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Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The interest of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan livestock industry supports our view that this is the sub-sector with most growth potential. Poultry production in particular is expected to perform well over the next five years. The development of the livestock industry ties into another key trend we expect to take hold over our forecast period: the diversification of arable production away from the bedrock commodity, wheat. Feed grains will assume greater importance, particularly corn, in the grains complex. The dairy industry is growing from a weaker base than that enjoyed by meat producers, so we expect statefunded schemes to play a more significant role in its medium-term development and modernisation.


Key BMI Forecasts
- Wheat production decline to 2018/19: 4.9% to 14.6mn tonnes. Improving yields will allow for modest output growth, while acreages will decline due to subsidies incentivising sowings of other field crops.
- Milk consumption growth to 2019: 12.4% to 5.1mn tonnes. Demand will be held back in the short term by the challenging macroeconomic situation, but we expect strong growth to return in the later years of our forecast period.
- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.7%, up from 1.1% in 2015.
- 2016 average consumer price inflation: 10.5% y-o-y, up from 9.0% y-o-y in 2014.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT . 10
Agribusiness . 10
Industry Forecast .. 12
Dairy Outlook .. 12
Table: Kazakhstan - Milk Production and Consumption Outlook . 12
Table: Kazakhstan - Butter Production and Consumption Outlook . . 12
Table: Kazakhstan - Cheese Production and Consumption Outlook . 13
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 13
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) 15
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) . . 15
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) . 15
Livestock Outlook 16
Table: Kazakhstan - Poultry Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Kazakhstan - Pork Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Kazakhstan - Beef Production and Consumption Outlook . 17
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 18
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) 21
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) 21
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) . 21
Grains Outlook 22
Table: Kazakhstan - Wheat Production and Consumption Outlook . . 22
Table: Kazakhstan - Corn Production and Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Kazakhstan - Barley Production and Consumption Outlook . 23
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 23
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) . 26
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) 26
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2011-2019) . 26
Commodities Price Analysis 27
Global Commodities Strategy 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . 27
Upstream Analysis 29
Europe Machinery Outlook 29
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) . 32
Europe GM Outlook 35
Europe Fertiliser Outlook . 41
Downstream Analysis . 47
Food .. 47
Food Consumption 47
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) 48
Confectionery . 49
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) . . 50
Processed Foods 51
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) . . 52
Table: Frozen Fruit and Vegetables Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) . . 52
Baked Products . 52
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) 53
Pasta 53
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) 54
Dairy 54
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) 55
Regional Overview 57
Demographic Forecast .. 63
Demographic Outlook 63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) . . 64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) . . 64
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) . 65
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) . . 65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) . . 66
Methodology . 68
Industry Forecast Methodology . 68
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 69

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