Asian Mobile Market Forecast 2012-2015

• Publication date: February 2012

ROA Holdings research report, Asian Mobile Market Forecast 2012-2015 provides a comprehensive outlook on the mobile markets of 10 countries in Asia, including China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam. The latest developments in each market, regarding telecommunications, devices and services are being introduced and the report includes forecasts on APRU, churn rate and mobile penetration of eac...

ROA Holdings research report, Asian Mobile Market Forecast 2012-2015 provides a comprehensive outlook on the mobile markets of 10 countries in Asia, including China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam. The latest developments in each market, regarding telecommunications, devices and services are being introduced and the report includes forecasts on APRU, churn rate and mobile penetration of each country from 2008-2015.
 
Summary
 
Among the Asian mobile markets, Korea and Japan by adopting 3G at an early stage, have been leading the region in terms of technology, and various kind of services providing diversified contents have been diffused within Asia. While the mobile subscriber numbers of Korea and Japan have been reaching saturation, the rest of the Asian countries are catching up to become the center of growth in Asia. 
 
ROA Holdings has selected 10 countries in Asia that are assumed to show key movements in the near future. The total number of mobile subscribers in both China and India are currently occupying almost 75% of the rest of the 10 countries, and Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, as well as Vietnam are following them with a rapid growth rate.
 
It is estimated that the total number of global mobile subscribers will reach approximately 7 billion by 2015 and the proportion of Asia is expected to be 65% of the total, forming the most significant region among the world mobile markets.
 
The smartphone penetration rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam is quite high, since Symbian-based smartphones were commonly used before iPhone OS or Android phones were launched. In the Philippines and India, due to low GDP per capita as well as the popularity of web-enabled feature phones, the smartphone penetration rate appears lower compared to other Southeast Asian countries.
 
Regarding Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, these countries used to adopt quite sophisticated feature phones before iPhone or Android OS phones entered the market, however, recently the market share of iPhone and Android OS smartphones continues to increase rapidly, especially in Korea where the mobile carriers aggressively market 3G and 4G smartphones, supported by the local vendors Samsung, LGE and Pantech.
 
In 2008, the ARPU of India, Philippines and Vietnam used to be more than USD 5, but continue to show a decreasing trend, and will reach the USD 3-4 level by 2015, following the declining ARPU pattern among the 10 Asian countries.
 
Concerning mobile penetration, India will experience a three-fold growth by 2015, and also China, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam will also see a significant increase in mobile subscribers. Mobile carriers in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are focusing on strategies aiming at maintaining their subscribers since the CAGR of mobile subscribers in these countries is 5% or less, making it difficult to expand their subscriber bases in the future.
 
In terms of churn rate, Vietnam and Indonesia that offer mostly prepaid services have quite a high churn rate that surpasses 10 %. India, Philippines, China, and Malaysia are also depending on prepaid, but their churn rates are within the range of 3% to 6%, due to characteristics in each country and regulatory issues, such as mobile number portability. Singapore has an equal share of both prepaid and postpaid, forming a unique mobile market compared to the other Asian countries.

Companies Mentioned:

China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, Nokia, Samsung, Apple, RIM, LGE, SonyEricsson, Pantech, ZTE, Huawei, Motorola, Lenovo, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Bharti, RCOM, Vodafone-Essar, BSNL, HTC, Indosat, XL Axiata, Telkomsel, Docomo, KDDI, SoftBank, NEC Casio, Sharp, Fujitsu, SK Telecom, KT, LG U +, Maxis, Celcom, U-Mobile, DiGi, Smart Communications, Globe Telecom, Sun Cellular, PLDT, Singtel, StarHub, M1, Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Telecom, FarEasTone, APBW, Vibo, Vinaphone, MobiFone, Viettel, EVN Telecom, FPT Telecom, VNPT.
 
This report has 105 pages and 25 Figures.

