Mobile Money Transfer & Remittances:  Business Models & Monetisation Opportunities 2011-2016

• Publication date: December 2011

Overview   .        30 Exclusive Forecast Tables   ·         Mobile Money Deployment Analysis   ·         Unique Vendor Positioning Matrix   This new study confronts the rapidly developing mobile money transfer and remittance market, providing unrivalled insight and unsurpassed critical content:   A thorough examination of the major emerging trends. The report provides in-dept...

Overview

 
.        30 Exclusive Forecast Tables
 
·         Mobile Money Deployment Analysis
 
·         Unique Vendor Positioning Matrix
 
This new study confronts the rapidly developing mobile money transfer and remittance market, providing unrivalled insight and unsurpassed critical content:
 
A thorough examination of the major emerging trends. The report provides in-depth analysis of the key trends, including market consolidation, the growth of multilateral hubbing and the evolving role of both MNOs and third parties within the money transfer system.
 
Twelve selected profiles of leading players. A systematic evaluation of each vendor is provided in our cutting edge Vendor Matrix. This unique comparative analysis tool examines product and positioning against capability and capacity resulting in a revealing matrix of vendor positioning.
 
Key Features of The Report Include:
 
·         In depth analysis of the MTR ecosystem - extensive coverage of player strategies, featuring revenue opportunities across the value chain
 
·         Exclusive interviews with CxO level executives - unique insight into the affecting drivers and constraints of this fast evolving marketplace.
 
·         5 Year, state of the art forecast suite - provides current and projected figures for service adoption, remittance values and service provider revenue opportunities.
 
Juniper crystallises forecast conclusions with a regional analysis of market attractiveness, classifying market opportunity by mobile money users & transactions over eight key regions. Frontline knowledge of the relative popularity of the varying remittance services, including airtime top-up, and domestic & international remittance services is given in depth.
 
Finally this innovative report explores and expounds the major drivers of remittance services as well as the inhibitors presently constraining service deployment and wider adoption.

Companies Referenced

Accenture, Alcatel-Lucent, Belgacom ICS, Celcom, Comviva, CPNI, C-SAM, DonRiver, eServGlobal, Fundamo, Gemalto, hyperWALLET, LUUP, mChek, Mi-Pay, Monitise, Mozido, m-Service, Nokia, Obopay, PayPal, ProgressSoft, Roamware, Safaricom, SAP/Sybase 365, Seamless, SmartMoney, Utiba, Visa, Vodafone, Western Union, Xius-bcgi, YellowPepper

Global Payment Processing Industry

Executive Summary

The Evolution of the Mobile MTR Space

2.1 The Mobile Money Transfer Space Today............. 43

2.1.1 Consolidation and Acquisition.. 43

2.1.2 The Transition to a Hubbed Environment....... 44

2.1.3 The Evolving Role of the MNO.... 44

i. Why Should MNOs Launch Mobile Money Services?............. 45

ii. The Third-Party Opportunity...... 46

a. Barriers to Co-Operation: The Banks' Perception.. 46

iii. Delivering a Successful Mobile MMT Service........ 47

a. Necessity for Upfront Investment... 48

Figure 2.1: Cumulative Net Cash Flow and Active Customer Base, MTN Mobile
Money, Uganda........ 48

b. Monetising the MMT Service....... 48

2.2 Future Prospects, New Markets............ 49

2.2.1 The Impact of the Smarter Feature phone...... 49

Figure 2.2: Selected 2011 Touchscreen Feature phones: Nokia C2-03,
Motorola WILDER, Samsung S3850 Corby II, LG T500......... 50

i. Towards a Cloud-Based Environment. 51

2.2.2 Prospects for Domestic Money Transfer in Developed Markets......... 52

2.3 Service Deployments Analysis............. 53

Figure 2.3: Mobile Money Transfer Service Launches (Number p.a.) 2001- Nov
2011..... 53

Table 2.1: Mobile Money Transfer Service Launches (Number p.a.) 2001- Nov
2011............ 53

2.3.1 Regional Deployments Analysis 53

Figure 2.4: Mobile Money Transfer Service Launches (Number p.a.) 2001- Nov
2011  Split by 8 Key Regions....  54

Table 2.2: Mobile Money Transfer Service Launches (Number p.a.) 2001-Nov
2011  Split by 8 Key Regions.... 55

2.3.2 Analysis by Type of Application Offered. 55

Figure 2.5: Mobile Money Applications by Type as at November 2011.... 55

Table 2.3: Mobile Money Applications by Type as at November 2011... 56

2.3.3 Future Development of the Market: From Money Transfer to
Microfinance... 56

2.3.4 Analysis by Registered Users... 57

Figure 2.6: Mobile Money Registered Users (m) split by 8 Key Regions as at
December 2011 57

