Solar Photovoltaic Market Report 2007

Solar Photovoltaic Market Report 2007

The solar PV market continued to grow in 2007, both in installed capacity and production although it was held back by a worldwide shortage of solar grade silicon. Opinions differ within the industry as to the future duration of this shortage and these are discussed in the report. 2006 and 2007 have been significant, with the entry of an important new player in the global market, China. Chinese solar PV companies have developed very fast and a number have conducted IPOs in China and other countries. A mushrooming production capacity for solar cells and modules has been accompanied by growing production and re-cycling of silicon. Domestic demand in China has not kept pace and it is an export oriented industry to date. Germany, followed by Japan and the USA still remains the global leader, but new countries are entering the market and the industry is spreading beyond its historical areas. These developments have been accompanied by some uncertainty because of a breakdown in the statistical recording system in Germany, the largest market, with half the world's installed capacity.

• The report provides data up to the end of 2006 and available information for 2007

• Germany has consolidated its position as the largest solar PV market, followed by Japan and the USA

• The dramatic emergence of China as a world player, with ambitious expansion plans for Solar PV

• There has been a surge of IPOs in the solar PV industry, with many Chinese and US start-ups seeking capital

• The silicon shortage continued and is evaluated, the future outlook discussed

• New feedstock technologies and sources are emerging to combat the global silicon shortage

• Continued entries of large Japanese corporations into the solar market

• Big plans for Japanese and German companies, with large production expansion

• At least five companies have staked their position to become the “world leader”

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 13
Overview of the solar PV market in 2006 .................................................................................................. 13
Market leaders ......................................................................................................................................... 13
Silicon feedstock ...................................................................................................................................... 14
Silicon producers...................................................................................................................................... 15
Solar PV technology................................................................................................................................. 15
Capacity expansion for solar PV cells and modules................................................................................. 16
End-use of solar PV ................................................................................................................................. 16
USA.............................................................................................................................................................. 17
Europe ......................................................................................................................................................... 18
Germany................................................................................................................................................... 18
Rest of the World........................................................................................................................................ 19
China........................................................................................................................................................ 19
Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................ 20

2. INTRODUCTION TO SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS .................................................. 21
Solar energy................................................................................................................................................ 21
Solar thermal............................................................................................................................................... 21
Solar photovoltaics .................................................................................................................................... 21
Solar cell development ............................................................................................................................... 22
Concentrator cells .................................................................................................................................... 23
Conditions of use of solar PV cells ........................................................................................................... 23
Solar insolation........................................................................................................................................... 24
Cold weather ............................................................................................................................................... 24
Cloud conditions ........................................................................................................................................ 24
Isolated generation..................................................................................................................................... 24
PV and the environment ............................................................................................................................. 25

3. APPLICATIONS OF SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGY................................................... 26
Simple PV systems..................................................................................................................................... 26
Buildings as energy systems and collectors of solar energy ................................................................ 26
PV with battery storage .............................................................................................................................. 27
Balance of system: storage........................................................................................................................ 27
PV with generators..................................................................................................................................... 28
PV connected to utilities............................................................................................................................ 28
Utility-scale power...................................................................................................................................... 28
Hybrid power systems ............................................................................................................................... 29
Distributed generation ............................................................................................................................... 30

4. PV INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN................................................................................ 32
Feedstock.................................................................................................................................................... 32
Polysilicon ................................................................................................................................................ 32
Thin film technology ................................................................................................................................. 32
Ingot and wafer production....................................................................................................................... 33
Solar cell and modules ............................................................................................................................... 33
Balance of system (BOS)........................................................................................................................... 34
Vertically integrated companies ................................................................................................................ 34

