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Canada Mining Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Canada's mining sector will continue to contract through 2017, due to structurally lowermineral prices. The country will remain a major mining industry in the Americas, returning to value growthbeyond 2017 as prices stabilise and reinvigorate project investment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Canada, a leading country in the mineral extractive industry, will continue to see a decline in miningindustry value growth over the next few years due to weak prices. We forecast Canada's mining industryvalue to contract by 10.5% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, returning to growth as prices stabilise andaveraging 3.6% annual growth over 2018-2020.

- Key themes of slow growth, delayed projects, and cost-cutting efforts will persist across the country'smining sector. Canada's nickel sector will be the sector's production growth bright spot, averaging 4.2%y-o-y growth over 2016-2020. Nickel's relative outperformance will be supported by a stronger recoveryin prices.

- Canada's gold sector will continue to see consolidation and divestment among junior miners due topersistently weak gold prices. The sector will experience muted growth, as the weak price environmentdelays projects. We forecast the country's gold output to edge higher, from 4.9 million ounces (moz) in2016 to 5.2moz by 2020, averaging 1.6% annual growth.

- The country's mining sector will be hurt by slowing demand growth in Asia, with iron ore exports toChina falling in 2015. On the other hand, the country's refined metal exports will fare better, supported bythe Indonesian ban on nickel ore exports and a tightening zinc market. For instance, both refined nickeland zinc exports increased in 2015.

Table Of Contents

Canada Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Canada Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
SWOT: Canada - Q3 2016 8
Industry Forecast 10
Gold: Weak Prices Weigh On Output Growth 10
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2020) 10
Table: Canada - Key Gold Projects 10
Structural Trends 11
Iron Ore: Projects To Remain Delayed 14
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2020) 15
Table: Canada - Key Iron Ore Projects 15
Structural Trends 15
Nickel: Growth To Pick Up 17
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2020) 18
Table: Canada - Key Nickel Projects 18
Structural Trends 18
Indonesian Ban Boosts Canadian Exports 20
Zinc: Production To Decline Through 2016 22
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2020) 22
Structural Trends 22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Canada: Risk/Reward Index 25
Rewards 25
Industry Rewards 25
Country Rewards 25
Risks 25
Industry Risks 25
Country Risks 26
Americas: Risk/Reward Index 26
Key Takeaways 26
Latest Revisions 27
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index 28
Regulatory Development 29
Commodities Forecast 33
Commodities Outlook 33
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 33
Competitive Landscape 34
Table: Canada - Select Companies Financial Data, 2015 35
Company Profile 36
Company Profile - Teck Resources - Q3 2016 36
Table: Teck Resources - Key Financial Data 38
Barrick Gold - Q3 2016 40
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 42
Company Strategy 45
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Projects 46
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data 47
Goldcorp - Q3 2016 48
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 50
Table: Goldcorp - Key Projects 55
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data 56
Regional Overview 57
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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