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Intellinews - Croatia Country Report - January 2013

  • February 2013
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 29 pages

Moody's downgraded on Feb 1 Croatia's government bond rating to Ba1 from Baa3 on poor growth prospects and lack of fiscal flexibility. The action comes as another woe for the Croatian economy after in mid-December S&P lowered Croatia’s credit rating to junk over the scarce evidence of structural and fiscal reform. In January, the EBRD and the World Bank cut their GDP growth projections for this year to 0.8% from previous 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively.

Several weeks later the government, as largely expected, said it will soon revise its 2013 budget to bring it in line with its new worsened GDP growth forecast of just 0.7% for the year compared to previously expected 1.8%. The revision will strive to keep the planed fiscal gap unchanged at some 3% of GDP and as revenues shrink the government will also need to cut expenses if it wants to remain true to its deficit target. As a result, public wages might be cut 3%.

Consumer price inflation accelerated to 5.2% in January from 4.7% in December. Retail sales fell by a real 6.1% on the year in December after declining 5.7% the same pace a month earlier. Industrial production shrank 5.6% on the year in December after dropping 4.3% in November.

The jobless rate jumped to 21.1% in December from 20.4% in November and was above the 18.7% one registered in December 2011. Labour productivity went down 1.3% in 2012 after rising 2.9% in 2011. Average net wages fell by a real 5% y/y in November after shrinking 3.1% a month.

Table Of Contents

Intellinews - Croatia Country Report - January 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

REAL SECTOR
1. GDP, Inflation
2. Industry and Trade
3. Labour Market
4. Tourism

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY

EXTERNAL SECTORS

STRUCTURAL REFORMS

POLITICS



List of Figures

Figure 1 - Annual CPI, PPI inflation
Figure 2 - Croatia jobless rate
Figure 3 - Croatia registered unemployed
Figure 4 - Croatia net wage
Figure 5 - Croatia tourist arrivals
Figure 6 - Croatia c-bank foreign reserves
Figure 7 - Croatia bank loans
Figure 8 - Croatia bank deposits
Figure 9 - Croatia bank assets
Figure 10 - Croatia lending rate
Figure 11 - Croatia average deposits rate
Figure 13 - Croatia foreign debt

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