Table 2.4: Mobile Money Registered Users (m) split by 8 Key Regions as at
December 2011............. 58

2.4 Case Studies.......... 58

2.4.1 Safaricom M-PESA... 59

i Service Description.. 59

ii Service Statistics 59

Figure 2.7: Safaricom Data Revenues (KES bn) Split by
Broadband, M-PESA & SMS  H1 2009-H1
2012 60

Table 2.5: Safaricom Data Revenues (KES bn) Split by
Broadband, M-PESA & SMS  H1 2009-H1
2011...... 60

iii Service Developments.......... 60

2.4.2 Smart Money. 61

Figure 2.8: SmartMoney Service Features... 61

Figure 2.9: Smart Money Annual Revenues (PHP million), 2006-2010...... 62

Table 2.6: Smart Money Annual Revenues (PHP million), 2006-2010 62

2.4.3 Western Union...... 63

Mobile Money: Setting the Scene
1.1 Introduction...... 21

1.2 Mobile Money Context 22

1.2.1 Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation... 22

Figure 1.1: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation... 22

1.2.2 Mobile Payments...... 23

i. Digital & Physical Goods..... 23

ii. NFC.......... 23

iii. Mobile Money Person to Person Transfer. 23

1.3 Report Focus...... 24

1.3.1 Transformational Banking.. 24

Table 1.1: Transformational Compared to Additive Banking. 24

1.3.2 Social Transfers............. 25

1.4 Drivers and Constraints............ 25

Figure 1.2: Mobile Money Transfer: Drivers and Constraints............. 26

1.4.1 Mobile Money Transfer Drivers....... 26

i. Attractive to Users........ 26

ii. The MNO Imperative....... 26

Figure 1.3: Operator-billed Monthly ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions
2005-2010.... 27

iii. First-time Financial Access 28

iv. Real Cash Alternative... 29

v. Migrant Worker Remittances....... 29

1.4.2 Mobile Money Transfer Constraints....... 29

i. Consumer Awareness.. 29

Figure 1.4: Driving Early Uptake - The Need for Intervention....... 30

ii. Regulatory Issues..... 31

iii. KYC (Know Your Customer) Requirements...... 32

iv. Lack of Interoperability... 33

v. Inadequate Local Agent Networks....... 35

Figure 1.5: Safaricom MPESA subscribers & agents, September 2010-
September 2011............ 35

Figure 1.6 MPESA Mobile Remittance Participant Activities............. 36

vi. Cost of International Money Transfer........... 36

vii. Service Security and Trust. 36

viii. Network Reliability.......... 37

ix. The Recession... 38

1.5 Financial Access in the Developed World.... 38

1.6 World Bank Remittance Forecasts....... 39

Figure 1.7: World Remittance Flows ($bn) to Developing Countries 2009-2013.... 39

Table 1.2: World Remittance Flows ($bn) to Developing Countries 2009-2013........ 39

1.7 GSMA Mobile Money Initiatives 40

1.7.1 MMT (Mobile Money Transfer)......... 40

1.7.2 MMU (Mobile Money for the Unbanked)...... 40

Mobile Money Transfer Forecasts

3.1 Market Segmentation............. 65

3.1.1 Domestic Transfers.......... 65

3.1.2 Sophisticated Financial Services........... 65

3.1.3 International Transfers or Remittances 66

3.2 Methodology 66

3.2.1 Approach and Assumptions.. 66

Figure 3.1: Mobile Money Transfer Market Forecast Methodology... 66

3.3 Mobile Subscriber Forecast......... 68

Figure 3.2: Mobile Handset Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 68

Table 3.1: Mobile Handset Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............. 69

3.4 Transaction Value Forecasts for All Mobile Money Transfers......... 70

Figure 3.3: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers ($m) p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 70

Table 3.2: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers ($m) p.a. Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016...... 70

Figure 3.4: Comparison of Domestic, Sophisticated Financial Services &
International Mobile Money Transfer Transaction Values (% of total) 2011-2016............. 71

Table 3.3: Comparison of Domestic, Sophisticated Financial Services &
International Mobile Money Transfer Transaction Values (% of total) 2011-2016......... 71

3.5 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity........... 71

Figure 3.5: Total Service Provider Mobile Money Transfer Revenue
Opportunity ($m) p.a.  Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016..... 72

Table 3.4: Total Service Provider Mobile Money Transfer Revenue
Opportunity ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....... 72

Market Attractiveness

4.1 Approach 73

4.2 Domestic Transfers............. 74

Figure 4.1: Market Attractiveness - Domestic Money Transfer Users (m) vs.
CAGR (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions...........  74