Wireless Technology Industry in Japan

Table of Contents
 
Introduction 
 
1 China 
   1-1 Overview 
          1-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Chinese Market 
          1-1-2 Key Comments on the Chinese Mobile Market 
   1-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          1-2-1 Current Status 
          1-2-2 Future Movement 
          1-2-3 Player Strategy 
   1-3 Device Dynamics 
          1-3-1 Current Status 
          1-3-2 Future Movement 
          1-3-3 Player Strategy 
   1-4 Service Dynamics 
          1-4-1 Current Status 
          1-4-2 Future Movement 
          1-4-3 Player Strategy 
2 India 
   2-1 Overview 
           2-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Indian Market 
           2-1-2 Key Comments on the Indian Mobile Market 
   2-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          2-2-1 Current Status 
          2-2-2 Future Movement 
          2-2-3 Player Strategy 
   2-3 Device Dynamics 
         2-3-1 Current Status 
         2-3-2 Future Movement 
         2-3-3 Player Strategy 
   2-4 Service Dynamics 
         2-4-1 Current Status 
         2-4-2 Future Movement 
         2-4-3 Player Strategy 
3 Indonesia 
   3-1 Overview 
         3-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Indonesian Market 
         3-1-2 Key Comments on the Indonesian Mobile Market 
  3-2 Telecom Dynamics 
         3-2-1 Current Status 
         3-2-2 Future Movement 
         3-2-3 Player Strategy 
   3-3 Device Dynamics 
          3-3-1 Current Status 
          3-3-2 Future Movement 
          3-3-3 Player Strategy 
   3-4 Service Dynamics 
          3-4-1 Current Status 
          3-4-2 Future Movement 
          3-4-3 Player Strategy 
4 Japan 
   4-1 Overview 
          4-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Japanese Market 
          4-1-2 Key Comments on the Japanese Mobile Market 
   4-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          4-2-1 Current Status 
          4-2-2 Future Movement 
          4-2-3 Player Strategy 
   4-3 Device Dynamics 
          4-3-1 Current Status 
          4-3-2 Future Movement 
          4-3-3 Player Strategy 
   4-4 Service Dynamics 
          4-4-1 Current Status 
          4-4-2 Future Movement 
          4-4-3 Player Strategy 
5 Korea 
   5-1 Overview 
          5-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Korean Market 
          5-1-2 Key Comments on the Korean Mobile Market 
   5-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          5-2-1 Current Status 
          5-2-2 Future Movement 
          5-2-3 Player Strategy 
   5-3 Device Dynamics 
          5-3-1 Current Status 
          5-3-2 Future Movement 
          5-3-3 Player Strategy 
   5-4 Service Dynamics 
          5-4-1 Current Status 
          5-4-2 Future Movement 
          5-4-3 Player Strategy 
6 Malaysia 
   6-1 Overview 
          6-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Malaysian Market 
          6-1-2 Key Comments on the Malaysian Mobile Market 
   6-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          6-2-1 Current Status 
          6-2-2 Future Movement 
          6-2-3 Player Strategy 
   6-3 Device Dynamics 
          6-3-1 Current Status 
          6-3-2 Future Movement 
          6-3-3 Player Strategy 
   6-4 Service Dynamics 
          6-4-1 Current Status 
          6-4-2 Future Movement 
          6-4-3 Player Strategy 
7 Philippines 
   7-1 Overview 
          7-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Philippine Market 
          7-1-2 Key Comments on the Philippine Mobile Market 
   7-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          7-2-1 Current Status 
          7-2-2 Future Movement 
          7-2-3 Player Strategy 
   7-3 Device Dynamics 
          7-3-1 Current Status 
          7-3-2 Future Movement 
          7-3-3 Player Strategy 
   7-4 Service Dynamics 
          7-4-1 Current Status 
          7-4-2 Future Movement 
          7-4-3 Player Strategy 
8 Singapore 
   8-1 Overview 
          8-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Singaporean Market 
          8-1-2 Key Comments on the Singaporean Mobile Market 
   8-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          8-2-1 Current Status 
          8-2-2 Future Movement 
          8-2-3 Player Strategy 
   8-3 Device Dynamics 
          8-3-1 Current Status 
          8-3-2 Future Movement 
          8-3-3 Player Strategy 
   8-4 Service Dynamics 
          8-4-1 Current Status 
          8-4-2 Future Movement 
          8-4-3 Player Strategy 
9 Taiwan 
   9-1 Overview 
          9-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Taiwanese Market 
          9-1-2 Key Comments on the Taiwanese Mobile Market 
   9-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          9-2-1 Current Status 
          9-2-2 Future Movement 
          9-2-3 Player Strategy 
   9-3 Device Dynamics 
          9-3-1 Current Status 
          9-3-2 Future Movement 
          9-3-3 Player Strategy 
   9-4 Service Dynamics 
          9-4-1 Current Status 
          9-4-2 Future Movement 
          9-4-3 Player Strategy 
10 Vietnam 
   10-1 Overview 
          10-1-1 Economic Dynamics in the Vietnamese Market 
          10-1-2 Key Comments on the Vietnamese Mobile Market 
   10-2 Telecom Dynamics 
          10-2-1 Current Status 
          10-2-2 Future Movement 
          10-2-3 Player Strategy 
   10-3 Device Dynamics 
          10-3-1 Current Status 
          10-3-2 Future Movement
          10-3-3 Player Strategy 
   10-4 Service Dynamics 
          10-4-1 Current Status 
          10-4-2 Future Movement 
          10-4-3 Player Strategy 
Appendix 