5. PHOTOVOLTAIC FEEDSTOCK - SILICON............................................................ 35
Overview...................................................................................................................................................... 35
Production and prospects for polysilicon, 2006 to 2010......................................................................... 35
Cost pressure on feedstock process ........................................................................................................ 38
Silicon prices .............................................................................................................................................. 38
Electronic grade silicon producers ........................................................................................................... 39
Dedicated photovoltaic grade silicon production.................................................................................... 39
Silicon recycling ......................................................................................................................................... 40
Companies involved in recycling silicon.................................................................................................. 40
SolarWorld................................................................................................................................................ 40
Silicon Recycling Services (SRS) ............................................................................................................. 41
ReneSola.................................................................................................................................................. 41
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)............................................................. 41
Poseidon Chemical .................................................................................................................................. 41
GE Energy................................................................................................................................................ 41
Ergon Solair-Wonlextech Group ............................................................................................................... 41
Silicon recycling future development ........................................................................................................ 41

6. THIS FILM PHOTOVOLTAICS (TFPV) ................................................................... 43
Alternative thin film materials .................................................................................................................... 43
Thin film producers.................................................................................................................................... 43
First Solar................................................................................................................................................. 43
Shell Solar................................................................................................................................................ 43
Sharp........................................................................................................................................................ 44
Fuji Electric............................................................................................................................................... 44
Sanyo ....................................................................................................................................................... 44
Uni-Solar .................................................................................................................................................. 44
G24i Innovations Ltd. ............................................................................................................................... 45
Honda....................................................................................................................................................... 45
HelioVolt................................................................................................................................................... 45
NanoSolar ................................................................................................................................................ 45
Ascent Solar............................................................................................................................................. 45
Solibro AB ................................................................................................................................................ 45


7. INSTALLED SOLAR PV GENERATING CAPACITY.............................................. 46
Germany ...................................................................................................................................................... 48
Japan ........................................................................................................................................................... 49
United States............................................................................................................................................... 50
China............................................................................................................................................................ 51
India ............................................................................................................................................................. 52
Austria ......................................................................................................................................................... 53
France.......................................................................................................................................................... 54
Italy............................................................................................................................................................... 55
Spain............................................................................................................................................................ 56
Netherlands................................................................................................................................................. 57
Australia ...................................................................................................................................................... 58
Canada......................................................................................................................................................... 59
Mexico ......................................................................................................................................................... 60
Korea............................................................................................................................................................ 61

8. INSTALLED SOLAR PV CAPACITY PROJECTION TO 2010 ............................... 64

9. PRODUCTION OF SOLAR PV CELLS ................................................................... 66
Production capacity MW............................................................................................................................. 66

10. MANUFACTURERS OF SOLAR PV ....................................................................... 68
Solar photovoltaic manufacturers............................................................................................................. 69