Table 4.1: Market Attractiveness - Domestic Money Transfer Users (m) vs.
CAGR (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions............ 74

Figure 4.2: Market Attractiveness - Domestic Money Transfer Transactions
(m) vs. CAGR (%) Split by 8 Key Regions..........  75

Table 4.2: Market Attractiveness - Domestic Money Transfer Transactions
(m) vs. CAGR (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 75

4.3 International Transfers. 76

Figure 4.3: Market Attractiveness - International Money Transfer Users (m)
vs. CAGR (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions   76

Table 4.3: Market Attractiveness - International Money Transfer Users (m)
vs. CAGR (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions   76

Figure 4.4: Market Attractiveness - International Money Transfer
Transactions (m) vs. CAGR (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 77

Table 4.4: Market Attractiveness - International Money Transfer Transactions
(m) vs. CAGR (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 77

Domestic Money Transfer Forecasts

5.1 User Forecasts - Mobile Wallets. 79

5.1.1 Main Trends........... 79

i. Total Domestic Money Transfer Mobile Wallet Users.......... 79

Figure 5.1: Average Number of Active Mobile Wallet Users (m) Making
Domestic Transfers Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016... 80

Table 5.1: Average Number of Active Mobile Wallet Users (m) Making
Domestic Transfers Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 80

ii. Africa & Middle East............. 81

iii. Far East & China,............ 81

iv. Indian Sub-Continent..... 81

v. Rest of Asia Pacific......... 82

vi. Central & Eastern Europe........ 82

vii. Latin American.......... 82

viii. North America & Western Europe........ 82

Figure 5.2: Average Number of Domestic Mobile Money Transfer
Transactions  per Mobile Wallet User p.a.
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....... 83

Table 5.2: Average Number of Domestic Mobile Money Transfer
Transactions  per Mobile Wallet User p.a.
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......... 83

Figure 5.3: Total Number of Domestic Mobile Money Transfer Transactions
(m) p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016        . 84

Table 5.3: Total Number of Domestic Mobile Money Transfer Transactions (m)
p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-201684

5.3 Transaction Size Forecasts......... 85

Table 5.4: Average Domestic Mobile Money Transaction Value ($), Selected
African Countries and Operators 2011...... 85

Figure 5.4: Average Size of Domestic Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016...... 85

Table 5.5: Average Size of Domestic Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016..... 86

5.4 Transaction Value Forecasts............ 86

Figure 5.5: Total Value of Domestic Transactions ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016........... 86

Table 5.6: Total Value of Domestic Transactions ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016.......... 87

5.5 Transaction Value per User Forecasts.. 87

Figure 5.6: Domestic Transaction Value ($) per Mobile Wallet User
p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 87

Table 5.7: Domestic Transaction Value ($) per Mobile Wallet User p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....... 88

5.6 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity Forecast.. 88

Figure 5.7: Service Provider Domestic Mobile Money Transfer Revenue ($m)
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....89

Table 5.8: Service Provider Domestic Mobile Money Transfer Revenue ($m)
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 89

Microcredits, Savings & Insurance Payment Forecasts

6.1 Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Defined..... 90

Figure 6.1: M-KESHO Service.......... 91

6.2 User Forecasts............. 92

Figure 6.2: Average Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services
Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016... 92

Table 6.1: Average Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Users
(m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016. 92

6.3 Transaction Traffic Forecasts 93

Figure 6.3: Average Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........ 93

Table 6.2: Average Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016... 93

Figure 6.4: Total Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 94

Table 6.3: Total Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.... 94

6.4 Transaction Size Forecasts...... 95

Figure 6.5: Average Size of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016.......... 95

Table 6.4: Average Size of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016..........95

6.5 Transaction Value Forecasts 96

Figure 6.6: Total Value of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions p.a. ($m)  Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016.. 96

Table 6.5: Total Value of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Transactions p.a. ($m)  Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016....96

6.6 Transaction Value per User Forecasts......... 97

Figure 6.7: Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transaction Value per
User p.a. ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016............ 97

Table 6.6: Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transaction Value per
User p.a. ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016. 98

6.7 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity Forecast.......... 98

Figure 6.8: Service Provider Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service
Revenue ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016. 98

Table 6.7: Service Provider Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Revenue
($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016. 99

6.8 Incremental Value from Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services... 99

Figure 6.9: Incremental Value from Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services
Compared to Domestic Mobile Money Transfers (%) Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016. 99

Table 6.8: Incremental Value from Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services
Compared to Domestic Mobile Money Transfers (%) Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016........... 100

