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  5. > Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect Zimbabwe to remain a net corn importer over the longer term. Over the next fiveyears, we expect production of the grain to demonstrate moderate growth, although production will remainwell below the totals seen in the early 2000s and much of the growth will be in the form of a recovery. Weare more optimistic regarding the sugar sector, where access to key markets and potential for productivityimprovements will drive production over the long term. Although we forecast a domestic sugar marketsurplus, the sector remains below potential and our forecasts are relatively subdued despite ourexpectations for higher average prices than current levels in the coming years.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production to 2019/20: 31% on the 2015/16 level to 1.1mn tonnes. We project relatively stronggrowth over the long term, but the country will remain a net importer, as most of this growth is due tobase effects.- Sugar production to 2019/20: 17% on the 2015/16 level to 584,800 tonnes. An overall improvement insugarcane yields, greater efficiency of mills and long-term access to export markets will be key drivers ofproduction growth.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.1%, up from -0.9% in 2015, forecast to average 2.9% between 2016 and2020.

- 2016 consumer price deflation: 1.3% annual average (compared to -2.1% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT 6
Agribusiness 6
Industry Forecast 8
Grains Outlook 8
Table: Zimbabwe - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 8
Table: Risks To Outlook 9
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020) 10
Sugar Outlook 11
Table: Zimbabwe - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020) 13
Commodity Price Analysis 14
Global Commodities Strategy 14
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 14
Upstream Analysis 16
Africa GM Outlook 16
Table: Farm Size By Region 20
Africa Machinery Outlook 22
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 22
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 27
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 28
Regional Overview 35
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 35
Competitive Landscape 41
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 41
Demographic Forecast 42
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 43
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 43
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 44
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 44
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 45
Methodology 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sector-Specific Methodology 48

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