Belgium Business Forecast Report Q3 2013

Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Fiscal Reform: Feeling The Squeeze
Belgium has missed its fiscal deficit target for 2012 on the back of a sputtering economy and the bailout of troubled Franco-Belgian bank
Dexia. This has motivated a further round of spending cuts and the proposed sale of state assets. Despite shouldering a large public
debt burden, a relatively modest fiscal deficit and significant stock of state assets that could be sold off suggests that the government
has significant room to manoeuvre going forward.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 11
Economic Activity 12
Weak But Positive Growth In 2013
The Belgian economy has experienced successive quarters of positive followed by negative growth in 2012, with the outlook for 2013
being similarly subdued. Although the macro fundamentals warrant a relatively more favourable assessment compared to the eurozone
for this year, the economy will nonetheless not escape the drag from deepening recessions in the periphery. As such, we forecast
almost zero growth for 2013 with the risks tilted to the downside.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 12
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 13
Chapter 3: Key Sectors 15
Freight Transport 15
TABLE: ROAD FREIGHT, 2010-2017 16
TABLE: INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT, 2010-2017 17
TABLE: AIR FREIGHT, 2010-2017 18
TABLE: RAIL FREIGHT, 2010-2017 18
TABLE: MARITIME FREIGHT, 2010-2017 19
Metals 21
TABLE: STEEL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION ('000 TONNES, UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE) 21
Other Key Sectors 23
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS 23
TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS 23
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS 24
TABLE: FREIGHT KEY INDICATORS 24
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 25
Global Outlook 25
Lowering Our US And Eurozone Growth Forecasts
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 25
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH,% 26
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS,% 26
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH,% 27

Maritime Freight in Belgium

Logistics and Freight in Belgium