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Intellinews - Montenegro Country Report - March 2013

  • March 2013
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 13 pages

The EC revised down its forecast for Montenegro's economic growth in 2013 as tax increases are seen weighing on domestic demand. The Commission’s projection is also lower than the government's expectation for 2.5% growth this year. Still, recovery of bank lending or the opening of some large investments before end-2013 could support economic growth.

In January, the annual consumer and producer inflation slowed. Industrial output increased during the month on the back of improved utilities performance but the manufacturing sector continued to push the index down.

On the fiscal side, the IMF warned that Montenegro should urgently implement additional budget consolidation measures in order to tame public debt growth and achieve its budget deficit target in 2013.

Recent developments drew the attention to aluminium plant KAP at the end of February - CEAC, part of Russia's En+ Group of Oleg Deripaska, offered to transfer its 29.4% stake in KAP to the government, which also already holds 29.4%, and receive EUR 51mn in return.

Table Of Contents

Intellinews - Montenegro Country Report - March 2013
Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
REAL SECTOR
1. GDP
2. Inflation
Montenegro's CPI inflation eases to 4.2% in Jan 2013.
Montenegro's harmonised inflation eases to 3.8% y/y in Jan 2013.
Montenegro's PPI inflation slows down to 4.6% y/y in Jan 2013.
3. Industry and Trade
Montenegro's retail sales rise 9.5% in Jan 2013.
4. Labour Market
Montenegro's average net wage drops 3% y/y in Jan 2013.
Montenegro's unemployment rate up to 13.7% as of Jan 28.
5. Tourism
FISCAL SECTOR
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
Montenegro's bank assets post zero growth as of end-2012.
Montenegro's bank deposits up 9% y/y at end-Dec 2012
EXTERNAL SECTOR
STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS
POLITICAL NEWS
Main opponents in Montenegrin presidential vote launch election campaigns.



List of Tables

Table 1 Montenegro: GDP
Table 2 CPI, %, y/y
Table 3 Montenegro: Industrial output, %, y/y
Table 4 Montenegro: Total assets of commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Table 6 Montenegro: Deposits held at commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Table 7 External Trade Montenegro



List of Figures

Figure 1 Montenegro Producer Price Index
Figure 2 Montenegro Industrial Output
Figure 3 Montenegro Average Wage
Figure 4 Montenegro Bank Assets
Figure 6 Montenegro Bank Deposits

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