figure 65: Advertising display associated with free e-book reading . 106
Figure 66: Digital book sales by Hachette Book Group USA 108
Figure 67: Share of Harlquin’s digital revenues as a percentage of global revenues ... 109
Figure 68: “Unleashing the super ideavirus” Vook by Seth Godin 112
Figure 69: Comic books for rental and permanent access on the Izneo platform . 117
Figure 70: Evolution of the price of the 6-inch Kindle 120
Figure 71: Evolution of the catalogue of the American Kindle Store . 120
Figure 72: Nook Color (tablet, LCD display, USD 249) . 122
Figure 73: Nook Touch (e-reader, eInk display, USD 139) ... 122
Figure 74: Kobo eReader Touch Edition (USD 129.99) 123
Figure 75: Partial consultation of a book on Google Books .. 125
Figure 76: Story e-reader by iriver, connected (over Wife) by default to the Google eBooks platform . 126
Figure 77: Average size of an ePub file 130
Figure 78: Toshiba Biblio smartphone distributed by au by KDDI . 132
Figure 79: Toshiba Biblio smartphone distributed by au by KDDI . 132
Figure 80: Telecom Italia’s e-book download platform associated with a 3G connected e-reader ... 133
Figure 81: Sony’s line of e-readers (Daily, Pocket et Touch) 135
Figure 82: Use of Cloud for books purchased on the iBookstore .. 137
Figure 83: Evolution of the number of titles purchased by e-book consumers .. 138
Figure 84: Breakdown of costs of a paper book in France ... . 139
Figure 85: Revenues of self-published American author Brian S. Pratt via the Smashwords aggregator 143
Figure 86: Trends in the expenses of e-book consumers by book type 145
Figure 87: Forecasts of the e-book market by region, 2012-2015 149
Figure 88: Evolution of the overall book market (paper + digital) by region .. 150
Figure 89: Forecasts of e-reader sales in volume by region, 2012-2015 .. 151