11. NATIONAL SOLAR INDUSTRIES AND COMPANY PROFILES............................ 70
Japan ........................................................................................................................................................... 70
Production of silicon feedstock, ingots and wafers for solar cells ....................................................... 70
Tokuyama................................................................................................................................................. 70
Mitsubishi Materials Corporation............................................................................................................... 70
Sumitomo Titanium Corporation ............................................................................................................... 70
M. Setek ................................................................................................................................................... 70
JF Steel .................................................................................................................................................... 70
Kawasaki Steel......................................................................................................................................... 70
Shin-Etsu Handotai .................................................................................................................................. 70
Sumco Corporation .................................................................................................................................. 71
Manufacture of solar cells and modules................................................................................................... 71
Sharp Corporation.................................................................................................................................... 71
Kyocera .................................................................................................................................................... 72
Sanyo Electric Company.......................................................................................................................... 73
MSK Corporation...................................................................................................................................... 74
Mitsubishi Electric .................................................................................................................................... 75
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ...................................................................................................................... 75
Kaneka Solartech..................................................................................................................................... 75
Canon....................................................................................................................................................... 76
Fuji Electric............................................................................................................................................... 76
Hitachi ...................................................................................................................................................... 76
Honda....................................................................................................................................................... 76
Matsushita Ecology Systems .................................................................................................................... 77
Showa Shell Sekiyu ................................................................................................................................. 77
Kobelco (Kobe Steel) ............................................................................................................................... 77
Housing construction companies .............................................................................................................. 77
Daiwa House Group................................................................................................................................. 78
Misawa Homes......................................................................................................................................... 78
Sekisui Heim ............................................................................................................................................ 78
PanaHome Corporation ............................................................................................................................ 78
United States............................................................................................................................................... 79
Production of silicon feedstock, ingots and wafers for solar cells ....................................................... 79
REC Silicon .............................................................................................................................................. 79
Hemlock Semiconductor ........................................................................................................................... 79
MEMC Electronic Materials...................................................................................................................... 79
Hoku Scientific ......................................................................................................................................... 79
Global PV Specialists............................................................................................................................... 79
Production of photovoltaic cells and modules ........................................................................................ 80
GT Solar................................................................................................................................................... 80
USA cell and module companies............................................................................................................... 80
First Solar................................................................................................................................................. 80
United Solar OVONICS............................................................................................................................ 80
BP - Solar (formerly BP Solarex in the United States).............................................................................. 80
Shell Solar (USA-formerly Siemens Solar Industries................................................................................ 81
Schott Solar (formerly RWE Scott, and previously ASE Americas).......................................................... 81
GE ............................................................................................................................................................ 81
Evergreen Solar ....................................................................................................................................... 82
SunPower Corporation............................................................................................................................. 82
Ebara Solar .............................................................................................................................................. 83
Solec International ................................................................................................................................... 83
United Solar Systems Corporation (USSC) .............................................................................................. 83
EPV Energy Photovoltaics Inc. ................................................................................................................. 83
Amonix ..................................................................................................................................................... 83
Entech ...................................................................................................................................................... 84
Akeena Solar, Inc. (AKNS.OB) ................................................................................................................. 84
Germany ...................................................................................................................................................... 85
Production of silicon feedstock, ingots and wafers for solar cells ....................................................... 85
Wacker-Chemie AG ................................................................................................................................. 85
Joint Solar Silicon GmbH.......................................................................................................................... 85
Deutsche Solar AG .................................................................................................................................. 85
Other German silicon producers ............................................................................................................... 85
German producers of solar cells and modules........................................................................................ 85
Q-Cells ..................................................................................................................................................... 85
Schott Solar (formerly RWE Schott Solar) ................................................................................................ 86
SolarWorld AG ......................................................................................................................................... 86
Shell Solar................................................................................................................................................ 87
BP Solar ................................................................................................................................................... 87
Solarwatt .................................................................................................................................................. 87
ErSol......................................................................................................................................................... 87
Sunways AG ............................................................................................................................................ 88
Ever-Q...................................................................................................................................................... 88
Würth Solar GmbH................................................................................................................................... 88
Spain............................................................................................................................................................ 89
Production of silicon ................................................................................................................................. 89
Spanish producers of solar cells and modules ....................................................................................... 89
Isofoton..................................................................................................................................................... 89
BP Solar Espana...................................................................................................................................... 89
France.......................................................................................................................................................... 90
Photowatt International ............................................................................................................................. 90
Tenesol..................................................................................................................................................... 90
Free Energy Europe S.A. .......................................................................................................................... 90
Solems S.A. ............................................................................................................................................. 90
Italy............................................................................................................................................................... 91
Eurosolare SA.......................................................................................................................................... 91
Helios ....................................................................................................................................................... 91
Denmark ...................................................................................................................................................... 91
Belgium ....................................................................................................................................................... 91
Photovoltech ............................................................................................................................................ 91
Netherlands................................................................................................................................................. 91
Norway......................................................................................................................................................... 92
REC (Renewable Energy Corporation)..................................................................................................... 92
