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Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over the longterm. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing toconsumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugarrefineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms ofgrains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to ElNiño. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely toremain a net grains importer over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugarcorporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim ofthe plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.

- Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenyaand Uganda.- 2016 real GDP growth: 7.8% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.5% from 2016 until2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 10.5% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook 11
Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Key Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 13
Grains Outlook 13
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Key Risks To Outlook 14
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2020) 16
Coffee Outlook 16
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Key Risks To Outlook 17
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 18
Commodities Price Analysis 19
Global Commodities Strategy 19
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 19
Featured Analysis 21
African Agriculture: Lower Growth Over Coming Years 21
Table: African Union CAADP Objectives To 2025 22
Table: Indonesia - Select Inward Cocoa Investment Projects 27
Table: Most Popular Brands Are Foreign - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In South Africa In 2014 (%) 30
Upstream Analysis 33
Africa GM Outlook 33
Table: Farm Size By Region 37
Africa Machinery Outlook 39
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 39
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 44
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 45
Regional Overview 52
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 52
Demographic Forecast 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64

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