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United States Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 205 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decadedespite the fall in oil prices. High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-yearforecast period, reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for lightsweet crude, and lower oil prices dampening some production. Consumption of fuels will be largelystagnant throughout the course of the next decade as energy efficiency gains take root. In the gas market,we forecast a ramp-up in production when demand gears up from 2016 onwards as new LNG exportfacilities and petrochemical plants come online.

- We have downgraded our US oil production forecast as continued downside pressure on oilprices restrains investment into unconventional plays. Falling oil prices, especially on the WTI contract,have begun to pressure developments in the core of the US oil industry. As efficiency gains dwindle, wenow expect the decline in shale output will outweigh gains from deepwater projects in 2016, resulting ina contraction for the year. With prices now trading below USD45/bbl, we caution that even moreprofitable 'sweet spot' areas will suffer from declines over the coming quarters.

- Milder weather conditions are the main contributing factor to weakened demand for natural gas,prompting further downside in Henry Hub (HH) benchmark prices. Trading below USD2.10/mn BritishThermal Unit (BTU) one month into the traditional heading season. We believe the benchmark is testingmulti-year support at around USD2.00/mnBTU. We expect the benchmark will hold this support beforefalling temperatures encourage a seasonal rebound.

Table Of Contents

United States Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United States 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 15
Table: US - Major Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Oil Production (United States 2013-2018) 43
Table: Oil Production (United States 2019-2024) 43
Upstream Production - Gas 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Gas Production (United States 2013-2018) 47
Table: Gas Production (United States 2019-2024) 47
Refining 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 48
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2013-2018) 50
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2019-2024) 50
Refined Fuels Consumption 51
Latest Updates 51
Structural Trends: 51
Table: Final Renewable Fuel Volumes 55
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2013-2018) 56
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2019-2024) 57
Gas Consumption 57
Latest Updates 57
Structural Trends: 57
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2013-2018) 60
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2019-2024) 61
Trade - Oil 61
Latest Updates 61
Structural Trends 61
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2013-2019) 63
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2019-2024) 64
Latest Updates 64
Structural Trends 64
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2013-2018) 66
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2019-2024) 66
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 66
Latest Updates 66
Structural Trends 67
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2013-2018) 70
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2019-2024) 70
Industry Risk Reward Index 71
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 71
Table: North America and Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index, out of 100 71
Upstream Rankings: North America To Maintain The Lead 72
North America: Canada Losing Its Edge 72
Western Europe Languishes In Maturing Assets 73
Table: North America and Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index, out of 100 75
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead 75
Table: North America and Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index, out of 100 77
Unites States - Risk/Reward Index 77
Market Overview 80
United States Energy Market Overview 80
Licensing And Regulation 80
Government Policy 83
Licensing Rounds 88
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017 88
Table: 2016-2017 Lease Sale Schedule 89
International Energy Relations 91
Table: Key Upstream Players 92
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 96
Oil Refineries 96
Table: New US Refineries 98
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions 101
Table: Refineries In the US 102
Service Stations 107
Oil Storage Facilities 108
Oil Terminals/Ports 108
Oil Pipelines 109
Table: US Crude Oil Pipelines Online/Planned, 2012-2014 110
LNG Terminals 113
Table: LNG Terminals In the US 113
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects 118
Gas Storage Facilities 119
Gas Pipelines 119
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines 121
Competitive Landscape 125
Competitive Landscape Summary 125
Table: Key Upstream Players 128
Table: Key Downstream Players 128
Company Profile 129
Anadarko 129
BP America 134
Chevron 143
ConocoPhillips 150
ExxonMobil 157
Shell USA 165
Other Summaries 173
Regional Overview 184
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 184
Table: North America, Key Regional Indicators 195
Table: Western Europe, Key Regional Indicators 196
Glossary 198
Table: Glossary Of Terms 198
Methodology 200
Industry Forecast Methodology 200
Source 202
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 202
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 204
Table: Weighting 205

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