1. Market Research
  2. > Construction Market Trends
  3. > Sweden Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Sweden Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • December 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 44 pages

Core Views

Sweden’s status as an open trade-oriented economy means that its growth prospects will depend heavily upon a continued recovery in the rest of Europe.
The outlook for business investment and exports will improve, but will be restrained alongside a poor recovery in the eurozone economy. The coalition government led by the Social Democrats that was elected in September 2014 is in a precarious position due to its minority status in parliament. We expect a shift in government policy toward greater state interventionism, including tax hikes and a rise in government spending.

Major Forecast Changes

We have lowered our end-year repo rate forecasts to 0.00% in both 2014 and 2015, and to 0.75% in 2016 (from 0.25%, 0.50%, and 1.25%, respectively).

Table Of Contents

Sweden Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Centre-Left Government Faces Stern Test Of Mandate In Budget Vote 8
Sweden's centre-left government, which came in to office on October 3, faces an early test of its mandate in a budget vote scheduled for
December 3. We believe that the budget will pass, despite the government's minority status in parliament, but the risk of a new election
is significant.
Table: Political Outlook 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Stability Assured Over Long Term 10
With a long-term political risk score of 94.5 (out of 100), Sweden is among the most structurally stable countries in the world. Benefiting
from an advanced level of institutional development, a long history of democratic governance and an established foreign policy based
on neutrality, the country faces limited underlying risks to political stability over the long term. However, the rise of a populist antiimmigration
movement poses risks to both governance and Swedish civil society.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Growth To Remain Limited By External Weakness 14
Strong domestic demand has helped Sweden weather weak global conditions over the past few years, and household consumption will
continue to drive growth. A rebound in business investment will help mitigate headwinds that will slow consumption growth in 2015-16,
including falling consumer confidence, a weakening currency, and tightening mortgage regulations.
Table: GDP By Expenditure 14
Monetary Policy 16
SEK: Modest Upside Versus Euro 16
The Swedish krona will appreciate modestly versus the euro in the next two years, but depreciate against the US dollar. Although the
central bank has adopted a zero interest rate policy due to rising signs of deflation, the Swedish economy remains a relative growth
outperformer among developed markets, the krona's valuation is reasonably competitive, and monetary policy overseas will likely
become even looser in coming quarters.
Balance Of Payments 18
External Surpluses To Narrow Further 18
Although Sweden will continue to enjoy current account surpluses over the forecast period to 2018, the trade balance will narrow further
as European demand remains subdued and domestic consumption remains relatively strong. We project the current account balance to
decline from 5.9 % of GDP in 2014 to 5.1% in 2018.
Table: Current Account 19
Business Monitor International Ltd www.businessmonitor.com 3
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Swedish Economy To 2023 21
Well-Positioned For The Long Term 21
Sweden is among the most strategically well-positioned economies in the developed world, and this is reflected in our 10-year growth
forecasts, which expect steady expansion through to 2023. The balance of payments is extremely stable and will be buoyed by a robust
current account surplus, fiscal dynamics are among the best in Europe, and the country will continue to benefit from a highly productive
workforce over the long term.
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 23
Operational Risk Index 23
Operational Risk 24
Table: Developed States - Labour Market Risk 24
Table: Developed States - Logistics Risk 27
Table: Developed States - Crime And Security Risks 29
Table: Developed States - Trade And Investment Risk 32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 35
Infrastructure 35
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 35
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 36
Other Key Sectors 41
tab le: Phar ma Sector Key Indicators 41
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators 41
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators 42
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators 42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 43
Global Outlook 43
Warning Signs Growing 43
Table: Global Assumptions 43
Tab le: Developed States , Rea l GDP Growt H, % 44
Tab le: Emergi ng Markets , Rea l GDP Growth , % 45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Sandwich Panels in Europe

Sandwich Panels in Europe

  • $ 32 500
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Interconnection Consulting Group

The report IC Market Tracking Sandwich Panels analyzes the market of Sandwich Panels and the manufacturers. You get an overview of the development of the total market and the individual segments for example ...

Non-Residential Air Conditioners Europe

Non-Residential Air Conditioners Europe

  • $ 28 875
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Interconnection Consulting Group

The report IC Market Tracking Non-Residential Air Conditioners analyzes the market of Non-Residential Air Conditioners and the manufacturers of these products. You get an overview of the development of ...

Rubber Conveyor Belt Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

Rubber Conveyor Belt Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

  • $ 24 326
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Global Research & Data Services

The expansion of the global rubber conveyor belt industry is forecast to reach 3.5% p.a. in the coming years. Between 2009 and 2015 the market increased with an average annual growth of 4.7%. Currently, ...


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.