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East Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 145 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Q1 2016 East Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomicdevelopments within the telecommunications markets in Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudanand Sudan These six markets are characterised by several challenging business dynamics, including lowconsumer spending power, high infrastructure costs, large rural populations with poor access and, somecases, politically volatile environments Limited competition in several of these markets, along withunfavourable fiscal regimes, creates considerable downside risks to market growth 3G and 4G subscriberpenetration rates, as well as their share of total mobile subscriber bases, are expected to remain among thelowest in the world for the foreseeable future

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- Average mobile market growth in the six countries in FY15 was 93% Burundi recorded the highestmobile subscriber growth rate, which was largely due to the launch of services and strong growth reputedby Vietnam's Viettel Full year growth for Burundi was estimated at almost 67% However, it is thoughtthat large numbers of Viettel's customers may not be active Average mobile penetration among the sixcountries was 469% at the end of December 2015 Rwanda had the highest penetration rate at 757% andEthiopia the lowest at 264%

- 3G and 4G customers represented 159% of total mobile subscribers at the end of 2015 This figure ispredicted to rise to 23% in 2019

- Average monthly ARPU remained below USD3 in 2015 Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of morethan USD5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-USD35 ARPUs

Table Of Contents

East Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
Burundi 12
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Burundi 2012-2019) 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Ethiopia 16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ethiopia 2012-2019) 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Malawi 19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Malawi 2012-2019) 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 20
Rwanda 22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Rwanda 2012-2019) 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
South Sudan 26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Sudan 2012-2019) 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 27
Sudan 29
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2019) 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Industry Risk Reward Index 32
Table: Sub-saharan Africa Telecoms RRI - Q116 35
Market Overview 37
Burundi 37
Market Drivers and Trends 37
Mobile 37
Wireline Voice and Broadband 41
Pay TV/Convergence 43
Ethiopia 44
Market Drivers and Trends 44
Mobile 45
Wireline Voice and Broadband 50
Pay TV/Convergence 53
Malawi 53
Market Drivers and Trends 53
Mobile 54
Wireline Voice and Broadband 59
Pay TV/Convergence 60
Rwanda 61
Market Drivers and Trends 61
Mobile 62
Wireline Voice and Broadband 69
Pay TV/Convergence 72
South Sudan 73
Market Drivers and Trends 73
Mobile 73
Wireline Voice and Broadband 78
Pay TV/Convergence 79
Sudan 79
Market Drivers and Trends 79
Mobile 80
Wireline Voice and Broadband 87
Pay TV/Convergence 88
Regulatory Development 89
Regulatory Overview 89
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment 89
Burundi 89
Ethiopia 90
Malawi 91
Rwanda 92
South Sudan 93
Sudan 94
Company Profile 95
Zain Sudan 95
Sudatel 100
MTN 104
Table: MTN Indicators, 2013-2014 107
Airtel Africa 109
Demographic Forecast 114
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Burundi 1990-2025) 115
Table: Key Population Ratios (Burundi 1990-2025) 115
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Burundi 1990-2025) 116
Table: Population By Age Group (Burundi 1990-2025) 116
Table: Population By Age Group % (Burundi 1990-2025) 117
Demographic Forecast 119
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 120
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 120
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 121
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 121
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 122
Demographic Forecast 124
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malawi 1990-2025) 125
Table: Key Population Ratios (Malawi 1990-2025) 125
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Malawi 1990-2025) 126
Table: Population By Age Group (Malawi 1990-2025) 126
Table: Population By Age Group % (Malawi 1990-2025) 127
Demographic Forecast 129
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Rwanda 1990-2025) 130
Table: Key Population Ratios (Rwanda 1990-2025) 130
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Rwanda 1990-2025) 131
Table: Population By Age Group (Rwanda 1990-2025) 131
Table: Population By Age Group % (Rwanda 1990-2025) 132
Sudan Demographic Forecast 134
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sudan 1990-2025) 135
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sudan 1990-2025) 135
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Sudan 1990-2025) 136
Table: Population By Age Group (Sudan 1990-2025) 136
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sudan 1990-2025) 137
Glossary 139
Table: Glossary Of Terms 139
Methodology 141
Industry Forecast Methodology 141
Sources 143
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 143
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 144
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 145

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