College Publishing Market Forecast 2011-2012

  • November 2011
  • -
  • Simba Information

Simba Information’s College Publishing Market Forecast 2011-2012 is the most up-to-date business information and market trends resource providing a complete view of the higher education market in the U.S. in a single-source format.



This newly updated report provides a complete analysis of market conditions and industry initiatives for the higher education instructional materials market. A key feature of the report is Simba’s partnership with R.R. Bowker PubTrack Higher Education to provide the most up-to-date retail sales data of books in the U.S. college market, broken down by publisher, disciplines and new and used titles.



Topics in College Publishing Market Forecast 2011-2012 include:


  • Market size by media segment: textbooks (new and used), multimedia materials and tools

  • Drivers of segment growth

  • Impact of emergent technologies, including digital tablets and other devices and e-textbooks

  • Sales data by discipline

  • In-depth assessment of the key community-college and for-profit career-college markets

  • Analysis of landscape metrics: funding, policy and enrollment

  • Developing trends in distribution

  • Market segment projections through 2014

  • Detailed profiles of leading providers of instructional materials and services

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary




Chapter 1: Size and Structure

Introduction

College Books Account for 27% of Book Publishing Universe

Used Textbooks Show Persistence

Key Media in the College Classroom

eTextbooks Show Strong Growth

Average Textbook Prices Increase Moderately

Top 10 Publishers Account for 84% of College Market




Table 1.1: Growth in College Textbook Net Sales, 2000-2010 CAGR=7%

Table 1.2: Domestic College Instructional Materials Sales in Comparison to Other Publishing Categories, 2008-2010

Table 1.3: New Textbooks vs. Used Textbooks in the U.S., 2009-2011P

Table 1.4: Share of Media Used in U.S. College Classrooms, 2011P

Table 1.5: Average Textbook Price Comparison, New vs. Used, Academic Years, 2006-2010

Table 1.6: Simba Information’s College Publisher Index, 2009-2010




Chapter 2: Enrollment

Overview

Enrollment by Age

Enrollment by Gender

Diversity on the Campus

Full-Time vs. Part-Time Enrollment Changes

Public vs. Private Enrollment

Degree Distribution Shifts

Where the Students Will Come From




Table 2.1: Total Enrollment in Higher Education, 1994-2019P

Table 2.2: College Enrollment by Age, 1994-2019P

Table 2.3: Total Enrollment in Higher Education by Gender, 1994-2019P

Table 2.4: U.S. Enrollment Numbers by Race, 1994-2019P

Table 2.5: Total Higher Education Enrollment by Enrollment Status, 1994-2017P

Table 2.6: Fall 2009 Enrollment by Institutional Type

Table 2.7: Degrees Conferred, 1994-2019P

Table 2.8: Public High School Graduates, 2007-2008

Table 2.9: Public High School Graduates, 2017-2018P




Chapter 3: Funding

Introduction

Tuition and Total Cost

Aid makes a Difference

Various Financing Options Available

Federal Government Addresses Affordability

Pell Grants Important Part of Federal Funding

More Focus on Community College

States Face Financial Issues

Tuition Increases the Norm Across the States




Table 3.1: Average Tuition and Fee Charges

Table 3.2: Higher Education Financial Aid, 1998-1999, to 2009-2010

Table 3.3: Estimated Federal Aid for Post-Secondary Education, 2012E

Table 3.4: Higher Education Programs FY2010-2012P

Table 3.5: State Appropriations to Higher Education, FY2009-2011




Chapter 4: Textbooks

Introduction

eTextbooks Expand of Format Offerings

New Pilots Sprout

eTextbooks Projected to Grow in 2011

Digital Licensing Grows; Digital Rental Blooms

Open Educational Resources Jockey for Position

Connexions and Flat World Knowledge Grow

Ten Publishers Command 69.2% of New Units Sold

Math Course Accounted for the Most Textbook Sales in 2010

Most Improved Vacational-Tech, Greatest Drop: Museum Studies

In 9 Leading Disciplines, Pearson Holds Leadership in 7

Pearson is Best -Selling Math Publishers in 2010

Pearson Also Leads in English

Pearson McGraw-Hill Dominate in Biological Sciences

Cengage Pushes Pearson in Psychology

Pearson Teaches Teachers

McGraw-Hill Adds up in Accounting

Pearson and Cengage Learning Define History as No. 1 and No. 2

McGraw-Hill and Cengage Learning Top Foreign Language Sales

Pearson Leads in Chemistry




Table 4.1: New and Used Book Sales at College Retail, 2008-2010

Table 4.2: Reed College iPad Pilot Findings

Table 4.3: Book Sales: New, Used and eTexts, 2009-2011P

Table 4.4: Leading Publishers by New Units, 2010 vs. 2009

Table 4.5: Top 20 Disciplines for Textbook Sales, 2010 vs. 2009

Table 4.6: Unit Sales Patterns, 2010

Table 4.7: Mathematics - Leading Publishers, 2010

Table 4.8: English - Leading Publishers, 2010

Table 4.9: Biological Sciences - Leading Publishers, 2010

Table 4.10: Psychological - Leading Publishers, 2010

Table 4.11: Education - Leading Publishers, 2010

Table 4.12: Accounting - Leading Publishers, 2010

Table 4.13: History - Leading Publishers, 2010

Table 4.14: Foreign Languages and Literature - Leading Publishers, 2007

Table 4.15: Chemistry - Leading Publishers, 2010




Chapter 5: Multimedia Materials

Introduction

Technology Market Expanding

Cengage Learning Probes Market with mind Tap

McGraw-Hill Invests in Technology

Wiley looks for Stronger Tech Component

Pearson, Blackboard Take a Page from OER and Tap the Cloud

Mobile Moves onto Campuses




Table 5.1: Multimedia Market Share, 2009-2011P




Chapter 6: Marketing and Distribution

Overview

What Students Pay

What Textbooks Cost

College Stores Still First Stop

Online Purchasing of Materials Grow

Social Media has an Impact

Used Texts: Wanted, but Limited

Textbook Rental Options on the Rise

Drivers Toward Digital Content

Learning Management Systems Play a Role

EReaders and Apps

Digital Licensing Programs Launch

Digital Licensing Pricing Being Worked Out




Table 6.1: Total College Store Market

Table 6.2: Increase in Median Sales Made Online




Chapter 7: Forecast and Conclusions

Overview

Mobile and Modular

Multimedia Materials Show Growth




Table 7.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2010-2014

Table 7.2: Sales Forecast of E-Textbooks, 2010-2014




Profiles of Leading College Textbook Distributors and Retailers

Barnes and Noble College Booksellers

Blackboard

Cengage Learning

Chegg.com

Follett Corp.

McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc.)

Nebraska Book Co.

Pearson Education

John Wiley and Sons

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