Elkem ....................................................................................................................................................... 92
Austria ......................................................................................................................................................... 94
PVT Austria .............................................................................................................................................. 94
SED.......................................................................................................................................................... 94
Powerquant .............................................................................................................................................. 94
Ertex Solar................................................................................................................................................ 94
Fronius International ................................................................................................................................ 94
Isovolta AG............................................................................................................................................... 94
Sweden ........................................................................................................................................................ 95
Gällivare PhotoVoltaic AB ......................................................................................................................... 95
Solibro AB ................................................................................................................................................ 95
ArcticSolar AB.......................................................................................................................................... 95
ScanModule AB ....................................................................................................................................... 95
Portugal ....................................................................................................................................................... 95
Belgium ....................................................................................................................................................... 95
Photovoltech ............................................................................................................................................ 95
Switzerland.................................................................................................................................................. 96
United Kingdom.......................................................................................................................................... 96
Production of silicon feedstock, ingots and wafers for solar cells ....................................................... 96
PV Crystalox Solar PLC............................................................................................................................ 96
PowerFilm, Inc. ........................................................................................................................................ 96
Producers of cells and modules................................................................................................................ 97
Sharp........................................................................................................................................................ 97
ICP Solar Technologies UK Ltd. ............................................................................................................... 97
Romag...................................................................................................................................................... 97
China............................................................................................................................................................ 98
Production of silicon feedstock, ingots and wafers for solar cells ....................................................... 98
Emei Semiconductor Material ................................................................................................................... 98
Luoyang Zhonggui ................................................................................................................................... 98
Sichuan Xinguang .................................................................................................................................... 98
Companies producing silicon coming on stream in 2008....................................................................... 99
Asia Silicon Co., Qinghai.......................................................................................................................... 99
Jiangsu Zhongneng PV Technology Development Co. Ltd. ..................................................................... 99
CSG Holding ............................................................................................................................................ 99
Jinyi Silicon (GINET) ................................................................................................................................ 99
Ningxia Solar............................................................................................................................................ 99
Shangxin Silicon....................................................................................................................................... 99
Aixin Silicon Sci-Tech Industrial Park ....................................................................................................... 99
Tongwei and Juxing ................................................................................................................................. 99
Ingot and wafer producers ....................................................................................................................... 100
Yangguang Solar ................................................................................................................................... 100
LDK Solar High Tech Co......................................................................................................................... 100
Jiangsu Shunda ..................................................................................................................................... 101
Renesola Ltd. ......................................................................................................................................... 101
Xi'an Longji Silicon Industry Group ......................................................................................................... 101
GT Solar Technologies ........................................................................................................................... 101
Producers of solar cells and modules ..................................................................................................... 101
Suntech Power Co. Ltd. .......................................................................................................................... 102
Baodiang Tianwei Yingli Green Energy Solar Company ........................................................................ 103
China Sunergy ....................................................................................................................................... 103
Nanjing CEEG PV-Tech (NPV)............................................................................................................... 103
China Xianjiang SunOasis Ltd. ............................................................................................................... 103
BP SunOasis.......................................................................................................................................... 103
Ningbo Solar Electric Power Co. Ltd....................................................................................................... 103
Jiangsu Shunda PV Tech Co. Ltd........................................................................................................... 103
CEEG Shanghai Solar Energy Science and Technology Co. Ltd. ......................................................... 104
Trina Solar Limited (TSL)........................................................................................................................ 104
Jiangsu Linyang Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF) ................................................................................ 104
J A Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (JASO)........................................................................................................ 104
Jinggong (P-D) Shaoxing Solar Energy Technology Co. Ltd.................................................................. 104
Jiansu Sunshine Group.......................................................................................................................... 104
Wuhan Rixin Technology Co. Ltd. .......................................................................................................... 105
China Solar Power (Holdings) Ltd. (CSP)............................................................................................... 105
Other solar PV companies ...................................................................................................................... 105
Taiwan ....................................................................................................................................................... 106
Motech Solar .......................................................................................................................................... 106
E-TON Solartech Co. Ltd. ....................................................................................................................... 106
Green Energy Technology (GET) ........................................................................................................... 106
Gintech................................................................................................................................................... 107
Sinonar Corp. ......................................................................................................................................... 107
Big Sun Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 107
Del Solar................................................................................................................................................. 107
India ........................................................................................................................................................... 107
Central Electronics Ltd. (CEL) ................................................................................................................ 107
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL) ..................................................................................................... 107
Rajasthan Electricals & Instruments Ltd. (REIL)..................................................................................... 107
Tata BP Solar India Ltd. .......................................................................................................................... 107
Australia .................................................................................................................................................... 108
BP Solar ................................................................................................................................................. 108
Dyesol Ltd. ............................................................................................................................................. 108
Canada....................................................................................................................................................... 109
Canadian Solar Inc................................................................................................................................. 109
First Solar, Inc. ....................................................................................................................................... 109
ICP Solarl Technologies......................................................................................................................... 109
Photowatt Technologies, Inc................................................................................................................... 109
Korea.......................................................................................................................................................... 110
Neskor Solar Co..................................................................................................................................... 110
Kyungdong Photovoltaic Energy Co. Ltd. (KPE) .................................................................................... 110
KD Solar Co. .......................................................................................................................................... 110
S-energy Co. .......................................................................................................................................... 110
BP DonhgHae ........................................................................................................................................ 110
LG Industrial System Co. ........................................................................................................................ 110

