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Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 92 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook on Ghana's oil and gas production in the medium term, as theflagship Jubilee field ramps up output and TEN and Sankofa are brought on stream. However, the country'slong-term prospects grow increasingly crowded due to the ongoing maritime boundary dispute with Côted'Ivoire and continued fiscal and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration activity has been highly constrained,exacerbated by the sharp fall in global oil prices. The downstream sector will continue to perform poorly,due to ageing and inefficient infrastructure and a lack of investment in new capacity.

The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:

- Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore. Although our reserves forecasts remainmodest, we acknowledge strong upside risk from continued exploration.

- Exploration may be constrained over the next three to four years, as a maritime boundary dispute withCôte d'Ivoire and delays passing the new petroleum law weigh on activity.

- Due to the moratorium on gas flaring, associated gas production at Jubilee has acted as a majorbottleneck on oil output. However, with Atuabo brought online in the fourth quarter of 2014, followingstrong oil and gas production growth from 2015, we forecast continued growth in 2016.

- Rising demand in the domestic power sector will drive robust gas consumption growth - substantial LNGimports will be needed to meet this demand, given limited scope for pipeline import growth.

- Fuels consumption growth will be more moderate, dragged down by domestic fuels price liberalisation,FX weakness and falling demand for oil-fired power generation.

- The outlook on Ghana's downstream is bearish, due to poor operational efficiencies at the Tema OilRefinery and the weak commercial viability of proposed upgrade and expansion projects.

Table Of Contents

Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Table: Tano Basin Blocks Exploration, 2007-2013 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2014-2019) 19
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025) 33
Gas Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Oil 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Crude Oil 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019) 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) 39
Refined Fuels 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) 41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019) 45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) 45
Industry Risk Reward Index 46
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 49
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 52
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 52
Ghana - Risk/Reward Index 54
Market Overview 55
Ghana Energy Market Overview 55
Regulatory Overview 55
Licensing Regime 56
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms 56
Fiscal Regime 57
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms 57
Licensing Rounds 57
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 58
Oil Refineries 58
Table: Ghana Oil Refineries 58
Oil Storage Facilities 58
Table: Ghana Main Oil Storage Facilities 58
Oil Trade Facilities 59
Table: Ghana Main Oil Trade Facilities 59
Competitive Landscape 60
Competitive Landscape Summary 60
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector 61
Table: Key Upstream Players 61
Table: Key Downstream Player 62
Company Profile 63
Kosmos Energy 63
Tullow Oil 67
Other Summaries 71
Regional Overview 76
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 76
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 84
Glossary 85
Table: Glossary Of Terms 85
Methodology 87
Industry Forecast Methodology 87
Source 89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 89
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 91
Table: Weighting 92

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