International Money Transfer Forecasts

7.1 User Forecasts........ 101

Table 7.1: Top 10 Remittance Sending Countries ($m) 2009..... 102

Figure 7.1: Average Number of Mobile Users Sending International Transfers
(m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..... 102

Table 7.2: Average Number of Mobile Users Sending International Transfers
(m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........ 103

7.2 Transaction Size Forecasts....... 103

Figure 7.2: Average Size of International Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016............ 104

Table 7.3: Average Size of International Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016........... 104

7.3 Transaction Traffic Forecasts........... 105

Figure 7.3: Average Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent
per User p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..105

Figure 7.4: Top 20 Migration Corridors Ranked by Migrants (m) in 2010....... 106

Table 7.4: Average Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent per
User p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016.............107

Figure 7.5: Total Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent (m)
p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..107

Table 7.5: Total Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent (m)
p.a.  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........108

7.4 Transaction Value Forecasts....... 108

Figure 7.6: Total Value of International Mobile Money Transactions Sent
p.a. ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016.... 108

Table 7.6: Total Value of International Mobile Money Transactions Sent
p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........ 109

7.5 International Transaction Value per User Forecasts....... 110

Figure 7.7: International Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016....... 110

Table 7.7: International Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016..... 110

7.6 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity Forecast............. 111

Figure 7.8: Service Provider International Mobile Money Transfer Revenue
Forecast ($m)  2011-2016.............111

Table 7.8: Service Provider International Mobile Money Transfer Revenue
Forecast ($m)  2011-2016...112

Vendors, Strategies & Applications

8.1 Introduction........... 113

8.2 Vendor Positioning 113

8.2.1 Vendor Assessment Methodology............ 113

Table 8.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Criteria........ 114

8.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation............. 114

8.2.3 New Positioning Matrix Results........... 115

Figure 8.1: Global Mobile Money Vendor Positioning Matrix.......... 115

8.2.4 Vendor Groupings....... 116

8.2.5 Strategy Conclusions - Corporate Activity 117

8.3 Company Brief: Accenture......... 118

i. Corporate........... 118

ii. Geographic Spread......... 118

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships....... 118

iv. High Level View of Offerings............. 119

v. Juniper's View: Accenture Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities...... 119

8.4 Company Brief: Alcatel-Lucent............. 120

i. Corporate.. 120

ii. Geographic Spread......... 120

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..... 120

iv. High Level View of Offerings.......... 121

v. Juniper's View: Alcatel-Lucent Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities... 121

8.5 Company Brief: Comviva............. 121

i. Corporate.. 121

ii. Geographic Spread 121

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships......... 122

iv. High Level View of Offerings...... 122

v. Juniper's View: Comviva Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities.. 122

8.6 Company Brief: DonRiver............ 123

i. Corporate........... 123

ii. Geographic Spread. 123

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..... 123

iv. High Level View of Offerings 124

v. Juniper's View: DonRiver Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities..... 124

8.7 Company Brief: eServGlobal.... 124

i. Corporate......... 124

ii. Geographic Spread....... 125

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships.... 125

iv. High Level View of Offerings...... 125

v. Juniper's View: eServGlobal Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities. 125

8.8 Company Brief: Fundamo/Visa. 126

i. Corporate... 126

ii. Geographic Spread... 126

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships... 126

iv. High Level View of Offerings... 127

v. Juniper's View: Fundamo Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities.......... 128

8.9 Company Brief: Gemalto.... 129

i. Corporate. 129

ii. Geographic Spread..... 129

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships.......... 129

iv. High Level View of Offerings.... 130

v. Juniper's View: Gemalto Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities............ 130

8.10 Company Brief: LUUP.. 131

i. Corporate.. 131

ii. Geographic Spread...... 131

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..... 131

iv. High Level View of Offerings. 132

v. Juniper's View: Luup Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities........... 132

8.11 Company Brief: mChek.... 133

i. Corporate....... 133

ii. Geographic Spread.... 133

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships. 133

iv. High Level View of Offerings. 133

v. Juniper's View: mChek Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities........ 133

8.12 Company Brief: Monitise. 134

i. Corporate....... 134

ii. Geographic Spread.... 134

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships. 134

iv. High Level View of Offerings. 135

v. Juniper's View: Monitise Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities..... 135

8.13 Company Brief: Nokia...... 136

i. Corporate....... 136

ii. Geographic Spread.... 136

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships. 137

iv. High Level View of Offerings. 137

v. Juniper's View: Nokia Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities.......... 137

8.14 Company Brief: SAP/Sybase 365. 138

i. Corporate....... 138

ii. Geographic Spread.... 138

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships. 138

iv. High Level View of Offerings. 139

v. Juniper's View: SAP/Sybase 365 Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities..... 139