12. NATIONAL TARGETS AND INCENTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY........... 111
Renewable energy targets ...................................................................................................................... 111
Feed-in tariffs and RPS........................................................................................................................... 116
EU and feed-in tariffs .............................................................................................................................. 117
US and RPS........................................................................................................................................... 117
The feed-in tariff in Europe...................................................................................................................... 117

13. SUPPORT PROGRAMMES FOR SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS............................. 119
US Federal and State incentives.............................................................................................................. 119
Federal tax incentives August 2007........................................................................................................ 120
SEIA Roadmap ...................................................................................................................................... 120
Photovoltaics technology plan................................................................................................................. 120
Fundamental research ............................................................................................................................ 120
Advanced materials and devices ............................................................................................................ 120
Technology development....................................................................................................................... 120
Objectives of the programme.................................................................................................................. 120
Near - term goals ................................................................................................................................... 121
Long - term goals ................................................................................................................................... 121
Japan ......................................................................................................................................................... 122
Prices ..................................................................................................................................................... 122
R&D Strategies ...................................................................................................................................... 122
Third Science and Technology Basic Plan (2006 to 2010)..................................................................... 123
Long term targets after year 2010........................................................................................................... 123
Subsidy programme for residential PV systems ..................................................................................... 123
Europe ....................................................................................................................................................... 124
Germany .................................................................................................................................................... 124
Industry support ..................................................................................................................................... 124
National programme for consumers........................................................................................................ 124
Research, development and demonstration ........................................................................................... 124
Crystalline silicon (Basic material R&D - cell and module development) ............................................... 125
Finland....................................................................................................................................................... 125
France........................................................................................................................................................ 125
Future development ............................................................................................................................... 125
Italy............................................................................................................................................................. 126
Netherlands............................................................................................................................................... 126
Research and development .................................................................................................................... 127
Norway....................................................................................................................................................... 128
Research and development .................................................................................................................... 128
Spain.......................................................................................................................................................... 128
Research and development .................................................................................................................... 129
Switzerland................................................................................................................................................ 130
Research, development and demonstration ........................................................................................... 130
Implementation....................................................................................................................................... 130
United Kingdom........................................................................................................................................ 131
The UK’s National PV Programme consists of the following elements: ................................................. 131
Research, development and demonstration ........................................................................................... 131
Applications............................................................................................................................................ 132
Australia .................................................................................................................................................... 133
Canada....................................................................................................................................................... 134
National programme............................................................................................................................... 134
Government buildings ............................................................................................................................. 134
Research and development .................................................................................................................... 134
China.......................................................................................................................................................... 136
India ........................................................................................................................................................... 137
Indonesia................................................................................................................................................... 138
Israel .......................................................................................................................................................... 139
Solar PV development ............................................................................................................................ 139
Projects .................................................................................................................................................. 140
Industry involvement ............................................................................................................................... 140
Research and development .................................................................................................................... 140
Kenya......................................................................................................................................................... 141
Korea.......................................................................................................................................................... 142
Research, development and demonstration ........................................................................................... 142
Industry status........................................................................................................................................ 142
South Africa .............................................................................................................................................. 143
PV programmes ..................................................................................................................................... 143
National Electrification Programme......................................................................................................... 143
Thailand..................................................................................................................................................... 144