List of Figures

[Figure 0-1] Asia Mobile Subscriber Landscape 2008-2015 (unit: 000)
[Figure 0-2] Asia Smartphone Penetration 2011
[Figure 0-3] Asia Mobile Expenditure Index 2008-2015 (ARPU / GDP per Capita)
[Figure 0-4] ARPU and Mobile Penetration in Asia (Gray: 2008, Orange: 2015)
[Figure 0-5] Asia Churn rate vs. Prepaid Penetration in 2011
[Figure 1-1] Chinese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 1-2] Chinese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 2-1] Indian Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 2-2] Indian Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 3-1] Indonesian Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 3-2] Indonesian Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 4-1] Japanese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 4-2] Japanese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 5-1] Korean Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 5-2] Korean Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 6-1] Malaysian Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 6-2] Malaysian Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 7-1] Philippine Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 7-2] Philippine Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 8-1] Singaporean Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 8-2] Singaporean Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 9-1] Taiwanese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 9-2] Taiwanese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 10-1] Vietnamese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)
[Figure 10-2] Vietnamese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

4g in Japan

Japan Number Of 3g & 4g Phone Subscribers (`000)

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2003 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: Operators, World Bank (International Telecommunications Union (ITU)), BMI research

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan Number Of 3g & 4g Phone Subscribers/100 Inhabitants

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2003 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: Operators, World Bank (International Telecommunications Union (ITU)), BMI research

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan Number Of 3g & 4g Phone Subscribers, % Change Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2004 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: Operators, World Bank (International Telecommunications Union (ITU)), BMI research

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan Number Of 3g & 4g Phone Subscribers/100 Inhabitants, % Change Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2004 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: Operators, World Bank (International Telecommunications Union (ITU)), BMI research

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan 3g & 4g Market As % Of Entire Mobile Market, % Change Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2004 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: Operators, World Bank (International Telecommunications Union (ITU)), BMI research

• Industries : Wireless Technology, Mobile Telephony
• Countries : Japan

Wireless Technology in Japan

Japan Wireless Service And Wireless Equipment Revenues, Jpymn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2011
By Business Monitor International
Source: BMI, operator results

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan Wireless Service And Wireless Equipment Revenues (eurmn)

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2011
By Business Monitor International
Source: BMI, operator results

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan Wireless Voice And Wireless Data Revenue, Jpymn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2011
By Business Monitor International
Source: BMI, operator results

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan Wireless Voice And Wireless Data Revenue, Eurmn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2011
By Business Monitor International
Source: BMI, operator results

• Industries : Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan

Japan Number Of Cellular Mobile Phone Subscribers, % Change Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2004 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: Operators, World Bank (International Telecommunications Union (ITU)), BMI research

• Industries : Mobile Telephony, Wireless Technology
• Countries : Japan