14. PRICES.................................................................................................................. 145

15. FORECASTING A NEW TECHNOLOGY.............................................................. 148
Experience curves and progress ratios (PR) ......................................................................................... 148

16. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...................................................................................... 149

Tables of Figures
Figure 2.1: Global insolation levels ............................................................................................................... 24
Figure 3.1: Distribution network conventional ............................................................................................... 30
Figure 3.2: Distribution network – with distributed generation ...................................................................... 31
Figure 5.1: Production of electronic polysilicon annually from 2004 to 2010, metric tons (MT).................... 37
Figure 7.1: Installed global solar PV generating capacity 1990 to 2006 by application................................ 46
Figure 7.2: Global installed solar PV capacity............................................................................................... 47
Figure 7.3: Installed global solar PV generating capacity 1990 to 2006 by country ..................................... 47
Figure 7.4: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Germany, 1990 to 2006 by application...................... 48
Figure 7.5: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Japan, 1990 to 2006 by application........................... 49
Figure 7.6: Installed solar PV generating capacity of the United States, 1990 to 2006 by application......... 50
Figure 7.7: Installed solar PV generating capacity of China 1990 to 2006 by application ............................ 51
Figure 7.8: Installed solar PV generating capacity of India 1990 to 2006..................................................... 52
Figure 7.9: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Austria 1990 to 2006 by application .......................... 53
Figure 7.10: Installed solar PV generating capacity of France 1990 to 2006 by application ........................ 54
Figure 7.11: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Italy, 1990 to 2006 by application............................ 55
Figure 7.12: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Spain 1990 to 2006 by application .......................... 56
Figure 7.13: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Netherlands to 1990 to 2006 by application............ 57
Figure 7.14: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Australia, 1990 to 2006 by application .................... 58
Figure 7.15: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Canada, 1990 to 2006 by application...................... 59
Figure 7.16: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Mexico, 1990 to 2006 by application ....................... 60
Figure 7.17: Installed solar PV generating capacity of Korea, 1990 to 2006 by application......................... 61
Figure 8.1: Installed solar PV capacity, MW, 1990-2010 .............................................................................. 64
Figure 8.2: Installed capacity in the low forecast by region, MW, 1990 to 2010........................................... 65
Figure 9.1: Production of solar PV cells 1990 to 2006, MW.......................................................................... 66
Figure 10.1: Production of solar cells by country, 1990 to 2006, MW........................................................... 68
Figure 10.2: Growth of capacity by manufacturers, 2005 to 2007 ................................................................ 69
Figure 11.1: Sanyo Solar Ark ........................................................................................................................ 74
Figure 14.1: Price compared with shipments 1975-2006 $/watt ................................................................. 145
Figure 15.1: Price experience curve for PV modules.................................................................................. 148
Table 5.1: Production of electronic polysilicon in 2006 and 2010, metric tons (MT)..................................... 37
Table 5.2: Recycled silicon grades................................................................................................................ 40
Table 7.1: World Solar PV installed generating capacity, MW, 1990, 1995 to 2006 .................................... 62
Table 9.1: Solar PV production capacity 2002 to 2007, MW......................................................................... 67
Table 11.1: Polysilicon manufacturing projects, September, 2007 ............................................................. 100
Table 11.2: Solar PV cell and module manufacturers in China, MW .......................................................... 102
Table 12.1 Renewables targets and support mechanisms of European countries, EU and non-EU ......... 111
Table 12.2 Non-European countries with renewable energy targets and plans ......................................... 115
Table 14.1: Indicative module prices (current prices) in national currencies per watt in selected countries,
1992-2004.......................................................................................................................................... 146
Table 14.2: Indicative installed system prices in euro and US$ in selected countries in 2004 $/W........... 147